From Fields to Frontiers: Cash Crop Price Shocks and Migration Intentions in Sub-Saharan Africa

How do cash crop price shocks shape migration intentions in rural, agriculturally intensive regions of sub-Saharan Africa? Focusing on communities heavily reliant on cash crop income, we examine migration intentions following negative cash crop price shocks. Using a difference-in-differences approach with continuous treatment, we analyze data from 278,898 rural individuals across 432 regions in 41 sub-Saharan African countries. The results indicate that a negative cash crop price shock increases the likelihood of international migration intentions, an effect that is particularly pronounced in regions with higher cropland intensity. These findings are confirmed by several additional analyses and contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between agricultural livelihood instability and migration intentions in sub-Saharan Africa.