A propensity score matching approach on predicting academic success of primary school students

School career and academic achievement are known to greatly affect an individual’s path through life (e.g., Trapmann, Hell, Weigand & Schuler, 2007; Jimerson, 2001). In Luxembourg, recent findings indicate that at school entrance (i.e., the beginning of Grade 1) the majority of the students achieve or even surpass the required minimum level of core competencies such as mathematics and early literacy (Hoffmann, Hornung, Gamo, Esch, Keller, & Fischbach, 2018). However, in Grade 3 (i.e., after the first two years of elementary school) many students do no longer achieve the required minimum level of competencies in math and literacy (ibid.). Especially students with another language background than (any of) the official languages in Luxembourg (Luxembourgish, German, and French) and those socio-economically disadvantaged were found to be more likely not to obtain the competency level (ibid.). The current study aims to investigate which specific factors may facilitate (or hinder) learning progression by using longitudinal data of the Luxembourg School Monitoring Programme Épreuves Standardisées from Grade 1 (2014, 2015) to Grade 3 (2016, 2017, 2018). More specifically, students with irregular pathways (i.e., those who experienced grade retention) will be identified as treatment group and compared to a stratified control group of students following regular pathways. For each student of the treatment group, one or more students from the control group will be matched through propensity score matching, a matching procedure based on logistic regression, according to different pre-sets of variables. In a second step, the two groups will be compared in regards to competency levels as well as to socio-emotional context variables such as family background, student-teacher interaction, and school satisfaction aiming at identifying characteristics potentially facilitating (or hindering) a student’s school career.