Article (Scientific journals)
The benefits of low COVID-19 incidence in Europe
Priesemann, V.; BALLING, Rudolf; Bauer, S. et al.
2021In The Lancet, 398 (10303), p. 838-839
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The original publication is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01808-0


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Keywords :
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; expert survey; Delphi study; group forecast; non-pharmaceutical interventions
Abstract :
[en] How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Research center :
- Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB): Biomedical Data Science (Glaab Group)
Disciplines :
Immunology & infectious disease
Human health sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Life sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Priesemann, V.
BALLING, Rudolf ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB)
Bauer, S.
Beutels, P.
Valdez, A. C.
Cuschieri, S.
Czypionka, T.
Dumpis, U.
GLAAB, Enrico  ;  University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Biomedical Data Science
Grill, E.
Hotulainen, P.
Iftekhar, E. N.
Krutzinna, J.
Lionis, C.
Machado, H.
Martins, C.
McKee, M.
Pavlakis, G. N.
Perc, M.
Petelos, E.
Pickersgill, M.
Prainsack, B.
Schernhammer, E.
Szczurek, E.
Tsiodras, S.
Van Gucht, S.
Willeit, P.
More authors (17 more) Less
External co-authors :
yes
Language :
English
Title :
The benefits of low COVID-19 incidence in Europe
Publication date :
2021
Journal title :
The Lancet
Volume :
398
Issue :
10303
Pages :
838-839
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Focus Area :
Systems Biomedicine
FnR Project :
FNR14715687 - Combined In Silico Molecular Docking And In Vitro Experimental Assessment Of Drug Repurposing Candidates For Covid-19, 2020 (01/06/2020-30/11/2020) - Enrico Glaab
Name of the research project :
CovScreen > Combined In Silico Molecular Docking And In Vitro Experimental Assessment Of Drug Repurposing Candidates For Covid-19 > 01/06/2020 > 30/11/2020 > 2020
Funders :
FNR - Fonds National de la Recherche [LU]
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