Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2021)

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social ... [more ▼]

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come. [less ▲]

Mesoscopic behavior from microscopic Markov dynamics and its application to calcium release channels.

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2014), 343

A major challenge in biology is to understand how molecular processes determine phenotypic features. We address this fundamental problem in a class of model systems by developing a general mathematical ... [more ▼]

A major challenge in biology is to understand how molecular processes determine phenotypic features. We address this fundamental problem in a class of model systems by developing a general mathematical framework that allows the calculation of mesoscopic properties from the knowledge of microscopic Markovian transition probabilities. We show how exact analytic formulae for the first and second moments of resident time distributions in mesostates can be derived from microscopic resident times and transition probabilities even for systems with a large number of microstates. We apply our formalism to models of the inositol trisphosphate receptor, which plays a key role in generating calcium signals triggering a wide variety of cellular responses. We demonstrate how experimentally accessible quantities such as opening and closing times and the coefficient of variation of inter-spike intervals, and other, more elaborated, quantities can be analytically calculated from the underlying microscopic Markovian dynamics. A virtue of our approach is that we do not need to follow the detailed time evolution of the whole system, as we derive the relevant properties of its steady state without having to take into account the often extremely complicated transient features. We emphasize that our formulae fully agree with results obtained by stochastic simulations and approaches based on a full determination of the microscopic system's time evolution. We also illustrate how experiments can be devised to discriminate between alternative molecular models of the inositol trisphosphate receptor. The developed approach is applicable to any system described by a Markov process and, owing to the analytic nature of the resulting formulae, provides an easy way to characterize also rare events that are of particular importance to understand the intermittency properties of complex dynamic systems. [less ▲]

A variational principle for computing nonequilibrium fluxes and potentials in genome-scale biochemical networks

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2012), 292

We derive a convex optimization problem on a steady-state no nequilibrium network of biochemical reactions, with the property that energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics both hold at the ... [more ▼]

We derive a convex optimization problem on a steady-state no nequilibrium network of biochemical reactions, with the property that energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics both hold at the problem solution. This suggests a new variational principle for biochemical networks that can be implemented in a computationally tractable manner. We derive the Lagrange dual of the optimization problem and use strong duality to demonstrate that a biochemical analogue of Tellegen’s theorem holds at optimality. Each optimal flux is dependent on a free parameter that we relate to an elementary kinetic parameter when mass action kinetics is assumed. [less ▲]

Algebraic connectivity may explain the evolution of gene regulatory networks.

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2010), 267(1), 7-14

Gene expression is a result of the interplay between the structure, type, kinetics, and specificity of gene regulatory interactions, whose diversity gives rise to the variety of life forms. As the dynamic ... [more ▼]

Gene expression is a result of the interplay between the structure, type, kinetics, and specificity of gene regulatory interactions, whose diversity gives rise to the variety of life forms. As the dynamic behavior of gene regulatory networks depends on their structure, here we attempt to determine structural reasons which, despite the similarities in global network properties, may explain the large differences in organismal complexity. We demonstrate that the algebraic connectivity, the smallest non-trivial eigenvalue of the Laplacian, of the directed gene regulatory networks decreases with the increase of organismal complexity, and may therefore explain the difference between the variety of analyzed regulatory networks. In addition, our results point out that, for the species considered in this study, evolution favours decreasing concentration of strategically positioned feed forward loops, so that the network as a whole can increase the specificity towards changing environments. Moreover, contrary to the existing results, we show that the average degree, the length of the longest cascade, and the average cascade length of gene regulatory networks cannot recover the evolutionary relationships between organisms. Whereas the dynamical properties of special subnetworks are relatively well understood, there is still limited knowledge about the evolutionary reasons for the already identified design principles pertaining to these special subnetworks, underlying the global quantitative features of gene regulatory networks of different organisms. The behavior of the algebraic connectivity, which we show valid on gene regulatory networks extracted from curated databases, can serve as an additional evolutionary principle of organism-specific regulatory networks. [less ▲]

Integrated stoichiometric, thermodynamic and kinetic modelling of steady state metabolism.

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2010), 264(3), 683-92

The quantitative analysis of biochemical reactions and metabolites is at frontier of biological sciences. The recent availability of high-throughput technology data sets in biology has paved the way for ... [more ▼]

The quantitative analysis of biochemical reactions and metabolites is at frontier of biological sciences. The recent availability of high-throughput technology data sets in biology has paved the way for new modelling approaches at various levels of complexity including the metabolome of a cell or an organism. Understanding the metabolism of a single cell and multi-cell organism will provide the knowledge for the rational design of growth conditions to produce commercially valuable reagents in biotechnology. Here, we demonstrate how equations representing steady state mass conservation, energy conservation, the second law of thermodynamics, and reversible enzyme kinetics can be formulated as a single system of linear equalities and inequalities, in addition to linear equalities on exponential variables. Even though the feasible set is non-convex, the reformulation is exact and amenable to large-scale numerical analysis, a prerequisite for computationally feasible genome scale modelling. Integrating flux, concentration and kinetic variables in a unified constraint-based formulation is aimed at increasing the quantitative predictive capacity of flux balance analysis. Incorporation of experimental and theoretical bounds on thermodynamic and kinetic variables ensures that the predicted steady state fluxes are both thermodynamically and biochemically feasible. The resulting in silico predictions are tested against fluxomic data for central metabolism in Escherichia coli and compare favourably with in silico prediction by flux balance analysis. [less ▲]

Metabolic networks are NP-hard to reconstruct.

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2008), 254(4), 807-16

High-throughput data from various omics and sequencing techniques have rendered the automated metabolic network reconstruction a highly relevant problem. Our approach reflects the inherent probabilistic ... [more ▼]

High-throughput data from various omics and sequencing techniques have rendered the automated metabolic network reconstruction a highly relevant problem. Our approach reflects the inherent probabilistic nature of the steps involved in metabolic network reconstruction. Here, the goal is to arrive at networks which combine probabilistic information with the possibility to obtain a small number of disconnected network constituents by reduction of a given preliminary probabilistic metabolic network. We define automated metabolic network reconstruction as an optimization problem on four-partite graph (nodes representing genes, enzymes, reactions, and metabolites) which integrates: (1) probabilistic information obtained from the existing process for metabolic reconstruction from a given genome, (2) connectedness of the raw metabolic network, and (3) clustering of components in the reconstructed metabolic network. The practical implications of our theoretical analysis refer to the quality of reconstructed metabolic networks and shed light on the problem of finding more efficient and effective methods for automated reconstruction. Our main contributions include: a completeness result for the defined problem, polynomial-time approximation algorithm, and an optimal polynomial-time algorithm for trees. Moreover, we exemplify our approach by the reconstruction of the sucrose biosynthesis pathway in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. [less ▲]