Monitoring and prediction of hurricane tracks using GPS tropospheric products

in GPS Solutions (2021), (76),

We have reconstructed integrated water vapor (IWV) using the zenith wet delays to track the properties of hurricanes and explore their spatial and temporal distributions estimated from 922 GPS stations ... [more ▼]

We have reconstructed integrated water vapor (IWV) using the zenith wet delays to track the properties of hurricanes and explore their spatial and temporal distributions estimated from 922 GPS stations. Our results show that a surge in GPS-derived IWV occurred at least six hours prior to the landfall of two major hurricanes (Harvey and Irma) that struck the Gulf and East Coasts of the USA in 2017. We observed enhanced IWV, in particular, for the two hurricanes landfall locations. The observed variations exhibit a correlation with the precipitation value constructed from GPM/IMERG satellite mission coinciding with hurricane storm front passage. We used GPS-IWV data as inputs for spaghetti line plots for our path predictions, helping us predict the paths of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Hence, a directly estimable zenith wet delay sourced from GPS that has not been previously reported can serve as an additional resource for improving the monitoring of hurricane paths. [less ▲]

Statistical significance of trends in Zenith Wet Delay from re-processed GPS solutions

in GPS Solutions (2018)

Long series of Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) obtained as part of a homogeneous re-processing of Global Positioning System solutions constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The ... [more ▼]

Long series of Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) obtained as part of a homogeneous re-processing of Global Positioning System solutions constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The correct stochastic properties, i.e. the noise model of these data, have to be identified to assess the real value of ZWD trend uncertainties since assuming an inappropriate noise model may lead to over- or underestimated error bounds leading to statistically insignificant trends. We present the ZWD time series for 1995–2017 for 120 selected globally distributed stations. The deterministic model in the form of a trend and significant seasonal signals were removed prior to the noise analysis. We examined different stochastic models and compared them to widely assumed white noise (WN). A combination of the autoregressive process of first-order plus WN (AR(1) + WN) was proven to be the preferred stochastic representation of the ZWD time series over the generally assumed white-noise-only approach. We found that for 103 out of 120 considered stations, the AR(1) process contributed to the AR(1) + WN model in more than 50% with noise amplitudes between 9 and 68 mm. As soon as the AR(1) + WN model was employed, 43 trend estimates became statistically insignificant, compared to 5 insignificant trend estimates for a white-noise-only model. We also found that the ZWD trend uncertainty may be underestimated by 5–14 times with median value of 8 using the white-noise-only assumption. Therefore, we recommend that AR(1) + WN model is employed before tropospheric trends are to be determined with the greatest reliability. [less ▲]

Optimum stochastic modeling for GNSS tropospheric delay estimation in real-time

in GPS Solutions (2016)

In GNSS data processing, the station height, receiver clock and tropospheric delay (ZTD) are highly correlated to each other. Although the zenith hydrostatic delay of the troposphere can be provided with ... [more ▼]

In GNSS data processing, the station height, receiver clock and tropospheric delay (ZTD) are highly correlated to each other. Although the zenith hydrostatic delay of the troposphere can be provided with sufficient accuracy, zenith wet delay (ZWD) has to be estimated, which is usually done in a random walk process. Since ZWD temporal variation depends on the water vapor content in the atmosphere, it seems to be reasonable that ZWD constraints in GNSS processing should be geographically and/or time dependent. We propose to take benefit from numerical weather prediction models to define optimum random walk process noise. In the first approach, we used archived VMF1-G data to calculate a grid of yearly and monthly means of the difference of ZWD between two consecutive epochs divided by the root square of the time lapsed, which can be considered as a random walk process noise. Alternatively, we used the Global Forecast System model from National Centres for Environmental Prediction to calculate random walk process noise dynamically in real-time. We performed two representative experimental campaigns with 20 globally distributed International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and compared real-time ZTD estimates with the official ZTD product from the IGS. With both our approaches, we obtained an improvement of up to 10% in accuracy of the ZTD estimates compared to any uniformly fixed random walk process noise applied for all stations. [less ▲]

Comparative Analysis of Real-Time Precise Point Positioning Zenith Total Delay Estimates

in GPS Solutions (2014)

The continuous evolution of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) meteorology has led to an increased use of associated observations for operational modern low-latency numerical weather prediction ... [more ▼]

The continuous evolution of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) meteorology has led to an increased use of associated observations for operational modern low-latency numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which assimilate GNSS-derived zenith total delay (ZTD) estimates. The development of NWP models with faster assimilation cycles, e.g., 1-h assimilation cycle in the rapid update cycle NWP model, has increased the interest of the meteorological community toward sub-hour ZTD estimates. The suitability of real-time ZTD estimates obtained from three different precise point positioning software packages has been assessed by comparing them with the state-of-the-art IGS final troposphere product as well as collocated radiosonde (RS) observations. The ZTD estimates obtained by BNC2.7 show a mean bias of 0.21 cm, and those obtained by the G-Nut/Tefnut software library show a mean bias of 1.09 cm to the IGS final troposphere product. In comparison with the RS-based ZTD, the BNC2.7 solutions show mean biases between 1 and 2 cm, whereas the G-Nut/Tefnut solutions show mean biases between 2 and 3 cm with the RS-based ZTD, and the ambiguity float and ambiguity fixed solutions obtained by PPPWizard have mean biases between 6 and 7 cm with the references. The large biases in the time series from PPP-Wizard are due to the fact that this software has been developed for kinematic applications and hence does not apply receiver antenna eccentricity and phase center offset (PCO) corrections on the observations. Application of the eccentricity and PCO corrections to the a priori coordinates has resulted in a 66 % reduction of bias in the PPP-Wizard solutions. The biases are found to be stable over the whole period of the comparison, which are criteria (rather than the magnitude of the bias) for the suitability of ZTD estimates for use in NWP nowcasting. A millimeter-level impact on the ZTD estimates has also been observed in relation to ambiguity resolution. As a result of a comparison with the established user requirements for NWP nowcasting, it was found that both the GNut/Tefnut solutions and one of the BNC2.7 solutions meet the threshold requirements, whereas one of the BNC2.7 solution and both the PPPWizard solutions currently exceed this threshold. [less ▲]

Kinematic precise point postioning at remote marine platforms

in GPS Solutions (2010), 14(4), 343-350

Precise kinematic differential positioning using the global positioning system (GPS) at a marine platform usually requires a relatively short distance (e.g. 500km) to a land-based reference station. As an ... [more ▼]

Precise kinematic differential positioning using the global positioning system (GPS) at a marine platform usually requires a relatively short distance (e.g. 500km) to a land-based reference station. As an alternative, precise point positioning (PPP) is normally considered free from this limiting requirement. However, due to the prerequisite of network-based satellite products, PPP at a remote marine platform may still be affected by its distance to the reference network. Hence, this paper investigates this scenario by configuring rings of reference stations with different radii centered on a to-be-positioned marine platform. Particularly, we applied ambiguity resolution at a single station to PPP by estimating uncalibrated phase delays (UPDs). We used three rings of reference stations centered on a vessel, with radii of roughly 900, 2,000 and 3,600 km, to determine satellite clocks and UPDs independently. For comparison, we also performed differential positioning based on a single reference station with baseline lengths of about 400, 1,700 and 2,800 km. We demonstrate that, despite the increasing ring-network radius to a few 1,000 km, the overall change in accuracy of the satellite clocks that are used at the vessel is smaller than 0.02 ns, and the RMS values of differences between the three sets of narrow-lane UPD estimates are around 0.05 cycles only. Moreover, the kinematic positioning accuracy of PPP is affected by the increasing ring-network radius, but can still achieve several centimeters after ambiguity resolution when the vessel is over a few 1,000 km away from the ring network, showing better performance than that of differential positioning. Therefore, we propose that ambiguity- fixed PPP can be used at remote marine platforms that support precise oceanographic and geophysical applications in open oceans. [less ▲]

Anomalous harmonics in the spectra of GPS position estimates

in GPS Solutions (2008), 12(1), 55-64

Prior studies of the power spectra of GPS position time series have found pervasive seasonal signals against a power-law background of flicker noise plus white noise. Dong et al. (2002) estimated that ... [more ▼]

Prior studies of the power spectra of GPS position time series have found pervasive seasonal signals against a power-law background of flicker noise plus white noise. Dong et al. (2002) estimated that less than half the observed GPS seasonal power can be explained by redistributions of geophysical fluid mass loads. Much of the residual variation is probably caused by unidentified GPS technique errors and analysis artifacts. Among possible mechanisms, Penna and Stewart (2003) have shown how unmodeled analysis errors at tidal frequencies (near 12- and 24-hour periods) can be aliased to longer periods very efficiently. Signals near fortnightly, semiannual, and annual periods are expected to be most seriously affected. We have examined spectra for the 167 sites of the International GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) Service (IGS) network having more than 200 weekly measurements during 1996.0–2006.0. The non-linear residuals of the weekly IGS solutions that were included in ITRF2005, the latest version of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame(ITRF), have been used. To improve the detection of common-mode signals, the normalized spectra of all sites have been stacked, then boxcar smoothed for each local north (N), east (E), and height (H) component. The stacked, smoothed spectra are very similar for all three components. Peaks are evident at harmonics of about 1 cycle per year (cpy) up to at least 6 cpy, but the peaks are not all at strictly 1.0 cpy intervals. Based on the 6th harmonic of the N spectrum, which is among the sharpest and largest, and assuming a linear overtone model, then a common fundamental of 1.040 ± 0.008 cpy can explain all peaks well, together with the expected annual and semiannual signals. A flicker noise power-law continuum describes the background spectrum down to periods of a few months, after which the residuals become whiter. Similar sub-seasonal tones are not apparent in the residuals of available satellite laser ranging (SLR) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) sites, which are both an order of magnitude less numerous and dominated by white noise. There is weak evidence for a few isolated peaks near 1 cpy harmonics in the spectra of geophysical loadings, but these are much noisier than for GPS positions. Alternative explanations related to the GPS technique are suggested by the close coincidence of the period of the 1.040 cpy frequency, about 351.2 days, to the ‘‘GPS year’’; i.e., the interval required for the constellation to repeat its inertial orientation with respect to the sun. This could indicate that the harmonics are a type of systematic error related to the satellite orbits. Mechanisms could involve orbit modeling defects or aliasing of site-dependent positioning biases modulated by the varying satellite geometry. [less ▲]