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See detailAge, Intentions and the Implicit Role of Out-Selection Factors of International Migration
Beine, Michel UL

E-print/Working paper (2020)

In this paper, I propose to isolate the role of age as a self-selection factor of international migration. The role of age is estimated on intended emigration rather than on observed outcomes of migration ... [more ▼]

In this paper, I propose to isolate the role of age as a self-selection factor of international migration. The role of age is estimated on intended emigration rather than on observed outcomes of migration, using individual measures of intended emigration drawn from a large-scale survey conducted by Gallup. I find evidence that age has a monotonic negative effect on desired emigration for the working-age population. The estimations point to a very robust effect, suggesting that an additional year of age decreases the probability of intended emigration by about 0.5%. This effect is steady over different periods of time and for most types of countries of origin. The results contrast with previous evidence obtained on observed outcomes of migration, suggesting that out-selection factors interact with age and shape the demographic profile of migrants. [less ▲]

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See detailThe solution of the immigrant paradox: aspirations and expectations of children of migrants
Beine, Michel UL; Montes Vinas, Ana Cecilia UL; Zanaj, Skerdilajda UL

E-print/Working paper (2020)

In this paper, we push forward the hypothesis that misalignment between expectations and aspirations crucially affects the educational outcomes of young adults. Using AddHealth, a dataset of 20,774 ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we push forward the hypothesis that misalignment between expectations and aspirations crucially affects the educational outcomes of young adults. Using AddHealth, a dataset of 20,774 adolescents between the grades 7-12, we show that the difference in school performance between migrant children and natives lies within the aspirations and expectations that migrant children form. More specifically, we find that positive misalignment between aspirations and expectations is a driving force for higher effort and better education outcomes of immigrant teenagers in the USA. This force resolves the well-known immigrant paradox. Furthermore, this result is specific to migrant children and does not hold for second-generation migrant pupils. [less ▲]

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See detailCOVID-19 Crisis Management in Luxembourg: Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach
burzynski, Michal; Machado, Joel; Aalto, Atte UL et al

E-print/Working paper (2020)

We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg ... [more ▼]

We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg and in the Greater Region. The model has a weekly structure and covers the whole year 2020. With a limited number of parameters, the model is calibrated to depict the pre-crisis evolution of the Luxembourg economy, and to match post-lockdown leading economic indicators and industry-specific infection curves. The nowcasting part of our analysis reveals that each week of lockdown reduces national output by about 28% (and annual GDP by 0.54%). A first peak of the infection curve was observed at the very beginning of April. If the lockdown measures had been permanent, annual GDP would have decreased by 22% in 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases would have reached zero around mid-June, and the proportion of recovered people would have reached 1.4% of the population. In an economy heavily relying on skill-intensive services, we show that the role of teleworking has been instrumental to limiting the weekly economic output loss (almost by one half) and the propagation of the virus. In the forecasting part of the analysis, we quantify the epidemiological and economic responses to gradual deconfinement measures under various public health scenarios. If the post-lockdown transmission rates could be kept constant throughout the deconfinement period, restarting all sectors would have huge effects on the economy (limiting the annual GDP loss to about 7%) and no effect on the aggregate infection curve. While it is a good time for lifting containment measures, there is also a risk that increasing the density of employees at the workplace and resuming social activities would induce a rebound in the infection curve. Preventing such a relapse is possible with PCR testing of both national and cross-border workers, and with accompanying measures such as (i) maintaining teleworking practices, (ii) reopening hotels, restaurants and cafes at half of their full capacity or with equivalent physical distancing measures and last but not least, (iii) sustaining distancing measures in social activities. Overall, in our worst-case scenario, combining bi-monthly testing with contact tracing and quarantining measures appear to be a suficient (perhaps not necessary) policy option in the aftermath of the deconfinement plan. [less ▲]

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See detailImmmigration and Internal Mobility in Canada
Beine, Michel UL; Coulombe, Serge

in Journal of Population economics (2018), 31(1), 69-106

We analyze the impact of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and permanent immigrants on interprovincial mobility in Canada. Particular attention is given to the Canadian program of TFWs that has intensified ... [more ▼]

We analyze the impact of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and permanent immigrants on interprovincial mobility in Canada. Particular attention is given to the Canadian program of TFWs that has intensified enormously over the last 30 years. Results of the empirical analysis are analyzed through the lens of a small theoretical model that incorporates a job-matching framework (Pissaridès, 1985, 2000) in a migration model à la Harris and Todaro (1970). We find that the inflow of TFWs into a given province tends to substantially decrease net interprovincial mobility. This is not the case, however, for the inflow of permanent immigrants selected through the Canadian point system. On average, each inflow of 100 TFWs is found to decrease net interprovincial migrants within the year by about 50, a number substantially higher than is present in existing literature. This number increases to 180 in the long run. The negative impact of TFWs is ascribed to the fact that TFWs are hired directly by employers, take vacant jobs, and display employment and participation rates of close to 100 per cent. Our paper suggests that, in general, the impact of immigration on labor market conditions depends critically on the way immigrants are selected. [less ▲]

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See detailThe Role of Tuition Fees in Foreign Education: Evidence from Ital
Beine, Michel UL; Delogu, Marco; Ragot, Lionel

in Journal of Economic Geography (2018)

This paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the uni- versity level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility ... [more ▼]

This paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the uni- versity level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international stu- dents in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for Italy. We control for the potential endogeneity of tuition fees through a clas- sical IV approach based on the status of the university. We obtain evidence for a clear and negative effect of fees on international student mobility and confirm the positive impact of the quality of the education. The estimations also support the important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university. [less ▲]

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See detailClimatic factors as Determinants of Migration: Redux
Beine, Michel UL; Parsons, Christopher

in CESifo Economic Studies (2017), 63(4), 385-402

In this paper, we revisit the issue of environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration, thereby providing an extension of our earlier paper. In contrast to Beine and Parsons ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we revisit the issue of environmental change as a potential determinant of international migration, thereby providing an extension of our earlier paper. In contrast to Beine and Parsons (2015) and in light of recent empirical contributions, we adopt an alternative identification strategy in which we only include fixed effects together with our measures of climatic change in order to quantify the net partial effect of climatic change on bilateral migration. Again drawing on panel data from 1960-2000, we further exploit the dyadic dimension of our data to highlight the importance of neighbouring countries and former colonial powers in determining the direction of climate-induced emigration. Our baseline results suggest that climatic shocks affect individuals’ financial constraints more than their desire to move. Our key findings are that natural disasters tend to deter emigration but importantly spur emigration to neighbouring countries. For middle income origins, natural disasters, while deterring migration, foster emigration to former colonial powers. [less ▲]

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See detailAggregate Fluctuations and International Migration
Beine, Michel UL; Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Bourgeon, Pauline

in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2017)

Traditional theories of integration such as the optimum currency area approach attribute a prominent role to international labour mobility in coping with relative economic fluctuations between countries ... [more ▼]

Traditional theories of integration such as the optimum currency area approach attribute a prominent role to international labour mobility in coping with relative economic fluctuations between countries. However, recent studies on international migration have overlooked the role of short-run factors such as business cycles or changes in employment rates in explaining international migration flows. This paper aims to fill that gap. We first derive a model of optimal migration choice based on an extension of the traditional Random Utility Model. Our model predicts that an improvement in the economic activity in a potential destination country relative to any origin country may trigger some additional migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long-run factors such as the wage differential or the bilateral distance. Compiling a dataset with annual gross migration flows between most developed countries over the 1980-2010 period, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of these short-run factors on bilateral flows. Our econometric results indicate that aggregate fluctuations and employment rates affect the intensity of bilateral migration flows. We also provide compelling evidence that the Schengen agreement and the introduction of the euro significantly raised the international mobility of workers between the member countries. [less ▲]

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See detailThe role of networks for migration flows: an update
Beine, Michel UL

in International Journal of manpower (2016), 37(7), 1154-1171

This paper covers the literature on the role migrants networks in explaining aggregate migration flows between countries. We first provide a small review of the literature and the issues at stake. We then ... [more ▼]

This paper covers the literature on the role migrants networks in explaining aggregate migration flows between countries. We first provide a small review of the literature and the issues at stake. We then provide an update of the estimates of the network elasticities using the dataset on migration stocks and flows from Ozden et al. (2011). Using micro-founded gravity models, we estimate the network elasticities and discuss the key driving mechanisms explaining their size as well the variation in the amplitude across categories of destination and over time. We emphasize the specific role of family immigration policies. To that purpose, we cover briefly the recent experience of four receiving countries to highlight the importance of these policies in explaining part of the observed network elasticities. [less ▲]

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See detailMoving Parts: Immigration Policy, Internal Migration and Natural resource Shocks
Coulombe, Serge; Boadway, Robin; Beine, Michel UL

in CD Howe Institute Commentary (2016), (446),

The Canadian government made major changes in 2014 to both the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program and the permanent economic immigration system. Under the previous system and its enforcement ... [more ▼]

The Canadian government made major changes in 2014 to both the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program and the permanent economic immigration system. Under the previous system and its enforcement, temporary foreign workers were in competition with some Canadian residents, resulting in major political backlash. In addition, permanent immigrants to Canada were not generally moving to locations with the strongest demand for jobs. The federal changes to the TFW Program limited the kinds of workers companies could bring in, made the applications more rigorous, and set an employer-specific cap on the use of TFWs. These changes will lead to a decrease in the number of TFWs working in Canada. In the permanent immigration system, the government modified the traditional points system and created the Express Entry System. International applicants must meet a threshold of points before the government will invite them to apply for immigration. The system is skewed toward labour-market demand. It rewards workers who have skills that the federal government determines the labour market needs. It also rewards permanent immigrants who have a Canadian job offer. We expect that the changes to the permanent immigration system will have many positive results. Immigrants will have better skills and improved job-market outcomes, and they will meet employer needs more closely than permanent immigrants did in the past. Likewise, recent changes to the TFW Program will improve the labour market for existing residents. However, the changes in the immigration system may have some unintended consequences. First, they make it difficult for international students at Canadian universities to become permanent residents. Further, whereas TFWs were the main source of labour-market competition for Canadian residents until 2014, new permanent immigrants will increasingly compete with Canadian residents. This change will have profound implications for interprovincial migration. Lastly, the permanent immigration policy prioritizes skills currently in demand, and that preference may decrease the immigration of workers whose skills may be more important in the longer term. [less ▲]

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See detailClimatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration
Beine, Michel UL; Parsons, Christopher

in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2015), 117(2), 723-767

We examine natural disasters and long-run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows, 1960- 2000. We find no direct ... [more ▼]

We examine natural disasters and long-run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows, 1960- 2000. We find no direct impact of long-run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin country characteristics and when considering migrants returning home and the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration and strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs. [less ▲]

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See detailDutch Disease and The Mitigation Effect of Migration: Evidence from Canadian Provinces
Beine, Michel UL; Coulombe, Serge; Vermeulen, Wessel

in Economic Journal (2015), 152(589), 1574-1615

This paper evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors. We derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a ... [more ▼]

This paper evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors. We derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a small general-equilibrium model `a la Obstfeld-Rogoff. Using data for Canadian provinces, we find evidence that aggregate immigration mitigates the increase in the size of the non-tradable sector in booming regions. The mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary foreign workers. There is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration. Interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of Dutch disease from booming to non-booming provinces. JEL Classi [less ▲]

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See detailDissecting Network externalities in International Migration
Beine, Michel UL; Docquier, Frederic; Ozden, Caglar

in Journal of Demographic Economics (2015), 81(4), 379-408

Migrant networks play an important role in explaining the size and structure of migration flows. They affect the private costs and benefits of migration (assimilation channel) and lower legal entry ... [more ▼]

Migrant networks play an important role in explaining the size and structure of migration flows. They affect the private costs and benefits of migration (assimilation channel) and lower legal entry barriers through family reunification programs (policy channel). This paper presents a microfounded identification strategy allowing to disentangle the relative importance of these two channels. Our empirical analysis exploits U.S. immigration data by metropolitan area and country of origin. We first confirm that the overall network externality is strong (the elasticity of migration flows to network size is around one). More interestingly, we show that only a quarter of this elasticity is accounted for by the policy channel for the 1990-2000 period, and the magnitudes of the total network effect and the policy channel are greater for low-skilled migrants. Our results are strongly robust to sample selection, identification assumptions, and treatment for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. Finally, the policy channel was stronger in the 1990s than in the 1980s, possibly reflecting the changes in the U.S. family reunification policy. [less ▲]

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See detailMeasuring Immigration Policies: Preliminary Evidence from IMPALA
Beine, Michel UL; Burgoon, Brian; Crock, Mary et al

in CESifo Economic Studies (2015), 61(3/4),

This paper presents the methods and preliminary findings from IMPALA, a database that systematically measures the character and stringency of immigration policies. Based on a selection of data for six ... [more ▼]

This paper presents the methods and preliminary findings from IMPALA, a database that systematically measures the character and stringency of immigration policies. Based on a selection of data for six pilot countries between 1990 and 2008, we document the variation of immigration policies across countries and over time. We focus on three specific dimensions: the number of entry tracks for economic workers; the measurement and role of bilateral agreements that complement unilateral immigration policies; and aggregation procedures that allow for gauging the stringency of immigration regulations comparatively. [less ▲]

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See detailThe determinants of International Mobility of Students
Ragot, Lionel; Noel, Romain; Beine, Michel UL

in Economics of Education Review (2014), 41(C), 40-54

This paper analyzes the determinants of the choice of location of international students. Building on the documented trends in international migration of students, we identify the various factors ... [more ▼]

This paper analyzes the determinants of the choice of location of international students. Building on the documented trends in international migration of students, we identify the various factors associated to the attraction of migrants as well as the costs of moving abroad. Using new data capturing the number of students from a large set of origin countries studying in a set of 13 OECD countries, we assess the importance of the various factors identified in the theory. We find support for a significant network effect in the migration of students, a result so far undocumented in the literature. We also find a significant role for cost factors such as housing prices and for attractiveness variables such as the reported quality of universities. In contrast, we do not find an important role for registration fees. [less ▲]

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See detailTHE NETWORK EFFECT IN International Migration
Beine, Michel UL

Report (2013)

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See detailSkilled migration and the transfer of institutional norms
Beine, Michel UL; Sekkat, Khalid

in IZA : Journal of Migration (2013), 2(9), 2-19

We examine two impacts of international emigration on the evolution of the institutions in the origin countries. The first impact concerns the influence of emigration per se (i.e. people who left the ... [more ▼]

We examine two impacts of international emigration on the evolution of the institutions in the origin countries. The first impact concerns the influence of emigration per se (i.e. people who left the country can voice more or less from abroad). The second impact relates to the transfer of the norms of the host country to the home country. The existence of both impacts is confirmed using different indicators of institutional quality. The effects appear stronger when skilled emigration is considered. The main conclusions are robust to alternative econometric methods and to the use of subsamples involving developing countries only. [less ▲]

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See detailNetwork Effect in International Migration: Does Education Matter More than Gender?
Beine, Michel UL; Salomone, Sara

in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2013), 115(2), 354-380

In this paper, we analyze the impact that networks have on the structure of international migration flows. In particular, we investigate whether diaspora externalities are different across education ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we analyze the impact that networks have on the structure of international migration flows. In particular, we investigate whether diaspora externalities are different across education levels and gender. Using new data that include both dimensions, we analyze the respective impact that networks have on the proportion of each category of migrant. Therefore, in contrast to the preceding body of literature on the macro determinants of international migration, we can identify the factors that influence the selection in terms of skills and in terms of gender. We find that network effects vary by education level, but not by gender. [less ▲]

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See detailInternational migration, transfer of norms and home country fertility
Beine, Michel UL; Docquier, Frédéric; Schiff, Maurice

in Canadian Journal of Economics (2013), 46(4), 1406-1430

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including ... [more ▼]

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including a transfer of destination countries’ fertility norms. We provide a rigorous test of the diffusion of fertility norms using highly detailed original data on migration. Our results provide evidence of a significant transfer of destination countries’ fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin: a 1% decrease (increase) in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces (raises) home country fertility by about 0.3%. [less ▲]

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See detailFinancial Integration and Remittances
Beine, Michel UL; Lodigiani, Elisabetta; Vermeulen, Robert John Gerard UL

in Regional Science & Urban Economics (2012), 42(5),

Migrant remittances increased strongly since the 1980s, becoming an important and reliable source of funds for many developing countries. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for receiving countries to ... [more ▼]

Migrant remittances increased strongly since the 1980s, becoming an important and reliable source of funds for many developing countries. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for receiving countries to attract more remittances, especially through formal channels that turn out to be either less expensive and/or less risky than informal ones. One way of doing so is to increase their country's financial openness, but this policy option might also generate additional costs in terms of macroeconomic volatility. In this paper we investigate the link between remittance receipts and financial openness. We statistically test for the existence of such a relationship with a sample of 66 mostly developing countries from 1980–2005. Empirically we use a dynamic generalized ordered logit model to deal with the categorical nature of financial openness policy. We apply a two-step method akin to two stage least squares to deal with the endogeneity of remittances and potential measurement errors. We find a strong positive statistical and economic effect of remittances on financial openness. [less ▲]

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See detailDoes the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?
Beine, Michel UL; Bos, Charles S.; Coulombe, Serge

in Resource and Energy Economics (2012), 34(4), 468-492

We argue that the failure to disentangle the evolution of the Canadian currency from the U.S. currency leads to potentially incorrect conclusions regarding the case of Dutch disease in Canada. We propose ... [more ▼]

We argue that the failure to disentangle the evolution of the Canadian currency from the U.S. currency leads to potentially incorrect conclusions regarding the case of Dutch disease in Canada. We propose a new approach that is aimed at extracting both currency components and energy- and commodity-price components from observed exchange rates and prices. We first analyze the separate influence of commodity prices on the Canadian and the U.S. currency components. We then estimate the separate impact of the two currency components on the shares of manufacturing employment in Canada. We show that between 33 and 39 per cent of the manufacturing employment loss that was due to exchange rate developments between 2002 and 2007 is related to the Dutch disease phenomenon. The remaining proportion of the employment loss can be ascribed to the weakness of the U.S. [less ▲]

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