Article (Scientific journals)
Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis
Proverbio, Daniele; Kemp, Francoise; Magni, Stefano et al.
2022In Science of the Total Environment, 827, p. 154235
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Keywords :
Covid-19; Wastewater-based epidemiology; Surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction (SWEEP); Epidemiological modelling; Kalman filter; Early warning system
Abstract :
[en] Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective approach for epidemic monitoring and the development of an effective warning system. However, its quantitative link to the epidemic status and the stages of outbreak is still elusive. Modelling is thus crucial to address these challenges. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model-based approach to reconstruct the complete epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. Our approach integrates noisy wastewater data and daily case numbers into a dynamical epidemiological model. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, it quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. Following its quantitative analysis, we also provide recommendations for wastewater data standards and for their use as warning indicators against new infection waves. In situations of reduced testing capacity, our modelling approach can enhance the surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction and robust and cost-effective real-time monitoring of local COVID-19 dynamics.
Disciplines :
Life sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Immunology & infectious disease
Author, co-author :
Proverbio, Daniele ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
Kemp, Francoise ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling
Magni, Stefano ;  University of Luxembourg
Ogorzaly, Leslie ;  Luxembourg Institute of Science & Technology - LIST > Environmental Research and Innovation Department
Cauchie, Henry-Michel ;  Luxembourg Institute of Science & Technology - LIST > Environmental Research and Innovation Department
Goncalves, Jorge ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
Skupin, Alexander  ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling
Aalto, Atte ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
External co-authors :
no
Language :
English
Title :
Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis
Publication date :
2022
Journal title :
Science of the Total Environment
ISSN :
1879-1026
Publisher :
Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Volume :
827
Pages :
154235
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Focus Area :
Computational Sciences
Systems Biomedicine
FnR Project :
FNR13684479 - Dynamics Modelling From Single-cell Data, 2019 (01/12/2019-...) - Atte Aalto
Funders :
FNR - Fonds National de la Recherche [LU]
Available on ORBilu :
since 18 November 2021

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