Workers’ Movement out of Declining Occupations in Great Britain, Germany and Switzerland

The employment structure undergoes constant change. Certain occupations grow while others decline under the pressure of technological advances, internationalization and welfare state reforms. This evolution at the aggregate level has been well documented. Our knowledge of how macro-level change in the employment structure is brought about through micro-level career adjustments is less extensive. Drawing on panel data, this paper examines the types of workers most likely to leave occupations that have declined over the past 20 years, and the most likely destination of these exits in Great Britain, Germany and Switzerland. Overall, we find that women are more likely than men to leave a declining occupation, and the most likely route out of declining occupations for female workers is towards low paid growing occupations. Clerical workers are more likely to exit to high paid growing occupations than production workers, and male production workers are at higher risk than female clerks of exiting into unemployment.