Evaluating the Probabilistic side of Proactive Computing using Cognitive Modelling Methodology and the Statistical Inference of User’s Cognitive States

In the following paper we present the work in
progress, which aims to validate through theoretical and em-
pirical study the probabilistic side of proactive computing. We
choose the cognitive modelling methodology as an approach to
implement the probabilistic inference of user’s cognitive states
during online activity. We create four cognitive models, which
simulate various cognitive states of a user during the task of
online search of medical terminology. Additionally, we elaborate
several potential scenarios, which may take place during the given
task, and we associate these scenarios with our models as the
integral elements of the proactive system behaviour. Ultimately,
by applying the rules of the Bayesian statistics, we envision to test
the principles of proactive computing in the frame of probabilistic
approach.