Party preferences; Postwar societies; Yugoslav wars
Résumé :
[en] In postwar elections, voter choices are often shaped by the memory of past violence. Taking Bosnia & Hercegovina and Croatia as case studies, this study examines war as an enduring determinant of party choice among the age cohorts who lived through the wars of the 1990s, and the cohorts who were born after. Based on a representative survey of over 5,000 citizens, the results show that in Bosnia & Hercegovina, war-related issues and social divisions continue to inform party preferences in the postwar generation as much as they did in the generations that came before. In Croatia, by contrast, war-related issues are showing signs of diminishing political relevance.
Centre de recherche :
University of Luxembourg: Institute of Political Science
Aboud, F. E. & Amato, M. (2003) ‘ Developmental and Socialization Influences on Intergroup Bias ’, in Brown, R. & Gaertner, S. L. (eds) Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology: Intergroup Processes (Oxford, Blackwell).
Adorno, T. W., Frenkel-Brunswik, E., Levinson, D. & Sanford, N. (2019) The Authoritarian Personality (London & New York, NY, Verso).
Ajdukovic, D. & Biruski, D. C. (2008) ‘ Caught Between the Ethnic Sides: Children Growing up in a Divided Post-war Community ’, International Journal of Behavioral Development, 32, 4.
Ashplant, T. G., Dawson, G. & Roper, M. (2015) The Politics of War Memory and Commemoration (London, Routledge).
Balcells, L. (2012) ‘ The Consequences of Victimization on Political Identities: Evidence from Spain ’, Politics & Society, 40, 3.
Bélanger, É. & Meguid, B. M. (2008) ‘ Issue Salience, Issue Ownership, and Issue-Based Vote Choice ’, Electoral Studies, 27, 3.
Bellino, M. J. (2014) ‘ Whose Past, Whose Present? Historical Memory Among the “Postwar” Generation in Guatemala ’, in Williams, J. H. (ed.) (Re)Constructing Memory (Rotterdam, Sense Publishing).
Bieber, F. (2020) The Rise of Authoritarianism in the Western Balkans (Cham, Palgrave Pivot).
Blank, T. & Schmidt, P. (2003) ‘ National Identity in a United Germany: Nationalism or Patriotism? An Empirical Test with Representative Data ’, Political Psychology, 24, 2.
Brunborg, H. & Tabeau, E. (2005) ‘ Demography of Conflict and Violence: An Emerging Field ’, European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie, 21, 2–3.
Budge, I. (2000) ‘ Expert Judgements of Party Policy Positions: Uses and Limitations in Political Research ’, European Journal of Political Research, 37, 1.
Canetti, D., Elad-Strenger, J., Lavi, I., Guy, D. & Bar-Tal, D. (2017) ‘ Exposure to Violence, Ethos of Conflict, and Support for Compromise: Surveys in Israel, East Jerusalem, West Bank, and Gaza ’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61, 1.
Canetti-Nisim, D., Halperin, E., Sharvit, K. & Hobfoll, S. E. (2009) ‘ A New Stress-Based Model of Political Extremism: Personal Exposure to Terrorism, Psychological Distress, and Exclusionist Political Attitudes ’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53, 3.
Cehajic, S., Brown, R. & Castano, E. (2008) ‘ Forgive and Forget? Antecedents and Consequences of Intergroup Forgiveness in Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, Political Psychology, 29, 3.
Chirot, D., Shin, G.-W. & Sneider, D. C. (eds) (2014) Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies (Seattle, WA, University of Washington Press).
Costalli, S. & Ruggeri, A. (2019) ‘ The Long-Term Electoral Legacies of Civil War in Young Democracies: Italy, 1946–1968 ’, Comparative Political Studies, 52, 6.
Dalton, R. J. (1996) Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies (6th edn) (Los Angeles, CA, Sage, CQ Press).
Dalton, R. J. & Wattenberg, M. P. (eds) (2000) Parties Without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Oxford, Oxford University Press).
Davidov, E. (2011) ‘ Nationalism and Constructive Patriotism: A Longitudinal Test of Comparability in 22 Countries with the ISSP ’, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23, 1.
de Vries, C. E., Van Der Brug, W., van Egmond, M. H. & van der Eijk, C. (2011) ‘ Individual and Contextual Variation in EU Issue Voting: The Role of Political Information ’, Electoral Studies, 30, 1.
Dyrstad, K. (2012) ‘ After Ethnic Civil War: Ethno-Nationalism in the Western Balkans ’, Journal of Peace Research, 49, 6.
Džankić, J. (2015) ‘ The Politics of Inclusion and Exclusion: Citizenship and Voting Rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, International Peacekeeping, 22, 5.
Fabbe, K., Hazlett, C. & Sınmazdemir, T. (2019) ‘ A Persuasive Peace: Syrian Refugees’ Attitudes Towards Compromise and Civil War Termination ’, Journal of Peace Research, 56, 1.
Fiorina, M. P. (1981) Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press).
Franklin, M. N. (2012) Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries (Colchester, ECPR Press).
Ghobarah, H. A., Huth, P. & Russett, B. (2003) ‘ Civil Wars Kill and Maim People—Long After the Shooting Stops ’, American Political Science Review, 97, 2.
Glaurdić, J., Lesschaeve, C. & Mochtak, M. (2019) ‘ Modelling the Legacies of War Violence: Voters, Parties, Communities ’, Anali Hrvatskog politološkog društva časopis za politologiju, 15, 1.
Glaurdić, J. & Vuković, V. (2016) ‘ Voting After War: Legacy of Conflict and the Economy as Determinants of Electoral Support in Croatia ’, Electoral Studies, 42.
Glaurdić, J. & Vuković, V. (2018) ‘ Post-war Voters as Fiscal Liberals: Local Elections, Spending, and War Trauma in Contemporary Croatia ’, East European Politics, 34, 2.
Glenn, N. D. (2005) Cohort Analysis (Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage).
Green, D. P., Palmquist, B. & Schickler, E. (2002) Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters (New Haven, CT, Yale University Press).
Grossman, G., Manekin, D. & Miodownik, D. (2015) ‘ The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes Toward War and Peace Among Israeli Ex-Combatants ’, International Organization, 69, 4.
Hadzic, D., Carlson, D. & Tavits, M. (2020) ‘ How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting ’, British Journal of Political Science, 50, 1.
Hayes, B. C. & McAllister, I. (2009) ‘ Education as a Mechanism for Conflict Resolution in Northern Ireland ’, Oxford Review of Education, 35, 4.
He, Y. (2007) ‘ Remembering and Forgetting the War: Elite Mythmaking, Mass Reaction, and Sino–Japanese Relations, 1950–2006 ’, History and Memory, 19, 2.
Hirsch-Hoefler, S., Canetti, D., Rapaport, C. & Hobfoll, S. E. (2016) ‘ Conflict Will Harden Your Heart: Exposure to Violence, Psychological Distress, and Peace Barriers in Israel and Palestine ’, British Journal of Political Science, 46, 4.
Hloušek, V. & Kopeček, L. (2010) Origin, Ideology and Transformation of Political Parties: East-Central and Western Europe Compared (Burlington, VT, Ashgate).
Huddy, L., Mason, L. & Aarøe, L. (2015) ‘ Expressive Partisanship: Campaign Involvement, Political Emotion, and Partisan Identity ’, American Political Science Review, 109, 1.
Hulsey, J. & Keil, S. (2019) ‘ Ideology and Party System Change in Consociational Systems: The Case of Non-Nationalist Parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 25, 4.
Inglehart, R. (1984) ‘ The Changing Structure of Political Cleavages in Western Society ’, in Dalton, R., Flanagan, S. & Beck, P. A. (eds) Electoral Change. Realignment and Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press).
Inglehart, R. & Klingemann, H.-D. (1976) ‘ Party Identification, Ideological Preference and the Left–Right Dimension Among Western Mass Publics ’, in Budge, I., Crew, I. & Farlie, D. (eds) Party Identification and Beyond. Representations of Voting and Party Competition (London, Wiley).
Iyengar, S. & Kinder, D. R. (1987) News That Matters: Television and American Opinion (Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press).
Iyengar, S. & Kinder, D. R. (2010) News That Matters: Television and American Opinion (revised edn) (Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press).
Jovanović, O. & Pavlović, M. (2017) ‘ Is it Always us or Them: How do Young Serbs and Bosniaks Perceive Intergroup Borders? ’, in Pratto, F., Žeželj, I., Maloku, E., Turjačanin, V. & Branković, M. (eds) Shaping Social Identities After Violent Conflict (Cham, Springer International Publishing).
Kalton, G. & Flores-Cervantes, I. (2003) ‘ Weighting Methods ’, Journal of Official Statistics, 19, 2.
Keil, S. & Kudlenko, A. (2015) ‘ Bosnia and Herzegovina 20 Years After Dayton: Complexity Born of Paradoxes ’, International Peacekeeping, 22, 5.
Klingler, J. D. & Chatagnier, J. T. (2014) ‘ Are You Doing Your Part? Veterans’ Political Attitudes and Heinlein’s Conception of Citizenship ’, Armed Forces & Society, 40, 4.
Konitzer, A. & Grujić, J. (2009) ‘ An Electorate Adrift: Refugees and Elections in Post-Milošević Serbia ’, Europe-Asia Studies, 61, 5.
Lazarsfeld, P. F., Berelson, B. & Gaudet, H. (1969) The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign (3rd edn) (New York, NY, Columbia University Press).
Lazic, S. (2013) ‘ Memory Claims and Memory Constraints. (Re)Negotiating Statehood and Identities in Serbia ’, Nationalities Papers, 41, 6.
Lefkofridi, Z., Wagner, M. & Willmann, J. E. (2014) ‘ Left-Authoritarians and Policy Representation in Western Europe: Electoral Choice Across Ideological Dimensions ’, West European Politics, 37, 1.
Lesschaeve, C. (2020) ‘ Voting After Violence: How Combat Experiences and Postwar Trauma Affect Veteran and Voter Party Choices in Croatia’s 2003 Postwar Elections ’, Armed Forces & Society, 46, 2.
Lupu, N. & Peisakhin, L. (2017) ‘ The Legacy of Political Violence Across Generations ’, American Journal of Political Science, 61, 4.
MacDonald, D. B. (2002) Balkan Holocausts? Serbian and Croatian Victim-Centred Propaganda and the War in Yugoslavia (Manchester, Manchester University Press).
Manza, J., Hout, M. & Brooks, C. (1995) ‘ Class Voting in Capitalist Democracies Since World War II: Dealignment, Realignment, or Trendless Fluctuation? ’, Annual Review of Sociology, 21.
Massey, G., Hodson, R. & Sekulic, D. (1999) ‘ Ethnic Enclaves and Intolerance: The Case of Yugoslavia ’, Social Forces, 78, 2.
Massey, G., Hodson, R. & Sekulic, D. (2003) ‘ Nationalism, Liberalism and Liberal Nationalism in Post-war Croatia ’, Nations and Nationalism, 9, 1.
McGlynn, C., Niens, U., Cairns, E. & Hewstone, M. (2004) ‘ Moving Out of Conflict: The Contribution of Integrated Schools in Northern Ireland to Identity, Attitudes, Forgiveness and Reconciliation ’, Journal of Peace Education, 1, 2.
Merdzanovic, A. (2017) ‘“ Imposed Consociationalism”: External Intervention and Power Sharing in Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, Peacebuilding, 5, 1.
Michael, C., Lindberg, S. I., Skaaning, S.-E., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Berhard, M., Fish, M. S., Glynn, A. & Hicken, A. (2018) ‘V-Dem Bosnia and Herzegovina-2018/Croatia-2018/Serbia-2018 Dataset v8’, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
Oscarsson, H. & Rosema, M. (2019) ‘ Consideration Set Models of Electoral Choice: Theory, Method, and Application ’, Electoral Studies, 57.
Paris, R. (2004) At War’s End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict (Cambridge & New York, NY, Cambridge University Press).
Perry, V. (2019) ‘ Frozen, Stalled, Stuck, or Just Muddling Through: The Post-Dayton Frozen Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, Asia Europe Journal, 17, 1.
Petrocik, J. R. (1996) ‘ Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study ’, American Journal of Political Science, 40, 3.
Price, V. & Tewksbury, D. (1997) ‘ News Values and Public Opinion: A Theoretical Account of Media Priming and Framing ’, in Boster, F. J. & Barnett, G. (eds) Progress in the Communication Sciences (Greenwich, CT, Ablex).
Rabe-Hesketh, S. & Skrondal, A. (2012) Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata (3rd edn) (College Station, TX, Stata Press Publication).
Ramet, S. P. (2006) The Three Yugoslavias: State-Building and Legitimation, 1918–2005 (Washington, DC, Woodrow Wilson Center Press & Bloomington, IN, Indiana University Press).
Reidy, C. M., Taylor, L. K., Merrilees, C. E., Ajduković, D., Biruški, D. Č. & Cummings, E. M. (2015) ‘ The Political Socialization of Youth in a Post-Conflict Community ’, International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 45.
Rekker, R. & Rosema, M. (2019) ‘ How (Often) Do Voters Change Their Consideration Sets? ’, Electoral Studies, 57.
Ringdal, G. I., Ringdal, K. & Strabac, Z. (2012) ‘ War Experiences and War-Related Distress in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo ’, in Simkus, A. & Ringdal, K. (eds) The Aftermath of War: Experiences and Social Attitudes in the Western Balkans (Burlington, VT, Ashgate).
Rozenas, A., Schutte, S. & Zhukov, Y. (2017) ‘ The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine ’, Journal of Politics, 79, 4.
Sartori, G. & Mair, P. (2005) Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis (Colchester, ECPR Press).
Sekulić, D., Massey, G. & Hodson, R. (2006) ‘ Ethnic Intolerance and Ethnic Conflict in the Dissolution of Yugoslavia ’, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 29, 5.
Smelser, N. J. (2004) ‘ Psychological Trauma and Cultural Trauma ’, in Alexander, J. C., Eyerman, R., Giesen, B., Smelser, N. J. & Sztompka, P. (eds) Cultural Trauma and Collective Identity (Berkeley, CA, University of California Press).
Steenbergen, M. R. & Marks, G. (2007) ‘ Evaluating Expert Judgments ’, European Journal of Political Research, 46, 3.
Strabac, Z. & Ringdal, K. (2008) ‘ Individual and Contextual Influences of War on Ethnic Prejudice in Croatia ’, Sociological Quarterly, 49, 4.
Teigen, J. M. (2007) ‘ Veterans’ Party Identification, Candidate Affect, and Vote Choice in the 2004 US Presidential Election ’, Armed Forces & Society, 33, 3.
Torsti, P. (2007) ‘ How to Deal with a Difficult Past? History Textbooks Supporting Enemy Images in Post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina ’, Journal of Curriculum Studies, 39, 1.
van der Brug, W. (2010) ‘ Structural and Ideological Voting in Age Cohorts ’, West European Politics, 33, 3.
van der Eijk, C., Van Der Brug, W., Kroh, M. & Franklin, M. (2006) ‘ Rethinking the Dependent Variable in Voting Behavior: On the Measurement and Analysis of Electoral Utilities ’, Electoral Studies, 25, 3.
van der Meer, T. W., Van Elsas, E., Lubbe, R. & Van Der Brug, W. (2015) ‘ Are Volatile Voters Erratic, Whimsical or Seriously Picky? A Panel Study of 58 Waves Into the Nature of Electoral Volatility (The Netherlands 2006–2010) ’, Party Politics, 21, 1.
Whitt, S. (2010) ‘ Institutions and Ethnic Trust: Evidence from Bosnia ’, Europe-Asia Studies, 62, 2.
Whitt, S. (2014) ‘ Social Norms in the Aftermath of Ethnic Violence: Ethnicity and Fairness in Non-Costly Decision Making ’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58, 1.
Wilson, C. J. (2008) ‘ Consideration Sets and Political Choices: A Heterogeneous Model of Vote Choice and Sub-National Party Strength ’, Political Behavior, 30, 2.
Zebić, E. (2018) Ljudski gubici u ratu u Hrvatskoj: 22.211 osoba, Radio Slobodna Evropa, available at: https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/hrvatska-ljutski-gubici/28976312.html, accessed 19 May 2021.
Zhang, B., Mildenberger, M., Howe, P. D., Marlon, J., Rosenthal, S. A. & Leiserowitz, A. (2020) ‘ Quota Sampling Using Facebook Advertisements ’, Political Science Research and Methods, 8, 3.
