Financial fragility; Employment; Panel data models
Résumé :
[en] Financial fragility increases economic uncertainty and restricts credit to firms, leading to lower economic growth and employment. Despite voluminous research on the relation between financial fragility and growth, the effect of financial fragility on employment is understudied. Using a global panel for the period 1998–2017, we identify a negative effect of financial fragility on employment, even after accounting for unobserved country heterogeneity. The impact of financial fragility is stronger in the post-crisis period and in more rigid labor markets, and the magnitude of the effect is higher in developing/emerging economies than in developed countries. Nevertheless, this negative effect can be mitigated in countries with a higher level of financial market development. Our results are robust to the use of several robustness tests, including different measures of financial fragility and an instrumental variables approach.
Disciplines :
Domaines particuliers de l’économie (santé, travail, transport...) Finance Méthodes quantitatives en économie & gestion Macroéconomie & économie monétaire
Auteur, co-auteur :
Chletsos, Michael ✱; University of Piraeus > Department of Economics
SINTOS, Andreas ✱; University of Ioannina > Department of Economics
✱ Ces auteurs ont contribué de façon équivalente à la publication.
Co-auteurs externes :
no
Langue du document :
Anglais
Titre :
The effect of financial fragility on employment
Date de publication/diffusion :
janvier 2021
Titre du périodique :
Economic Modelling
ISSN :
0264-9993
eISSN :
1873-6122
Maison d'édition :
Elsevier, Amsterdam, Pays-Bas
Titre particulier du numéro :
Aspects of Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance
Abrams, B.A., The effect of government size on the unemployment rate. Publ. Choice 99:3–4 (1999), 395–401, 10.1023/A:1018349411246.
Ahamed, M.M., Mallick, S.K., Is financial inclusion good for bank stability? International evidence. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 157 (2019), 403–427, 10.1016/j.jebo.2017.07.027.
Allen, F., Gale, D., Competition and financial stability. J. Money Credit Bank., 2004, 453–480, 10.1353/mcb.2004.0038.
Allen, F., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Martinez Peria, M.S., The foundations of financial inclusion: understanding ownership and use of formal accounts. J. Financ. Intermediation 27 (2016), 1–30, 10.1016/j.jfi.2015.12.003.
Andrianova, S., Baltagi, B., Beck, T., Demetriades, P., Fielding, D., Hall, S.G., Koch, S., Lensink, R., Rewilak, Johan, Rousseau, P., A New International Database on Financial Fragility. Working Paper 15/18, 2015, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, University of Leicester Available at: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp15–18.pdf.
Anginer, D., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Zhu, M., How does competition affect bank systemic risk?. J. Financ. Intermediation 23:1 (2014), 1–26, 10.1016/j.jfi.2013.11.001.
Batuo, M., Mlambo, K., Asongu, S., Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa. Res. Int. Bus. Finance 45 (2018), 168–179, 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.148.
Bonfiglioli, A., Mendicino, C., Financial Liberalization, Bank Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links. Bank Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links. 2004, 10.2139/ssrn.1002285 October 2004.
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Laeven, L., Levine, R., Finance, firm size, and growth. J. Money Credit Bank. 40:7 (2008), 1379–1405, 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00164.x.
Beck, T., The role of finance in economic development – benefits, risks, and politics. Müller, Dennis, (eds.) Oxford Handbook of Capitalism, 2012, Oxford University Press, 161–203, 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195391176.013.0007.
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., Financial fragility and economic performance. Q. J. Econ. 105:1 (1990), 87–114, 10.2307/2937820.
Bertola, G., Labour Markets in EMU - what Has Changed and what Needs to Change. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7049, Available at: SSRN:, 2008 https://ssrn.com/abstract=1311173.
Bezemer, D., Grydaki, M., Financial fragility in the great moderation. J. Bank. Finance 49 (2014), 169–177, 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.005.
Boeri, T., Garibaldi, P., Moen, E.R., Financial shocks and labor: facts and theories. IMF Econ. Rev. 61:4 (2013), 631–663, 10.1057/imfer.2013.20.
Boustanifar, H., Finance and employment: evidence from US banking reforms. J. Bank. Finance 46 (2014), 343–354, 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.06.006.
Boyd, J.H., De Nicolo, G., The theory of bank risk taking and competition revisited. J. Finance 60:3 (2005), 1329–1343, 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.x.
Bumann, S., Hermes, N., Lensink, R., Financial liberalization and economic growth: a meta-analysis. J. Int. Money Finance 33 (2013), 255–281, 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.11.013.
Cazes, S., Verick, S., What Role for Labour Market Policies and Institutions in Development? Enhancing Security in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. Employment Working Paper No 67, 2010, ILO, Geneva.
Chodorow-Reich, G., The employment effects of credit market disruptions: firm-level evidence from the 2008–9 financial crisis. Q. J. Econ. 129:1 (2014), 1–59, 10.1093/qje/qjt031.
Clerides, S., Delis, M.D., Kokas, S., A new data set on competition in national banking markets. Financ. Mark. Inst. Instrum. 24:2–3 (2015), 267–311, 10.1111/fmii.12030.
Davis, S.J., Haltiwanger, J., Gross job creation, gross job destruction, and employment reallocation. Q. J. Econ. 107:3 (1992), 819–863, 10.2307/2118365.
Davis, S.J., Haltiwanger, J., On the driving forces behind cyclical movements in employment and job reallocation. Am. Econ. Rev. 89:5 (1999), 1234–1258, 10.1257/aer.89.5.1234.
De Graeve, F., Kick, T., Koetter, M., Monetary policy and financial (in) stability: an integrated micro–macro approach. J. Financ. Stabil. 4:3 (2008), 205–231, 10.1016/j.jfs.2007.09.003.
Deidda, L., Fattouh, B., Non-linearity between finance and growth. Econ. Lett. 74:3 (2002), 339–345, 10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00571-7.
Delis, M., Iosifidi, M., Tsionas, E.G., On the estimation of marginal cost. Oper. Res. 62:3 (2014), 543–556, 10.1287/opre.2014.1264.
Demetriades, P.O., Rousseau, P.L., Rewilak, J., Finance, Growth and Fragility. Discussion Papers in Economics 17/13, 2017, Department of Economics, University of Leicester Available at: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp17-13.pdf.
Diamond, D.W., Rajan, R.G., Liquidity risk, liquidity creation, and financial fragility: a theory of banking. J. Polit. Econ. 109:2 (2001), 287–327, 10.1086/319552.
Dimitras, A.I., Kyriakou, M.I., Iatridis, G., Financial crisis, GDP variation and earnings management in Europe. Res. Int. Bus. Finance 34 (2015), 338–354, 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.02.017.
Dutt, P., Mitra, D., Ranjan, P., International trade and unemployment: theory and cross-national evidence. J. Int. Econ. 78:1 (2009), 32–44, 10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.02.005.
Farmer, R.E., Implicit contracts with asymmetric information and bankruptcy: the effect of interest rates on layoffs. Rev. Econ. Stud. 52:3 (1985), 427–442, 10.2307/2297662.
Fostel, A., Geanakoplos, J., Leverage cycles and the anxious economy. Am. Econ. Rev. 98:4 (2008), 1211–1244, 10.1257/aer.98.4.1211.
Fu, X., Balasubramanyam, V.N., Exports, foreign direct investment and employment: the case of China. World Econ. 28:4 (2005), 607–625, 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00694.x.
Granville, B., Mallick, S., Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: pro-cyclicality versus trade-off. J. Int. Financ. Mark. Inst. Money 19:4 (2009), 662–674, 10.1016/j.intfin.2008.11.002.
Greenaway, D., Hine, R.C., Wright, P., An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom. Eur. J. Polit. Econ. 15:3 (1999), 485–500, 10.1016/S0176-2680(99)00023-3.
Gwartney, J.D., Lawson, R.A., Hall, J., Murphy, R., Economic Freedom Dataset, Published in Economic Freedom of the World: 2019 Annual Report., 2019, Fraser Institute Available at: www.fraserinstitute.org/economic-freedom/dataset.
Haltenhof, S., Lee, S.J., Stebunovs, V., The credit crunch and fall in employment during the great recession. J. Econ. Dynam. Contr. 43 (2014), 31–57, 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.03.013.
Jiménez, G., Lopez, J.A., Saurina, J., How does competition affect bank risk-taking?. J. Financ. Stabil. 9:2 (2013), 185–195, 10.1016/j.jfs.2013.02.004.
Karras, G., Employment and output effects of government spending: is government size important?. Econ. Inq. 31:3 (1993), 354–369, 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1993.tb01298.x.
Keeley, M.C., Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking. Am. Econ. Rev., 1990, 1183–1200.
Koopman, G.J., Székely, I.P., Impact of the current economic and financial crisis on potential output. Eur. Econ.(49), 2009 Occasional Paper.
Lall, S., Employment and foreign investment: policy options for developing countries. Int. Lab. Rev. 134:4–5 (1995), 521–540.
Levine, R., More on finance and growth: more finance, more growth?. Rev.-Federal Res. Bank Saint Louis 85:4 (2003), 31–46 Available at: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/03/07/Levine.pdf.
Levine, R., Chapter 12 finance and growth: theory and evidence. Handb. Econ. Growth, 2005, 865–934, 10.1016/s1574-0684(05)01012-9.
Levinsohn, J., Employment responses to international liberalization in Chile. J. Int. Econ. 47:2 (1999), 321–344, 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00026-9.
Loayza, N., Rancière, R., Financial development, financial fragility, and growth. J. Money Credit Bank. 38:4 (2006), 1051–1076, 10.1353/mcb.2006.0060.
Mallick, S.K., Sousa, R.M., The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 30 (2013), 1–17, 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.05.003.
Mallick, S., Matousek, R., Tzeremes, N.G., Financial development and productive inefficiency: a robust conditional directional distance function approach. Econ. Lett. 145 (2016), 196–201, 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.019.
Marques, A.M., Lima, G.T., Troster, V., Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the great recession. Econ. Modell. 64 (2017), 105–116, 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.014.
Martin, P., Rey, H., Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: with or without Crash? (No. W9288). 2002, National Bureau of Economic Research, 10.3386/w9288.
McMillan, M.S., Rodrik, D., Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth (No. W17143). 2011, National Bureau of Economic Research, 10.3386/w17143.
Mian, A., Sufi, A., What explains the 2007–2009 drop in employment?. Econometrica 82:6 (2014), 2197–2223, 10.3982/ECTA10451.
Moghadam, R., New Growth Drivers for Low-Income Countries: the Role of BRICs. IMF, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, vol. 207, 2011 Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/011211.pdf.
Pagano, M., Pica, G., Finance and employment. Econ. Pol. 27:69 (2012), 5–55, 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00276.x.
Rioja, F., Valev, N., Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development. Econ. Inq. 42:1 (2004), 127–140, 10.1093/ei/cbh049.
Rodrik, D., Velasco, A., Short-term Capital Flows (No. W7364). 1999, National Bureau of Economic Research, 10.3386/w7364.
Rodrik, D., The Past, Present and Future of Economic Growth. Working Paper 1, Global Citizen Foundation, 2013 Available at: https://www.sss.ias.edu/files/pdfs/Rodrik/Research/GCF_Rodrik-working-paper-1_-6-24-13.pdf.
Schaeck, K., Cihak, M., Wolfe, S., Are competitive banking systems more stable?. J. Money Credit Bank. 41:4 (2009), 711–734, 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00228.x.
Svirydzenka, K., IMF Working Paper: Introducing a New Broad-Based Index of Financial Development. 2016, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, USA, 10.5089/9781513583709.001.
Tymoigne, E., Financial fragility. Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, 2012, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 10.4337/9781849805957.00020.
Wasmer, E., Weil, P., The macroeconomics of labor and credit market imperfections. Am. Econ. Rev. 94:4 (2004), 944–963, 10.1257/0002828042002525.
Winters, L.A., McCulloch, N., McKay, A., Trade liberalization and poverty: the evidence so far. J. Econ. Lit. 42:1 (2004), 72–115, 10.1257/002205104773558056.
Wooldridge, J.M., Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data. 2010, MIT press.
Yuan, M., Li, W., Dynamic employment and hours effects of government spending shocks. J. Econ. Dynam. Contr. 24:8 (2000), 1233–1263, 10.1016/S0165-1889(99)00007-X.