Reference : Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions...
Scientific journals : Article
Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences : Multidisciplinary, general & others
Computational Sciences; Systems Biomedicine
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/47508
Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks.
English
Proverbio, Daniele mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control]
Kemp, Francoise mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling]
Magni, Stefano mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Experimental Neurobiology]
Husch, Andreas mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Interventional Neuroscience]
Aalto, Atte mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control]
Mombaerts, Laurent mailto [University of Luxembourg > >]
Skupin, Alexander mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling]
Goncalves, Jorge mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control]
Ameijeiras-Alonso, Jose [> >]
Ley, Christophe [> >]
2021
PloS one
16
5
e0252019
Yes (verified by ORBilu)
1932-6203
1932-6203
United States
[en] Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.
Fonds National de la Recherche - FnR ; Fondation Cancer Luxembourg ; 111 Project on Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Control ; Flemish Science Foundation ; Spanish State Research Agency ; Xunta de Galicia
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/47508
10.1371/journal.pone.0252019
FnR ; FNR10907093 > Jorge Gonçalves > CriTICS > Critical Transitions In Complex Systems: From Theory To Applications > 01/11/2016 > 30/04/2023 > 2015

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