Mapping uncertainty from multi-criteria analysis of land development suitability, the case of Howth, Dublin

This paper presents a method for determining and mapping suitable locations for development using Multi Criteria Analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process and considering uncertainties in the process. The method is applied to the case study of Howth (Dublin), where development suitability is assessed against specific protection and conservation areas as well as ground water vulnerability. Uncertainty is incorporated using a Monte Carlo simulation into the Analytical Hierarchy Process calculations to determine criteria weightings. A map is derived, which includes, for all locations, both site suitability for development and the level of uncertainty attached to this suitability. The map combines a double categorization of suitability and uncertainty. The method allows for increased transparency in decision making regarding site suitability for development, as well as increased confidence in decision making to allow for reduced risk in terms of the potential impact of development.