Reference : Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria...
Scientific journals : Article
Life sciences : Multidisciplinary, general & others
Computational Sciences
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/46604
Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
English
Kemp, Francoise mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling >]
Proverbio, Daniele mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control >]
Aalto, Atte mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control >]
Mombaerts, Laurent mailto [University of Luxembourg > > >]
Fouquier d'herouël, Aymeric mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Scientific Central Services >]
Husch, Andreas mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Interventional Neuroscience >]
Ley, Christophe mailto [Ghent University]
Goncalves, Jorge mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control >]
Skupin, Alexander mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling >]
Magni, Stefano mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Experimental Neurobiology >]
Aug-2021
Journal of Theoretical Biology
Yes (verified by ORBilu)
0022-5193
[en] COVID-19 ; Vaccination ; Herd immunity ; SEIR model ; Cross-country comparison ; Healthcare system ; Dynamical model ; Bayesian Inference ; Markov Chain Monte Carlo
[en] Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB)
Fonds National de la Recherche - FnR
Researchers
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/46604
also: http://hdl.handle.net/10993/48177 ; http://hdl.handle.net/10993/48629
10.1101/2020.12.31.20249088
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519321002939
FnR ; FNR10907093 > Jorge Gonçalves > CriTICS > Critical Transitions In Complex Systems: From Theory To Applications > 01/11/2016 > 30/04/2023 > 2015

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