Reference : Adaptation of Finite Element Models for Probabilistic Design

	Document type :	Scientific congresses, symposiums and conference proceedings : Paper published in a book
	Discipline(s) :	Engineering, computing & technology : Civil engineering
	To cite this reference:	http://hdl.handle.net/10993/18416

Title :	Adaptation of Finite Element Models for Probabilistic Design
Language :	English
Author, co-author :	Van Baars, Stefan [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Science, Technology and Communication (FSTC) > Engineering Research Unit >]
Publication date :	Sep-2008
Main document title :	11th Baltic Sea Geotechnical Conference on Geotechnics in Maritime Engineering
Peer reviewed :	Yes
Audience :	International
Event name :	11th Baltic Sea Geotechnical Conference on Geotechnics in Maritime Engineering
Event date :	september 2008
Event place (city) :	Gdansk
Abstract :	[en] Both a circular slip surface stability calculation (Bishop or Fellenius) and a Finite Element Method calculation (c-phi reduction) produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. A Monte-Carlo method leads, because of the many slip surface calculations, to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, but this method is far too time consuming for daily FEM calculations. The idea is therefore to replace the Monte-Carlo approach by a First Order Reliability Method (FORM), based on a limited number of FEM calculations. A possible problem with this FORM is, that variable soil parameters create a correlated and therefore variable failure mechanism. However, FORM gives an indication of this non-linear behaviour and in most cases an accurate probability of failure of the structure can be calculated. This article gives a complete example of the calculation of the probability of failure of a dyke ring along a river, based on a limited number of Phi-C reduction calculations with Plaxis. The input data for this calculation is based on a limited number of given soil test data.
Permalink :	http://hdl.handle.net/10993/18416

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