Reference : COVID-19 Crisis Management in Luxembourg: Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach
E-prints/Working papers : Already available on another site
Social & behavioral sciences, psychology : Human geography & demography
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/45076
COVID-19 Crisis Management in Luxembourg: Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach
English
burzynski, Michal []
Machado, Joel []
Aalto, Atte mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control >]
Beine, Michel mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance (FDEF) > Department of Economics and Management (DEM) >]
Haas, Tom []
Kemp, Francoise mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling >]
Magni, Stefano mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Experimental Neurobiology >]
Mombaerts, Laurent []
Picard, Pierre M mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance (FDEF) > Department of Economics and Management (DEM) >]
Proverbio, Daniele mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Systems Control >]
Skupin, Alexander mailto [University of Luxembourg > Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) > Integrative Cell Signalling >]
Docquier, Frédéric mailto [University of Luxembourg > > >]
2020
No
[en] We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic
responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health
policy measures implemented in Luxembourg and in the Greater Region. The model has
a weekly structure and covers the whole year 2020. With a limited number of parameters,
the model is calibrated to depict the pre-crisis evolution of the Luxembourg economy, and to
match post-lockdown leading economic indicators and industry-specific infection curves. The
nowcasting part of our analysis reveals that each week of lockdown reduces national output
by about 28% (and annual GDP by 0.54%). A first peak of the infection curve was observed
at the very beginning of April. If the lockdown measures had been permanent, annual GDP
would have decreased by 22% in 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases would have reached
zero around mid-June, and the proportion of recovered people would have reached 1.4% of
the population. In an economy heavily relying on skill-intensive services, we show that the
role of teleworking has been instrumental to limiting the weekly economic output loss (almost
by one half) and the propagation of the virus. In the forecasting part of the analysis,
we quantify the epidemiological and economic responses to gradual deconfinement measures
under various public health scenarios. If the post-lockdown transmission rates could be kept
constant throughout the deconfinement period, restarting all sectors would have huge effects
on the economy (limiting the annual GDP loss to about 7%) and no effect on the aggregate
infection curve. While it is a good time for lifting containment measures, there is also a
risk that increasing the density of employees at the workplace and resuming social activities
would induce a rebound in the infection curve. Preventing such a relapse is possible with
PCR testing of both national and cross-border workers, and with accompanying measures
such as (i) maintaining teleworking practices, (ii) reopening hotels, restaurants and cafes at
half of their full capacity or with equivalent physical distancing measures and last but not
least, (iii) sustaining distancing measures in social activities. Overall, in our worst-case scenario,
combining bi-monthly testing with contact tracing and quarantining measures appear
to be a suficient (perhaps not necessary) policy option in the aftermath of the deconfinement
plan.
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/45076
https://www.liser.lu/publi_viewer.cfm?tmp=4470

There is no file associated with this reference.

Bookmark and Share SFX Query

All documents in ORBilu are protected by a user license.