Surviving the storm: how climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic
consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’
income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’
intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climate related disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from
2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme
temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on
tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through
two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate
inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through
loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can
also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by
destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government
responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be
responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme
temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it.
Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more
profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission
channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster
governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa