Bayesian analysis; Posterior distribution; Prior distribution; Stein's method; Statistics and Probability; Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Résumé :
[en] In this paper, we propose tight upper and lower bounds for the Wasserstein distance between any two univariate continuous distributions with probability densities p1 and p2 having nested supports. These explicit bounds are expressed in terms of the derivative of the likelihood ratio p1/p2 as well as the Stein kernel τ1 of p1. The method of proof relies on a new variant of Stein's method which manipulates Stein operators. We give several applications of these bounds. Our main application is in Bayesian statistics: we derive explicit data-driven bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the posterior distribution based on a given prior and the no-prior posterior based uniquely on the sampling distribution. This is the first finite sample result confirming the well-known fact that with well-identified parameters and large sample sizes, reasonable choices of prior distributions will have only minor effects on posterior inferences if the data are benign.
Disciplines :
Mathématiques
Auteur, co-auteur :
LEY, Christophe ; University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Science, Technology and Medicine (FSTM) > Department of Mathematics (DMATH) ; Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Reinert, Gesine; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Swan, Yvik; Département de Mathématique, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium
Co-auteurs externes :
yes
Langue du document :
Anglais
Titre :
Distances between nested densities and a measure of the impact of the prior in Bayesian statistics
Supported by EPSRC Grant EP/K032402/I and by the Keble College Advanced Studies Centre. Supported by the IAP Research Network P7/06 of the Belgian State (Belgian Science Policy). The authors thank the three referees for their very careful reading of the paper and the many pertinent remarks and corrections they suggested. Christophe Ley and Yvik Swan also wish to thank Keble College for logistic support during an important writing stage of this paper.
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