Article (Scientific journals)
Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
Kemp, Francoise; Proverbio, Daniele; Aalto, Atte et al.
2021In Journal of Theoretical Biology
Peer reviewed
 

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Keywords :
COVID-19; Vaccination; Herd immunity; SEIR model; Cross-country comparison; Healthcare system; Dynamical model; Bayesian Inference; Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Abstract :
[en] Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
Research center :
Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB)
Disciplines :
Life sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Kemp, Francoise ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling
Proverbio, Daniele ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
Aalto, Atte ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
Mombaerts, Laurent ;  University of Luxembourg
Fouquier d'herouël, Aymeric ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Scientific Central Services
Husch, Andreas  ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Interventional Neuroscience
Ley, Christophe;  Ghent University
Goncalves, Jorge ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control
Skupin, Alexander  ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling
Magni, Stefano ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Experimental Neurobiology
External co-authors :
yes
Language :
English
Title :
Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
Publication date :
August 2021
Journal title :
Journal of Theoretical Biology
ISSN :
0022-5193
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Focus Area :
Computational Sciences
FnR Project :
FNR10907093 - Critical Transitions In Complex Systems: From Theory To Applications, 2015 (01/11/2016-30/04/2023) - Jorge Gonçalves
Funders :
FNR - Fonds National de la Recherche [LU]
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since 14 March 2021

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