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Population aging, demographic trends and consequences for long-term care
Leist, Anja
2018In Boll, Thomas; Ferring, Dieter; Valsiner, Jaan (Eds.) Cultures of care in aging
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Keywords :
population aging; health expectancy projections; disability projections; dementia projections; need for assistance with care; care gap; long-term care expenditures projections; old-age dependency ratio; support ratio
Abstract :
[en] This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing on the developments in Europe but mentioning worldwide trends where possible. First, I present demographic trends in changing age structure of populations, expected costs of those changes, and discuss how innovative measures such as the ‘real elderly dependency ratio’ could offer a more balanced view on those trends. Second, projections of healthy life expectancy and time spent with morbidity and disability are presented. Then possible limitations of those projections are discussed, especially regarding recent evidence on changing incidence of dementia, and the possible further reductions in incidence if unfavorable lifestyle and health behaviours were reduced. After that, I will delineate demographic trends in need for assistance with care, and their implications for both formal and informal long-term care provision and costs. Specifically, a ‘care gap’ both in the provision of formal and informal care has been foreseen for several countries. Lastly, I discuss some trends and phenomena in long-term care provision which may influence the trends in long-term care needs and provision. In particular, estimated care gaps could become less threatening if the trend of migration of trained and untrained caregivers to provide live-in and institutional care in understaffed countries will continue, and if technological innovations will reduce care needs by enabling persons with disabilities to carry out activities of daily living autonomously.
Research center :
- Integrative Research Unit: Social and Individual Development (INSIDE) > PEARL Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Inequality (IRSEI)
Disciplines :
Public health, health care sciences & services
Sociology & social sciences
Human geography & demography
Author, co-author :
Leist, Anja  ;  University of Luxembourg > Faculty of Language and Literature, Humanities, Arts and Education (FLSHASE) > Integrative Research Unit: Social and Individual Development (INSIDE)
External co-authors :
Language :
Title :
Population aging, demographic trends and consequences for long-term care
Publication date :
Main work title :
Cultures of care in aging
Publisher :
Information Age Publishing, Charlotte, United States - North Carolina
Collection name :
Advances in Cultural Psychology
Pages :
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
FnR Project :
FNR9522302 - A Research Programme On Social Inequality Within The National, European And International Context, 2011 (01/06/2012-31/12/2018) - Louis Chauvel
Name of the research project :
R-STR-3064-00 > PEARL-Inst Socio-Economic Inequality > 01/01/2014 - 19/01/2048 > CHAUVEL Louis
Funders :
FNR - Fonds National de la Recherche [LU]
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