Carbon emission trading scheme; China; Climate transition risk; Debt financing cost; Difference-in-difference model; Listed high-carbon firms; Finance; Economics and Econometrics; Listed high -carbon firms; Difference -in -difference model
Abstract :
[en] The pursuit of carbon neutrality by China signifies the country's resolute commitment to proactively tackle climate change. However, traditional energy firms, which function as the pillars of the domestic economy, surely face a significant challenge in the form of “decarbonization.” In light of climate transition risks, this study employs the difference-in-difference (DID) model to investigate the impact of China's carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on the debt financing costs of listed high-carbon firms (HCFs). The findings indicate that the significant increase in debt financing costs of HCFs under ETS can be attributed to the “dual vulnerability” that HCFs exhibit, consisting of heightened credit risk and a diminished environmental reputation. Specifically, the implementation of ETS regulations results in elevated operating costs and future cash flow risks for firms, which subsequently escalates credit risk. This is especially true for establishments situated in regions characterized by high carbon emissions and high scores on the Low Carbon Economic Transition Assessment Index. Such data suggests creditors are progressively placing greater emphasis on the reputation of low-carbon environmental practices. Additional study suggests that firms that possess inferior qualification endowments, less external financing capabilities, and weaker risk-diverting capabilities are more susceptible to the effects of ETS and are subjected to more transformation pressure. The findings of this research hold substantial importance in terms of advancing ETS initiatives in a concentrated, phased, and clustered fashion, guaranteeing technological advancements and seamless transitions for HCFs throughout the carbon peak cycle, and eventually bolstering society's climate adaptability as a whole.
Disciplines :
Finance
Author, co-author :
Ren, Yi-Shuai; School of Public Administration, Hunan University, China ; Research Institute of Digital Society and Blockchain, Hunan University, China ; Center for Resource and Environmental Management, Hunan University, China ; The Energy Centre, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
DEROUICHE, Imen ; University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance (FDEF) > Department of Economics and Management (DEM)
Hassan, Majdi; ESSEC Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunisia
Liu, Pei-Zhi ; China Tobacco Hunan Industrial Company Ltd, Changsha, China ; YGU Digital Economy Academy (YGDEA), Yango University, Fuzhou, China
External co-authors :
yes
Language :
English
Title :
Do creditors price climate transition risks? A natural experiment based on China's carbon emission trading scheme
China Association for Science and Technology National Natural Science Foundation of China Hunan University Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences Chinese National Funding of Social Sciences
Funding text :
This work is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72104075 , 72274056 ), the National Social Science Fund of China (No. 19AZD014 ), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (No. 2022JJ40106 ), China Association for Science and Technology (No. 20220615ZZ07110402 ), Hunan Social Science Achievement Review Committee under Grant (No. XSP21YBC087 ) and Hunan University Youth Talent Program .
Agliardi, E., Agliardi, R., Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market. Journal of Financial Stability, 54, 2021, 100868.
Altman, E.I., Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23, 1968, 589‒609.
Balachandran, B., Nguyen, J.H., Does carbon risk matter in firm dividend policy? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in an imputation environment. Journal of Banking & Finance 96 (2018), 249–267.
Ben-Nasr, H., Boubaker, S., Sassi, S., Board reforms and debt choice. Journal of Corporate Finance, 69, 2021, 102009.
BIS. Principles for the management of credit risk, final document. Basel committee on banking 2 supervision, 2000.
BIS. The green swan: Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change. 2020.
Bolton, P., Kacperczyk, M., Do investors care about carbon risk?. Journal of Financial Economics 142:2 (2021), 517–549.
Boubaker, S., Cellier, A., Manita, R., Saeed, A., Does corporate social responsibility reduce financial distress risk?. Economic Modelling 91 (2020), 835–851.
Boubaker, S., Cumming, D., Nguyen, D.K., (eds.) Research handbook of finance and sustainability, 2018, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Boubaker, S., Liu, P.Z., Ren, Y.S., Ma, C.Q., Do anti-corruption campaigns affect corporate environmental responsibility? Evidence from China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 91, 2024, 102961.
Boubaker, S., Liu, Z., Zhan, Y., Customer relationships, corporate social responsibility, and stock price reaction: Lessons from China during health crisis times. Finance Research Letters, 47, 2022, 102699.
Boubaker, S., Nguyen, D., (eds.) Board directors and corporate social responsibility, 2012, Springer.
Boubaker, S., Ni, X., Yin, D., Inalienable human capital and debt choice: Evidence from quasi-exogenous shocks. 2021.
Bushnell, J.B., Chong, H., Mansur, E.T., Profiting from regulation: Evidence from the European carbon market. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4), 2013, 78‒106.
Cai, M., Ren, S., Corporate financialization: A literature review. Finance and Economics 7 (2014), 41–51 (In Chinese).
Chen, S., Evaluation of low carbon transformation process for Chinese provinces. Economic Research Journal 8 (2012), 32–44 (In Chinese).
Chen, C., Jiang, D., Lan, M., Li, W., Ye, L., Does environmental regulation affect labor investment efficiency? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. International Review of Economics & Finance 80 (2022), 82–95.
Chen, X.Q., Ma, C.Q., Ren, Y.S., Lei, Y.T., Carbon allowance auction design of China's ETS: A comprehensive hierarchical system based on blockchain. International Review of Economics & Finance 88 (2023), 1003–1019.
Chen, Z.H., Ren, F., Yang, M.Y., Lu, F.Z., Li, S.P., Dynamic lead–lag relationship between Chinese carbon emission trading and stock markets under exogenous shocks. International Review of Economics & Finance 85 (2023), 295–305.
Chen, Z., Zhang, X., Chen, F., Do carbon emission trading schemes stimulate green innovation in enterprises? Evidence from China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 168, 2021, 120744.
Cohen, W., Klepper, S., Firm size and the nature of innovation within industries: The case of process and product R&D. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 1996, 232‒243.
Coulson, A.B., Monks, V., Corporate environmental performance considerations within bank lending decisions. The Journal of Corporate Environmental Management, 6(1), 1999, 1‒10.
Deng, L., Liu, R.Q., Liao, M.Q., Earnings management, financial marketization and excess bank loans. Journal of Management Sciences in China 22:2 (2019), 22–35 (In Chinese).
Diaz-Rainey, I., Gehricke, S.A., Roberts, H., Zhang, R., Trump vs. Paris: the impact of climate policy on US listed oil and gas firm returns and volatility. International Review of Financial Analysis, 76, 2021, 101746.
Dong, F., Dai, Y., Zhang, S., Zhang, X., Long, R., Can a carbon emission trading scheme generate the porter effect? Evidence from pilot areas in China. Science of The Total Environment, 653, 2019, 565‒577.
Du, Y., Zhang, H., Chen, J.Y., The impact of financialization on future development of real enterprises' core business: Promotion or inhibition. China Industrial Economics 12 (2017), 113–131 (In Chinese).
Ehlers, T., Packer, F., De Greiff, K., The pricing of carbon risk in syndicated loans: Which risks are priced and why?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 136, 2022, 106180.
Fan, X.Y., Fang, C., He, Q., Who is pushing up the corporate debt cost—an inspection of the government debt “portfolio effect”. Finance & Trade Economics 1 (2017), 51–65 (In Chinese).
Guo, C., Su, W., Song, X., Hu, X., Heterogeneous debt financing and environmental research & development: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics & Finance 82 (2022), 65–81.
Huang, B., Punzi, M.T., Wu, Y., Do banks price environmental transition risks? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 69, 2021, 101983.
Huang, R., Zhang, S., Wang, P., Key areas and pathways for carbon emissions reduction in Beijing for the “Dual Carbon” targets. Energy Policy, 164, 2022, 112873.
IEA. World energy outlook 2013. 2013 Paris.
In, S.Y., Weyant, J.P., Manav, B., Pricing climate-related risks of energy investments. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 154, 2022, 111881.
Jacobson, L.S., LaLonde, R.J., Sullivan, D.G., Earnings losses of displaced workers. 1993, The American Economic Review.
Jung, J., Herbohn, K., Clarkson, P., Carbon risk, carbon risk awareness, and the cost of debt financing. Journal of Bussiness Ethics 150 (2018), 1151–1171.
Kleimeier, S., Viehs, M., Pricing carbon risk: Investor preferences or risk mitigation?. Economics Letters, 2021, 109936.
Lang, Q., Ma, F., Mirza, N., Umar, M., The interaction of climate risk and bank liquidity: An emerging market perspective for transitions to low carbon energy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 191, 2023, 122480.
Lei, Y.T., Ma, C.Q., Mirza, N., Ren, Y.S., Narayan, S.W., Chen, X.Q., A renewable energy microgrids trading management platform based on permissioned blockchain. Energy Economics, 115, 2022, 106375.
Li, L., Gao, H., Chen, J., Signaling games for high-tech enterprises bank lending. Economic Research Journal 50:6 (2015), 162–174 (In Chinese).
Li, X., Li, Z., Su, C.W., Umar, M., Shao, X., Exploring the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's carbon emissions trading market price: Do different types of uncertainty matter?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 178, 2022, 121601.
Li, G.Z., Liu, L., The cost of debt financing and discrimination in private credit. Journal of Finance Research(12), 2009, 137–150 (In Chinese).
Li, C., Qi, Y., Liu, S., Wang, X., Do carbon ETS pilots improve cities' green total factor productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Energy Economics, 108, 2022, 105931.
Lin, B., Huang, C., Analysis of emission reduction effects of carbon trading: Market mechanism or government intervention?. Sustainable Production and Consumption 33 (2022), 28–37.
Lin, B., Wu, N., Will the China's carbon emissions market increase the risk-taking of its enterprises?. International Review of Economics & Finance 77 (2022), 413–434.
Liu, C., Ma, C., Xie, R., Structural, innovation and efficiency effects of environmental regulation: Evidence from China's carbon emissions trading pilot. Environmental and Resource Economics 75 (2020), 741–768.
Liu, P., Qiao, H., How does China's decarbonization policy influence the value of carbon-intensive firms?. Finance Research Letters, 2021, 102141.
Lyu, J., Cao, M., Wu, K., Li, H., Price volatility in the carbon market in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 255, 2020, 120171.
Ma, J., Sun, T.Y., Analysis methods and applications of climate transition risks and physical risks - taking coal power and mortgage loans as examples. Tsinghua Financial Review(9), 2020, 31–35 (In Chinese).
McGlade, C., Ekins, P., The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C. Nature, 517, 2015, 187‒190.
Megginson, W.L., Ullah, B., Wei, Z., State ownership, soft-budget constraints, and cash holdings: Evidence from China's privatized firms. Journal of Banking & Finance 48 (2014), 276–291.
Modigliani, F., Miller, M.H., The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review, 48(3), 1958, 261‒297.
Myers, S.C., Majluf, N.S., Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics 13:2 (1984), 187–221.
Nguyen, Q., Diaz-Rainey, I., Kuruppuarachchi, D., McCarten, M., Tan, E.K., Climate transition risk in US loan portfolios: Are all banks the same?. International Review of Financial Analysis, 85, 2023, 102401.
Nordhaus, W.D., The climate casino: Risk, uncertainty, and economics for a warming world. 2013, Yale University Press.
Ociepa-Kubicka, A., Pachura, P., Eco-innovations in the functioning of companies. Environmental Research 156 (2017), 284–290.
Oestreich, A.M., Tsiakas, I., Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU emissions trading scheme. Journal of Banking & Finance, 58, 2015, 294‒308.
Pizzutilo, F., Mariani, M., Caragnano, A., Zito, M., Is it worth reducing GHG emissions? Exploring the effect on the cost of debt financing. Journal of Environmental Management, 270, 2020, 110860.
Ren, Y.S., Boubaker, S., Liu, P.Z., Weber, O., How does carbon regulatory policy affect debt financing costs? Empirical evidence from China. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 90 (2023), 77–90.
Ren, X., Cheng, C., Wang, Z., Yan, C., Spillover and dynamic effects of energy transition and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions for the European union: A dynamic spatial panel model. Sustainable Development 29:1 (2021), 228–242.
Ren, Y.S., Jiang, Y., Narayan, S., Ma, C.Q., Yang, X.G., Marketization and rural energy poverty: Evidence from provincial panel data in China. Energy Economics, 111, 2022, 106073.
Ren, S., Li, B., Research on the influence of emissions right trading on corporate labor demands and its path: A quasi-natural experiment test based on China carbon emission right trading experiment. West Forum 29 (2019), 101–113 (In Chinese).
Ren, Y.S., Liu, P.Z., Klein, T., Sheenan, L., Does the low-carbon pilot cities policy make a difference to the carbon intensity reduction?. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 217 (2024), 227–239.
Ren, S., Yang, X., Hu, Y., Chevallier, J., Emission trading, induced innovation and firm performance. Energy Economics, 112, 2022, 106157.
Sen, S., von Schickfus, M.T., Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors' expectations. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 100, 2019, 102277.
Sengupta, P., Corporate disclosure quality and the cost of debt. The Accounting Review, 1998, 459‒474.
Seto, K.C., Davis, S.J., Mitchell, R.B., Stokes, E.C., Unruh, G., Ürge‒Vorsatz, D., Carbon lock-in: Types, causes, and policy implications. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 41, 2016, 425‒452.
Shen, H., Huang, N., Will the carbon emission trading scheme improve firm value. Finance and Trade Economics 40:1 (2019), 144–161 (In Chinese).
Thompson, P., Cowton, C.J., Bringing the environment into bank lending: Implications for environmental reporting. The British Accounting Review, 36, 2004, 197∼218.
Wang, W., Li, Y., Lu, N., Wang, D., Jiang, H., Zhang, C., Does increasing carbon emissions lead to accelerated eco‒innovation? Empirical evidence from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 251, 2020, 119690.
Wang, C.A., Lin, K., Liu, X., Can the low-carbon city pilot policy promote the upgrading of high-carbon emitting enterprises? Evidence from China. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment 20:3 (2022), 217–226.
Wang, B., Song, Y.F., Impact of transition risks of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability: From the perspective of stock flow consistent models. Economic Perspectives(11), 2020, 84–99 (In Chinese).
Wang, C., Wang, L., Wang, W., Xiong, Y., Du, C., Does carbon emission trading policy promote the corporate technological innovation? Empirical evidence from China's high-carbon industries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 411, 2023, 137286.
Wang, W., Zhang, Y.J., Does China's carbon emissions trading scheme affect the market power of high-carbon enterprises?. Energy Economics, 108, 2022, 105906.
Weber, O., Scholz, R.W., Michalik, G., Incorporating sustainability criteria into credit risk management. Business Strategy and the Environment, 19(1), 2010, 39‒50.
Weitzman, M.L., On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(1), 2009, 1‒19.
Xiang, J., Li, L., Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics & Finance 80 (2022), 1025–1044.
Yan, H., Chen, B., Climate change, environment regulation and the firm value of carbon emissions disclosure. Journal of Finance Research 6 (2017), 142–158 (In Chinese).
Yang, X., Jiang, P., Pan, Y., Does China's carbon emission trading policy have an employment double dividend and a Porter effect?. Energy Policy, 142, 2020, 111492.
Yang, X.Q., Yin, X.Q., Meng, Q.X., Which to Be more diversified: Industrial-policy-supported or non-supported enterprises?. Economic Research Journal(9), 2018, 133–150 (In Chinese).
Zhang, H., Boubaker, S., Ni, X., Creditor rights and real earnings management: Evidence from quasi-natural experiments. Finance Research Letters, 53, 2023, 103629.
Zhang, Y.J., Wang, W., How does China's carbon emissions trading (CET) policy affect the investment of CET-covered enterprises?. Energy Economics, 98, 2021, 105224.
Zhou, L., Luo, K., Firm size and innovation: Evidence from China's province-level data. China Economic Quarterly-Beijing-, 4(3), 2005, 623 (In Chinese).