Reference : Detecting the ‘Black Hole’ of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: Age-period...
Parts of books : Contribution to collective works
Social & behavioral sciences, psychology : Sociology & social sciences
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/40983
Detecting the ‘Black Hole’ of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: Age-period-cohort residual analysis
English
Chauvel, Louis mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Language and Literature, Humanities, Arts and Education (FLSHASE) > Integrative Research Unit: Social and Individual Development (INSIDE) >]
Leist, Anja mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Language and Literature, Humanities, Arts and Education (FLSHASE) > Integrative Research Unit: Social and Individual Development (INSIDE) >]
Smith, Herbert L. []
In press
Age, Period, and Cohort Effects
Bell, Andrew
Taylor & Francis
Yes
[en] visualization ; age-period-cohort ; public health ; mortality ; Lexis ; HIV/AIDS
[en] In a time of worldwide availability of annual age-specific mortality data, we lack basic tools for detecting and graphing, from a comparative perspective, fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide a new age-period-cohort-based methodology, combining information from age-period (AP) and APC-Detrended (APCD) analyses to detect all-cause mortality increases. Plotting the resulting AP coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can easily be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. We highlight abnormalities as interactions of age and period (‘Black Holes’). We then investigate the ‘Black Holes’ of mortality of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries, and the U.S., in emphasizing their simultaneously occurring mortality crises. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data and epidemiological evidence from other studies show that these mortality increases likely result from lack of treatment and inadequate public health responses to the beginnings of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. We discuss other possible applications of the new method.
Integrative Research Unit: Social and Individual Development (INSIDE) > PEARL Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Inequality (IRSEI)
Fonds National de la Recherche - FnR
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/40983

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