Mapping First Grader's Numerical Development at Scale: Leveraging Cognitive Models in a Large-Scale Educational Assessment

SONNLEITNER, Philipp; Inostroza Fernández, Pamela; HORNUNG, Caroline

doi:10.1080/10627197.2026.2633512

Article (Scientific journals)

Mapping First Grader's Numerical Development at Scale: Leveraging Cognitive Models in a Large-Scale Educational Assessment

SONNLEITNER, Philipp; Inostroza Fernández, Pamela; HORNUNG, Caroline

2026 • In Educational Assessment, p. 1-22

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

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https://hdl.handle.net/10993/67976

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10.1080/10627197.2026.2633512

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Keywords :

Large-scale assessment, cognitive diagnostic models, mathematical development, early numeracy

Abstract :

[en] Large-scale assessments (LSAs) primarily support system-level monitoring, but their instructional diagnostic potential remains underused. Cognitive Diagnostic Models (CDMs) offer a promising avenue, though their application in LSAs poses theoretical and practical challenges. This study explores whether cognitive models used in item generation can directly inform Q-matrix construction for CDM analyses, enhancing diagnostic value in early numeracy assessment. Using data from Luxembourg's school monitoring program (N = 2,704), we analyzed four cognitive attributes (counting, addition < 10, decomposition, addition > 10) using developmental frameworks. We compared a Single-Attribute Hierarchical Model, assuming linear progression, with a Multiple-Attribute Hierarchical Model, allowing skill interactions. Both hierarchical models reproduced expected developmental progressions, with decomposition emerging as a key threshold skill and socioeconomic status showing the largest subgroup differences. Subgroup analyses revealed a smaller-than-expected impact of migration background, while math anxiety peaked at intermediate skill levels. Embedding cognitive models in LSAs can bridge system-level monitoring and instructional support.

Disciplines :

Education & instruction

Author, co-author :

SONNLEITNER, Philipp ; University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Humanities, Education and Social Sciences (FHSE) > LUCET

Inostroza Fernández, Pamela; Innovation Department, Universidad de los

HORNUNG, Caroline ; University of Luxembourg

External co-authors :

yes

Language :

English

Title :

Mapping First Grader's Numerical Development at Scale: Leveraging Cognitive Models in a Large-Scale Educational Assessment

Publication date :

2026

Journal title :

Educational Assessment

ISSN :

1062-7197

eISSN :

1532-6977

Publisher :

Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, United States

Pages :

1-22

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

FnR Project :

FNR13650128 - FAIR-ITEMS - Fairness Of Latest Innovations In Item And Test Development In Mathematics, 2019 (01/09/2020-31/08/2023) - Philipp Sonnleitner

Name of the research project :

R-AGR-3682 - C19/SC/13650128/FAIR-ITEMS - SONNLEITNER Philipp

Funders :

FNR - Fonds National de la Recherche

Funding number :

C19/SC/13650128

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since 10 March 2026

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