Metacognitive confidence judgments and their link to complex problem solving

With the aim to better understand the nature of complex problem solving (CPS), we investigated the link between confidence judgments, which represent a major constituent of metacognitive self-monitoring, and CPS by regressing the two facets of CPS (i.e., knowledge acquisition and knowledge application) on confidence in CPS. To ensure that the link between confidence in CPS and CPS is distinct, we controlled for reasoning, which is the strongest known correlate of CPS. Using structural equation modeling in a sample of 471 German eventh-
grade students, we found that confidence in CPS explained 67% of the variance in CPS knowledge acquisition and 55% of the variance in CPS knowledge application. These links were reduced but remained substantial when we controlled for reasoning. The results indicate that confidence judgments as indicators of metacognitive monitoring in CPS are substantially linked to successful CPS, thus bringing us one step closer to a full understanding of CPS.