Reference : Testing informed SIR based epidemiological model for COVID-19 in Luxembourg
E-prints/Working papers : Already available on another site
Human health sciences : Multidisciplinary, general & others
Systems Biomedicine
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/43970
Testing informed SIR based epidemiological model for COVID-19 in Luxembourg
English
Sauter, Thomas mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Science, Technology and Communication (FSTC) > Life Science Research Unit]
Pires Pacheco, Maria Irene mailto [University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Science, Technology and Communication (FSTC) > Life Science Research Unit]
25-Jul-2020
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
No
[en] The interpretation of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in a country or region is strongly dependent on the number of performed tests. We developed a novel SIR based epidemiological model (SIVRT) which allows the country-specific integration of testing information and other available data. The model thereby enables a dynamic inspection of the pandemic and allows estimating key figures, like the number of overall detected and undetected COVID-19 cases and the infection fatality rate. As proof of concept, the novel SIVRT model was used to simulate the first phase of the pandemic in Luxembourg. An overall number of infections of 13.000 and an infection fatality rate of 1,3 was estimated, which is in concordance with data from population-wide testing. Furthermore based on the data as of end of May 2020 and assuming a partial deconfinement, an increase of cases is predicted from mid of July 2020 on. This is consistent with the current observed rise and shows the predictive potential of the novel SIVRT model.
http://hdl.handle.net/10993/43970
10.1101/2020.07.21.20159046
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/07/25/2020.07.21.20159046
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159046v1

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