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See detailFeasibility of ERA5 integrated water vapor trends for climate change analysis in continental Europe: An evaluation with GPS (1994–2019) by considering statistical significance
Yuan, Peng; Hunegnaw, Addisu UL; Alshawaf, Fadwa et al

in Remote Sensing of Environment (2021), 260(112416),

Although the statistical significances for the trends of integrated water vapor (IWV) are essential for a correct interpretation of climate change signals, obtaining accurate IWV trend estimates with ... [more ▼]

Although the statistical significances for the trends of integrated water vapor (IWV) are essential for a correct interpretation of climate change signals, obtaining accurate IWV trend estimates with realistic uncertainties remains a challenge. This study evaluates the feasibility of the IWV trends derived from the newly released fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) for climate change analysis in continental Europe. This is achieved by comparing the trends derived from in-situ ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)’s daily IWV series from 1994 to 2019 at 109 stations. The realistic uncertainties and statistical significances of the IWV trends are evaluated with the time series analysis on their noise characteristics and proper noise models. Results show that autoregressive moving average ARMA(1,1) noise model is preferred rather than the commonly assumed white noise (WN) or first-order autoregressive AR(1) noise for about 68% of the ERA5 and GPS IWV series. An improper noise model would misevaluate the trend uncertainty of an IWV time series, compared with its specific preferred noise model. For example, ARMA(1,1) may misevaluate the standard deviations of their trend estimates (0.1–0.3 kg m−2 decade−1) by 10%. Nevertheless, ARMA(1,1) is recommended as the default noise model for the ERA5 and GPS IWV series. However, the preferred noise model for each ERA5 minus GPS (E-G) IWV series should be specifically determined, because the AR(1)-related models can result in an underestimation on its trend uncertainty by 90%. In contrast, power-law (PL) model can lead to an overestimation by up to nine times. The E-G IWV trends are within −0.2–0.4 kg m−2 decade−1, indicating that the ERA5 is a potential data source of IWV trends for climate change analysis in continental Europe. The ERA5 and GPS IWV trends are consistent in their magnitudes and geographical patterns, lower in Northwest Europe (0–0.4 kg m−2 decade−1) but higher around the Mediterranean Sea (0.6–1.4 kg m−2 decade−1). [less ▲]

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See detailTidal analysis of GNSS reflectometry applied for coastal sea level sensing in Antarctica and Greenland
Tabibi, Sajad UL; Geremia-Nievinski, Felipe; Francis, Olivier UL et al

in Remote Sensing of Environment (2020), 248

We retrieve sea levels in polar regions via GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R), using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) observations from eight POLENET GNSS stations. Although geodetic-quality antennas are designed to ... [more ▼]

We retrieve sea levels in polar regions via GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R), using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) observations from eight POLENET GNSS stations. Although geodetic-quality antennas are designed to boost the direct reception from GNSS satellites and to suppress indirect reflections from natural surfaces, the latter can still be used to estimate the sea level in a stable terrestrial reference frame. Here, typical GNSS-R retrieval methodology is improved in two ways, 1) constraining phase-shifts to yield more precise reflector heights and 2) employing an extended dynamic filter to account for the second-order height rate of change (vertical acceleration). We validate retrievals over a 4-year period at Palmer Station (Antarctica), where there is a co-located tide gauge (TG). Because ice contaminates the long-period tidal constituents, we focus on the main tidal species (daily and subdaily), by employing a deseasonalization filter. The difference between sub-hourly GNSS-R retrievals of the ocean surface and TG records has a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 15.4 cm and a correlation of 0.903, while the tidal prediction has a RMSE of 1.9 cm and a correlation of 0.998. There is excellent millimetric agreement between the two sensors for most eight major tidal constituents, with the exception of luni-solar diurnal (K1), principal solar (S2), and luni-solar semidiurnal (K2) components, which are biased in GNSS-R due to the leakage of the GPS orbital period. We also compare the GNSS-R tidal constituents from seven additional POLENET sites, without co-located TG, to global and local ocean tide models. We find that the root-sum-square-error (RSSE) of eight major constituents varies between 26.0 cm and 56.9 cm for different models. Given that the agreement in tidal constituents between the TG and GNSS-R was better at Palmer Station, we conclude that assimilating the GNSS-R retrievals into tidal models would improve their accuracy in Antarctica and Greenland, provided that care is exercised to avoid the orbital period overtones and also sea ice. [less ▲]

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