Exponential Growth and the Shifting Global Center of Gravity of Science Production, 1900-2011

The unprecedented, exponential growth in article production reflects the increased importance of science in countries worldwide. The shifting center of gravity away from the US emphasizes its relative decline as Asian and European countries invest heavily in their national higher education and research capacity. At the same time, cutting-edge knowledge production increasingly relies on building international and intercultural bridges between scholars. Thus, research and development requires investment not only in individuals within organizations but also in the networks, connections, and exchanges that facilitate discoveries. Competition is complemented by collaboration. The simultaneous shift and eastward movement of the centers of economic prosperity and scientific production since the 1950s is not surprising. Economic development provides the resources necessary for scientific production, which in turn spurs further economic growth. Although causality cannot be inferred from this concurrent movement, decades of economic research have shown that education, science, and technology have played crucial and mutually reinforcing roles in economic growth. They are likely to do so even more in an increasingly knowledge-driven global economy.