United in Victory, Divided in Defeat? Football Performance, Team Diversity, and Immigration Attitudes in Europe

We study how shared experiences that make immigration salient impact public attitudes toward immigration. Combining 11 waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2023) with data on European national football team performance in major international competitions and team diversity, we exploit quasi-random variation in match timing relative to survey interviews to identify shifts in immigration attitudes. We develop two measures of diversity: a surname-based ancestry index and a racial classification based on visible markers using machine learning tools. We find that following defeats, respondents in countries with a more diverse national team perceive immigrants to have a worse impact on their country. Victories, in contrast, lead to higher desired levels of immigration. These effects are strongest following unexpected or close defeats and victories. In addition, defeats tend to boost support for far-right parties when team diversity is high. Our results are robust to alternative specifications in the case of defeats, suggesting a scapegoating mechanism that is translated from (perceived) out-group players onto the out-group as a whole. Our findings showcase that shared experiences such as international sporting competitions that make diversity salient generate strong emotional responses that may translate into temporary important attitude and preference shifts towards diversity.