Article (Scientific journals)
Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk
PENASSE, Julien; Marfé, Robert
2024In Journal of Financial Economics, 156 (103838)
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Keywords :
Rare disasters, equity premium, return predictability
Abstract :
[en] This paper estimates consumption and GDP tail risk dynamics over the long run (1876– 020). Our predictive approach circumvents the scarcity of large macroeconomic crises by exploiting a rich information set covering 42 countries. This flexible approach does not require asset price information and can thus serve as a benchmark to evaluate the empirical validity of rare disasters models. Our estimates covary with asset prices and forecast future stock returns, in line with theory. A calibration disciplined by our estimates supports the prediction that macroeconomic tail risk drives the equity premium.
Disciplines :
Macroeconomics & monetary economics
Author, co-author :
PENASSE, Julien  ;  University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance (FDEF) > Department of Finance (DF)
Marfé, Robert;  Collegio Carlo Alberto
External co-authors :
yes
Language :
English
Title :
Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk
Publication date :
June 2024
Journal title :
Journal of Financial Economics
ISSN :
0304-405X
Publisher :
Elsevier, Netherlands
Volume :
156
Issue :
103838
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBilu :
since 13 December 2023

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