Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system

Dropout; Educational economics; Longitudinal modelling; School choice; Student academic careers; Time to degree; Geography, Planning and Development; Economics and Econometrics; Strategy and Management; Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty; Management Science and Operations Research

Abstract :

[en] Despite the absence of formal entry barriers, Italy is lagging behind the majority of the developed countries in the share of young individuals with tertiary education. Exploiting the administrative data of a large public Italian institution, we analyze student academic careers across recent matriculation cohorts. We propose a flexible discrete-time competing risks estimation that allows overcoming some major limitations of conventional competing risks models. We find that student pathways vary tremendously across prior schooling profiles: for example, the within 4-year dropout probability ranges between 10% and 77%. We observe improvements over time in retention and time-to-degree, and by decomposing changes into components related to the composition of the enrolled population, the choice of the field of study and ‘individual behavior’ after enrolment, we find that the latter plays a major role. However, the improvement is limited in size and does not interest students from the vocational track. Since this progress is not accompanied by an increase in the share of students making the transition from high school to university, altogether our results call for great concern over the inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian university system.

Disciplines :

Sociology & social sciences

Author, co-author :

Contini, Dalit; University of Torino, Italy

SALZA, Guido ; University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Humanities, Education and Social Sciences (FHSE) > Department of Social Sciences (DSOC) > Centre for Childhood and Youth Research ; University of Torino, Italy

External co-authors :

yes

Language :

English

Title :

Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system

Publication date :

September 2020

Journal title :

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences

ISSN :

0038-0121

eISSN :

1873-6041

Publisher :

Elsevier Ltd

Volume :

Pages :

100803

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S003801211930240X?httpAccept=text/xml

Funders :

Università degli Studi di Torino

Funding text :

This work was supported by the University of Torino , Progetto di Ateneo EqualEducToEmploy “Inequalities in higher education careers and labor market outcomes. Study completion, labor market entry and job skill mismatch using multiple data sources in a longitudinal perspective".

Available on ORBilu :

since 05 June 2024

Statistics

Number of views

47 (1 by Unilu)

Number of downloads

0 (0 by Unilu)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

OpenAlex citations

WoS citations^™

Bibliography

Blundell, R., Dearden, L., Meghir, C., Sianesi, B., Human capital investment: the returns from education and training to the individual, the firm and the economy. Fisc Stud 20:1 (1999), 1–23.
OECD. Enhancing Higher Education System Performance. Report on benchmarking higher education system performance: conceptual framework and data., 2017, OECD Publishing.
Barro, R.J., Human capital and growth. Am Econ Rev 91:2 (2001), 12–17.
Hanushek, E.A., Woessmann, L., The role of cognitive skills in economic development. J Econ Lit 46:3 (2008), 607–668.
Breen, R., Golthorpe, J., Explaining educational differentials: towards a formal rational action theory. Ration Soc 9 (1997), 275–305.
OECD. Education at a glance 2018: OECD indicators. 2018, OECD Publishing.
De Santis, G., Pirani, E., Porcu, M., Rapporto sulla Popolazione. L'istruzione in Italia, Il Mulino, Bologna. 2019.
Schnepf, S.V., Do tertiary dropout students really not succeed in European labor markets?. 2014, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn IZA Discussion Paper 8015.
ANVUR. Rapporto biennale sullo stato del sistema universitario e della ricerca 2016. 2016, Agenzia Nazionale di Valutazione del Sistema Universitario e della Ricerca, Roma.
Almalaurea, XVII indagine Profilo dei Laureati 2015. 2016, Consorzio AlmaLaurea, Bologna.
Jackson, M., Determined to succeed? Performance, choice and education. 2013, Stanford University Press.
Scott, M.A., Kennedy, B.B., Pitfalls in pathways: some perspectives on competing risks event history analysis in education research. J Educ Behav Stat 30:4 (2005), 413–442.
Desjardins, S., Ahlburg, D.A., McCall, B.P., A temporal investigation of factors related to timely degree completion. J High Educ, 73(5), 2002.
Agasisti, T., Market forces and competition in university systems: theoretical reflections and empirical evidence from Italy. Int Rev Appl Econ 23 (2009), 463–483.
Cattaneo, M., Malighetti, P., Meoli, M., Paleari, S., University spatial competition for students: the Italian case. Reg Stud, 2016.
OECD. Education at a glance 2013: OECD indicators. 2013, OECD Publishing.
Boudon, R., Education, opportunity, and social inequality: changing Prospects in Western society. 1974, John Wiley & Sons.
Bourdieu, P., Passeron, J.C., Reproduction in education, society, and culture, vol. 4, 1990, Sage.
Barone, C., Triventi, M., Assarelli, G., Explaining social inequalities in access to university: a test of rational choice mechanisms in Italy. Eur Socio Rev 34:5 (2018), 554–569.
Carneiro, P., Heckman, J., The evidence on credit constraints in postsecondary schooling. Econ J 112 (2002), 705–734.
Dynarski, S., Does aid matter? Measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion. Am Econ Rev 93:1 (2003), 279–288.
Checchi, D., Fiorio, C.V., Leonardi, M., Parent's risk aversion and children's educational attainment. Labor Econ, 2014.
Tinto, V., Dropout from higher education: a theoretical synthesis of recent research. Rev Educ Res 45:1 (1975), 89–125.
Smith, J.P., Naylor, R.A., Dropping out of university: a statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students. J Roy Stat Soc 164:2 (2001), 389–405.
Arulampalam, W., Naylor, R.A., Smith, J.P., Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students. Econ Educ Rev 24 (2005), 251–262.
Ishitani, Studying attrition and degree completion behavior among first-generation college students in the United States. J High Educ 77:5 (2006), 861–885.
Vignoles, A.F., Powdthavee, N., The socioeconomic gap in university dropouts. Topics B E J Econ Anal Pol, 9(1), 2009 Article 19.
Cingano, F., Cipollone, P., University drop-out: the case of Italy. Temi di discussione Servizio Studi della Banca d'Italia, 2007, 626.
Bowen, W., Chingos, M., McPherson, M., Crossing the finish line: completing college at America's public universities. 2009, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Manski, C.F., Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the postsecondary dropout phenomenon. Econ Educ Rev 8:4 (1989), 305–312.
Stinebrickner, R., Stinebrickner, T., Academic performance and college dropout: using longitudinal expectations data to estimate a learning model. 2013 NBER Working Paper 1894.
Stinebrickner, R., Stinebrickner, T., The effect of credit constraints on the college drop-out decision: a direct approach using a new panel study. Am Econ Rev 98:5 (2008), 2163–2184.
Gloker, D., The effect of student aid on the duration of study. Econ Educ Rev 30 (2011), 177–190.
Declercq, K., Verboven, F., Enrollment and degree completion in higher education without admission standards. Econ Educ Rev 66 (2018), 223–244.
Denning, J.T., Eide, E.R., Warnick, M., Why have college completion rates increased? EdWorkingPaper. 2019, Annenberg Institute at Brown University, 19–77.
Cobalti, A., Schizzerotto, A., Inequality of educational opportunity in Italy. Shavit, Y., Blossfeld, H.P., (eds.) Persistent inequality. Changing educational attainment in thirteen countries, 1993, Westview Press, Boulder, 155–176.
Contini, D., Scagni, A., Social origin inequalities in educational careers in Italy. Performance or decision effects?. Jackson, Michelle, (eds.) Determined to fail? Performance, choice and education, 2013, Stanford University Press.
Gambetta, D., Were they pushed or did they jump? Individual decision mechanisms in education. 1987, Cambridge University Press.
Schizzerotto, A., Barone, C., Sociologia dell'istruzione. 2006, Il Mulino, Bologna.
Panichella, N., Triventi, M., Social inequalities in the choice of secondary school: long-term trends during educational expansion and reforms in Italy. Eur Soc 16:5 (2014), 666–693.
Argentin, G., Triventi, M., Social inequality in higher education and labor market in a period of institutional reforms: Italy, 1992-2007. High Educ 61 (2011), 309–323.
Guetto, R., Vergolini, L., Educational expansion without equalization: a reappraisal of the ‘Effectively Maintained Inequality’ hypothesis in children's choice of the upper secondary track. Eur Soc, 19, 2017, 1.
Di Pietro, G., Cutillo, A., Degree flexibility and university dropout: the Italian experience. Econ Educ Rev 27 (2008), 546–555.
Cappellari, L., Lucifora, C., The “Bologna Process” and college enrolment decisions. Labor Econ 16 (2009), 638–647.
Clerici, R., Giraldo, A., Meggiolaro, S., The determinants of academic outcomes in a competing risks approach: evidence from Italy. Stud High Educ, 2014.
Carrieri, V., D'Amato, M., Zotti, R., On the causal effects of selective admission policies on students' performances: evidence from a quasi-experiment in a large Italian university. 2015, Oxford Economic Papers.
Mealli, F., Rampichini, C., Evaluating the effects of university grants by using regression discontinuity designs. J Roy Stat Soc 175:3 (2012), 775–798.
Azzolini, D., Martini, A., Rettore, E., Romano, B., Schizzerotto, A., Vergolini, L., Testing a social innovation in financial aid for low-income students: experimental evidence for Italy. IZA Discussion Paper No 11625, 2018.
Vergolini, L., Zanini, N., Away, but not too far from home. The effects of financial aid on university enrolment decisions. Econ Educ Rev 49 (2015), 91–109.
Aina, C., Baici, E., Casalone, G., Time to degree: students' abilities, university characteristics or something else? Evidence from Italy. Educ Econ 19:3 (2011), 311–325.
Contini, D., Cugnata, F., Scagni, A., Social selection in higher education. Enrolment, dropout and timely degree attainment in Italy. High Educ 75 (2018), 785–808.
Desjardins, S., Ahlburgb, D.A., McCallc, B.P., The effects of interrupted enrolment on graduation from college: racial, income, and ability differences. Econ Educ Rev 25 (2006), 575–590.
Aina, C., Parental background and university dropout in Italy. High Educ 65:4 (2013), 437–456.
Lassibille, G., Navarro Gomez, L., Why do higher education students drop out? Evidence from Spain. Educ Econ 16 (2008), 89–105.
Ortiz, E.A., Dehon, C., Roads to success in the Belgian French community's higher education system: predictors of dropout Bruxelles. Res High Educ 54 (2013), 693–723.
Enea, M., From South to North? Mobility of Southern Italian students at the transition from the first to the second level university degree. Perna, C., Pratesi, M., Ruiz-Gazen, A., (eds.) Studies in theoretical and applied statistics, 2018, Springer.
Cameron, S., Heckman, J., The dynamics of educational attainment for black, Hispanic, and white males. J Polit Econ 109 (2001), 455–499.
Jenkins, S.P., Survival analysis. https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/files/teaching/stephenj/ec968/pdfs/ec968lnotesv6.pdf, 2005.
Collett, D., Modelling survival data in medical research. third ed., 2015, Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Ambrogi, F., Biganzoli, F., Boracchia, P., Estimating crude cumulative incidences through multinomial logit regression on discrete cause-specific hazards. Comput Stat Data Anal 53 (2009), 2767–2779.
Romito, M., Pilutti, S., Contini, D., Why do students leave university? Qualitative research at an Italian higher education institution. Eur J Educ, 2020 [forthcoming].
European Commission/EACEA/Eurydice. The European higher education area in 2018: Bologna process implementation report., 2018, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
ANVUR. Rapporto biennale sullo stato del sistema universitario e della ricerca 2018. 2018, Agenzia Nazionale di Valutazione del Sistema Universitario e della Ricerca, Roma.
Delen, D., A comparative analysis of machine learning techniques for student retention management. Decis Support Syst 49 (2010), 498–506.
Berens, J., Schneider, K., Görtz, S., Oster, S., Burghoff, J., Early detection of students at risk. Predicting student dropouts using administrative student data and machine learning methods. CESIFO WP, 7259, 2018.
Cox, D.R., Oakes, D., Analysis of survival data. 1990, Chapman and Hall, Cambridge, UK.
Austin, P.C., Fine, J.P., Practical recommendations for reporting Fine-Gray model analyses for competing risk data. Stat Med 36 (2017), 4291–4400.
Allison, P., For causal analysis of competing risks, don't use fine & gray's subdistribution method. https://statisticalhorizons.com/for-causal-analysis-of-competing-risks, 2018.
Fairlie, The absence of the African-American owned business: an analysis of the dynamics of self-employment. J Labor Econ 17–1 (1999), 80–108.
Enea, M., Attanasio, M., An association model for bivariate data with application to the analysis of university students' success. J Appl Stat 43:1 (2016), 46–57.
Bound, J., Lovenheim, M., Turner, S., Why have college completion rates declined? An analysis of changing student preparation and collegiate resources. Am Econ J Appl Econ 2:3 (2010), 129–157.
Collins, Randall, Functional and conflict theories of educational stratification. Am Socio Rev, 36(6), 1971, 1002.
Garibaldi, P.F., Giavazzi, Ichino, A., Rettore, E., College cost and time to complete a degree: evidence from tuition discontinuities. Rev Econ Stat 94:3 (2012), 699–711.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.., 2019 Italy: Selected Issues, Country Report No. 19/41.
Larsen, M.R., Sommersel, H.B., Larsen, M.S., Evidence on dropout phenomena at universities. 2013, Danish Clearinghouse for Educational Research.
Belloc, F., Maruotti, A., Petrella, L., et al. How individual characteristics affect university students drop-out: a semiparametric mixed-effects model for an Italian case study. Journal of Applied Statistics 38:10 (2011), 2225–2239.
Ghignoni, E., Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: the case of Italy. Higher Education 73:1 (2017), 127–151.
Chies, L., Graziosi, G., Pauli, F., et al. Job opportunities and academic dropout: The case of the University of Trieste. Procedia Economics and Finance 17:13 (2014), 63–70.