Potentials of sector coupling to improve the resilience of electricity and gas networks

in Conference handbook and abstracts of the 32nd European Conference on Operational Research (EURO 2022) (2022, July)

Global warming leads to an increase in extreme weather events that considerably threaten critical infrastructures (e.g., electricity or gas networks). The failure of one critical infrastructure may have ... [more ▼]

Global warming leads to an increase in extreme weather events that considerably threaten critical infrastructures (e.g., electricity or gas networks). The failure of one critical infrastructure may have far-reaching consequences triggering a “cascade of failures” that affects other critical infrastructures. As extreme weather events usually hit affected regions unexpectedly, flexibility in energy systems is key to sustain resilience and rapidly respond to changing conditions, e.g., failed network lines. Hence, we analyze sector coupling (SC) as one option to increase flexibility and exploit synergies between electricity and gas networks. We investigate SC investments that allow for a bi-directional conversion of gas and electricity in the form of gas-fired power plants or power-to-X technologies and their effect on resilience. We propose a two-level market model where, in the upper-level problem, long-term investments in SC technologies are made in anticipation of short-term market clearing as well as uncertain failures and, in the lower-level problem, SC technologies may be activated. We model extreme weather events as a set of discrete scenarios that pose an external risk to the energy system. In our paper, we derive optimal SC investments representing a trade-off between enhancing system resilience and increasing investments. Moreover, we derive optimal SC responses for selected weather events to guide the operation of SC plants under extreme conditions. [less ▲]

Artificial Intelligence in Energy Demand Response : A Taxonomy of Input Data Requirements

in Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI) (2022)

The ongoing energy transition increases the share of renewable energy sources. To combat inherent intermittency of RES, increasing system flexibility forms a major opportunity. One way to provide ... [more ▼]

The ongoing energy transition increases the share of renewable energy sources. To combat inherent intermittency of RES, increasing system flexibility forms a major opportunity. One way to provide flexibility is demand response (DR). Research already reflects several approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) for DR. However, these approaches often lack considerations concerning their applicability, i.e., necessary input data. To help putting these algorithms into practice, the objective of this paper is to analyze, how input data requirements of AI approaches in the field of DR can be systematized from a practice-oriented information systems perspective. Therefore, we develop a taxonomy consisting of eight dimensions encompassing 30 characteristics. Our taxonomy contributes to research by illustrating how future AI approaches in the field of DR should represent their input data requirements. For practitioners, our developed taxonomy adds value as a structuring tool, e.g., to verify applicability with respect to input data requirements. [less ▲]

How Germany achieved a record share of renewables during the COVID-19 pandemic while relying on the European interconnected power network

in Energy (2022)

In 2020, Germany reached a maximum share of 50.5% intermittent renewables in electricity generation. Such a high share results in an increasing need for flexibility measures such as international ... [more ▼]

In 2020, Germany reached a maximum share of 50.5% intermittent renewables in electricity generation. Such a high share results in an increasing need for flexibility measures such as international transmission flexibility, i.e., electricity imports and exports. In fact, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany changed from a former electricity net exporter to a net importer. This paper, therefore, analyzes what we can learn from the resulting development of German electricity imports as a flexibility measure from a market, environmental, and network perspective. We analyze data on electricity imports/exports, generation, prices, and interconnection capacities of 38 bidding zones, respectively 11 countries within the ENTSO-E. In particular, we formulate three hypotheses to partition our overarching research question. Our results reveal that from a market perspective, Germany's increased need for transmission flexibility did not generally result in increased prices for German electricity imports. Also, from an environmental perspective, Germany increasingly relied on electricity imports from countries that exhibited a lower share of renewables. Finally, during the COVID-19 pandemic some of Germany's interconnection capacities to its neighboring countries exhibited a higher utilization. In view of our results, German policymakers may reflect on decarbonization policies considering a holistic European perspective. [less ▲]

Electricity Market Design 2030-2050: Moving Towards Implementation

Report (2021)

Climate change and ambitious emission-reduction targets call for an extensive decarbonization of electricity systems, with increasing levels of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and demand flexibility to ... [more ▼]

Climate change and ambitious emission-reduction targets call for an extensive decarbonization of electricity systems, with increasing levels of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and demand flexibility to balance the variable and intermittent electricity supply. A successful energy transition will lead to an economically and ecologically sustainable future with an affordable, reliable, and carbon-neutral supply of electricity. In order to achieve these objectives, a consistent and enabling market design is required. The Kopernikus Project SynErgie investigates how demand flexibility of the German industry can be leveraged and how a future-proof electricity market design should be organized, with more than 80 project partners from academia, industry, governmental and non-governmental organizations, energy suppliers, and network operators. In our SynErgie Whitepaper Electricity Spot Market Design 2030-2050 [1], we argued for a transition towards Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) (aka. nodal prices) in Germany in a single step as a core element of a sustainable German energy policy. We motivated a well-designed transition towards LMPs, discussed various challenges, and provided a new perspective on electricity market design in terms of technological opportunities, bid languages, and strategic implications. This second SynErgie Whitepaper Electricity Market Design 2030-2050: Moving Towards Implementation aims at further concretizing the future German market design and provides first guidelines for an implementation of LMPs in Germany. Numerical studies –while not being free of abstractions –give evidence that LMPs generate efficient locational price signals and contribute to manage the complex coordination challenge in (long-term) electricity markets, ultimately reducing price differences between nodes. Spot and derivatives markets require adjustments in order to enable an efficient dispatch and price discovery, while maintaining high liquidity and low transaction costs. Moreover, a successful LMP implementation requires an integration into European market coupling and appropriate interfaces for distribution grids as well as sector coupling. Strategic implications with regard to long-term investments need to be considered, along with mechanisms to support RES investments. As a facilitator for an LMP system, digital technologies should be considered jointly with the market design transition under an enabling regulatory framework. Additional policies can address distributional effects of an LMP system and further prevent market power abuse. Overall, we argue for a well-designed electricity spot market with LMPs, composed of various auctions at different time frames, delivering an efficient market clearing, considering grid constraints, co-optimizing ancillary services, and providing locational prices according to a carefully designed pricing scheme. The spot market is tightly integrated with liquid and accessible derivatives markets, embedded into European market coupling mechanisms, and allows for functional interfaces to distribution systems and other energy sectors. Long-term resource adequacy is ensured and existing RES policies transition properly to the new market design. Mechanisms to mitigate market power and distributional effects are in place and the market design leverages the potential of modern information technologies. Arapid expansion of wind andsolar capacity will be needed to decarbonize the integrated energy system but will most likely also increase the scarcity of the infrastructure. Therefore, an efficient use of the resource "grid" will be a key factor of a successful energy transition. The implementation of an LMPs system of prices with finer space and time granularity promises many upsides and can be a cornerstone for a futureproof electricity system, economic competitiveness, and a decarbonized economy and society. Among the upsides, demand response (and other market participants with opportunity costs) can be efficiently and coherently incentivized to address network constraints, a task zonal systems with redispatch fail at. The transition to LMPs requires a thorough consideration of all the details and specifications involved in the new market design. With this whitepaper, we provide relevant perspectives and first practical guidelines for this crucial milestone of the energy transition. [less ▲]

Electricity Spot Market Design 2030-2050

Report (2021)

Driven by the climate conference in Paris in December 2015 countries worldwide are confronted with the question of how to shape their power system and how to establish alternative technologies to reduce ... [more ▼]

Driven by the climate conference in Paris in December 2015 countries worldwide are confronted with the question of how to shape their power system and how to establish alternative technologies to reduce harmful CO2 emissions. The German government plans that even before the year 2050, all electricity generated and consumed in Germany should be greenhouse gas neutral [1]. To successfully integrate renewable energies, a future energy system must be able to handle the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. One important means to address such electricity production variability is demand-side flexibility. Here, industry plays a major role in responding to variable electricity supply with adequate flexibility. This is where the Kopernikus project SynErgie comes in with more than 80 project partners from academia, industry, governmental, and non-governmental organizations as well as energy suppliers and network operators. The Kopernikus project SynErgie investigates how to best leverage demand-side flexibility in the German industry. The current electricity market design in Germany is not well suited to deal with increasing levels of re- newable energy, and it does not embrace demand-side flexibility. Almost 6 GW of curtailed power in 2019 provide evidence that changes are needed with respect to the rules governing electricity markets. These rules were designed at a time when electricity generation was concentrated on a few large and dispatchable conventional power plants and demand was considered inelastic. The SynErgie Cluster IV investigates how a future-proof electricity market design should be organized. The corresponding Work Package IV.3.1 more specifically deals with analyzing and designing allocation and pricing rules on electricity spot markets. The resulting design must be well suited to accommodate demand-side flexibility and address the intermittent nature of important renewable energy sources. This whitepaper is the result of a fruitful collaboration among the partners involved in SynErgie Cluster IV which include Germany’s leading research organizations and practitioners in the field. The collaboration led to an expert workshop in October 2020 with participation from a number of international energy market experts such as Mette Bjørndal (NHH), Endre Bjørndal (NHH), Peter Cramton (University of Maryland and University of Cologne), and Raphael Heffron (University of Dundee). The whitepaper details the key recommendations from this workshop. In particular, the whitepaper recommends a move to a locational, marginal price-based system together with new bidding formats allowing to better express flexibility. We argue in favor of a one-step introduction of locational, marginal prices instead of repeatedly splitting existing zones. Frequent zone splitting involves recurring political debates as well as short- and long-run instabilities affecting the basis for financial con- tracts, for example. Importantly, the definition of stable prize zones is very challenging with increasing levels of distributed and renewable energy sources. The recommendation is the outcome of an intense debate about advantages and downsides of different policy alternatives. However, such a transition to locational, marginal prices is not without challenges, and it is a call to arms for the research community, policymak- ers, and practitioners to develop concepts on how to best facilitate the transition and ensure a reliable and efficient electricity market of the future. We’d like to thank all the project partners and are grateful for the financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research as well as the Project Management Jülich. Hans Ulrich Buhl (Cluster Lead) Martin Bichler (Work Package Lead) [less ▲]

The Cost of No Reform: Assessing the Impact of Different Electricity Pricing Regimes on Indonesia\textquoterights Energy Trilemma

E-print/Working paper (2021)

Many countries have a clear policy objective of increasing their share of renewable energy sources (RESs). However, a major impediment to higher RES penetration often lies in the historically grown ... [more ▼]

Many countries have a clear policy objective of increasing their share of renewable energy sources (RESs). However, a major impediment to higher RES penetration often lies in the historically grown structures of a country\textquoterights electricity sector. In Indonesia, policy makers have relied on cheap fossil fuels and state control to provide the population with access to both reliable and affordable electricity. However, this focus on only two of the three horns of the energy trilemma, namely energy security and energy equity (and not sustainability), may put Indonesia at risk of missing its ambitious RES targets. In this context, a number of small-scale reform attempts to promote RES integration in recent years have proved to be relatively unsuccessful. Like many other countries, Indonesia needs clear policy directions to avoid an unsustainable lock-in into a fossil fuel future. In the last decades, several other countries have successfully restructured their electricity sectors, for example by introducing a wholesale market for electricity under different electricity pricing systems, including nodal, zonal, or uniform pricing. These countries may hold valuable experiences of overcoming the historically grown barriers to successful RES integration through a greater role for market mechanisms. We develop three generic models that allow policy makers to analyze the impact of introducing either a nodal, a zonal, or a uniform pricing system on the three horns of the energy trilemma in their country. We evaluate our model using a simplified network representation of the Indonesian electricity sector. Our results indicate that each of the pricing systems is able to foster specific horns of the energy trilemma. Considering that any major reform intended to improve energy sustainability in Indonesia will only be a success if it also addresses energy security and energy equity, we also discuss our results from the perspective of energy justice and the need to balance the country\textquoterights energy trilemma. Ultimately, we illustrate a transformation pathway for a more sustainable and just transition to a low-carbon economy in Indonesia. [less ▲]

Renewable electricity business models in a post feed-in tariff era

in Energy (2021), 216

To expand intermittent renewable electricity sources (RESs), worldwide energy policy makers have introduced fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs). However, FITs typically expire after a limited time period. Due to ... [more ▼]

To expand intermittent renewable electricity sources (RESs), worldwide energy policy makers have introduced fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs). However, FITs typically expire after a limited time period. Due to the intermittent electricity supply of RES, market distortions, and insufficient flexibility options, exclusive participation in wholesale electricity markets might not be a viable business model for RES that no longer receive a FIT. Thus, it remains unclear which RES business models (RBMs) ensure a viable operation of RES in the post FIT era. To close this research gap, we present a typology encompassing five RBM archetypes: wholesale electricity market (1), physical power purchase agreements (2), nonphysical power purchase agreements (3), self-consumption (4), and on-site power-2-X (5). The typology includes three additional service layers, which may enhance the profitability of RBM archetypes by opening up additional revenue streams: infrastructure services (1), electricity storage services (2), and ancillary services (3). We highlight the need for new approaches to quantify the viability of RBM archetypes and services layers under different regulatory, technological, and market conditions. To prevent the imminent decommissioning of existing RESs, policy makers must shape the next era of the energy transition, weighting the implications of market-based and intervention-based energy policy approaches. [less ▲]

How Different Electricity Pricing Systems Affect the Energy Trilemma : Assessing Indonesia?s Electricity Market Transition

Report (2021)

Many countries have a clear policy objective of increasing their share of renewable energy sources (RESs). However, a major impediment to higher RES penetration often lies in the historically grown ... [more ▼]

Many countries have a clear policy objective of increasing their share of renewable energy sources (RESs). However, a major impediment to higher RES penetration often lies in the historically grown structures of a country’s electricity sector. In Indonesia, policymakers have relied on cheap fossil fuels and state control to provide the population with access to both reliable and affordable electricity. However, this focus on only two of the three horns of the energy trilemma, namely energy security and energy equity (and not sustainability), may put Indonesia at risk of missing its ambitious RES targets. In this context, a number of small- scale reform attempts to promote RES integration in recent years have proved to be relatively unsuccessful. Like many other countries, Indonesia needs clear policy directions to avoid an unsustainable lock-in into a fossil fuel future. In the last decades, several other countries have successfully restructured their electricity sectors, for example by introducing a wholesale market for electricity under different electricity pricing systems, including nodal, zonal, or uniform pricing. These countries may hold valuable experiences of overcoming the historically grown barriers to successful RES integration through a greater role for market mechanisms. This paper develops three generic models that allow policymakers to analyze the impact of introducing either a nodal, a zonal, or a uniform pricing system on the three horns of the energy trilemma in their country. We evaluate our model using a simplified network representation of the Indonesian electricity sector. Our results indicate that each of the pricing systems is able to foster specific horns of the energy trilemma. Considering that any major reform intended to improve energy sustainability in Indonesia will only be a success if it also addresses energy security and energy equity, we also discuss our results from the perspective of energy justice and the need to balance the country’s energy trilemma. Ultimately, we illustrate a transformation pathway for a more sustainable and just transition to a low-carbon economy in Indonesia. [less ▲]

How did the German and other European electricity systems react to the COVID-19 pandemic?

in Applied Energy (2021), 285

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to decreases in electricity demand and a rising share of Renewable Energy Sources in various countries. In Germany, the average proportion of net electricity ... [more ▼]

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to decreases in electricity demand and a rising share of Renewable Energy Sources in various countries. In Germany, the average proportion of net electricity generation via Renewable Energy Sources rose above 55% in the first half of 2020, as compared to 47% for the same period in 2019. Given these altered circumstances, in this paper we analyze how the German and other European electricity systems behaved during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data visualization and descriptive statistics to evaluate common figures for electricity systems and markets, comparing developments during the COVID-19 pandemic with those of previous years. Our evaluation reveals noticeable changes in electricity consumption, generation, prices, and imports/exports. However, concerning grid stability and ancillary services, we do not observe any irregularities. Discussing the role of various flexibility options during the COVID-19 pandemic, a relatively higher grid capacity resulting from a decreased electricity consumption, in particular, may have contributed to grid stability. [less ▲]

Industrial demand-side flexibility: A key element of a just energy transition and industrial development

in Applied Energy (2020)

In many countries, industry is one of the largest consumers of electricity. Given the special importance of electricity for industry, a reliable electricity supply is a basic prerequisite for further ... [more ▼]

In many countries, industry is one of the largest consumers of electricity. Given the special importance of electricity for industry, a reliable electricity supply is a basic prerequisite for further industrial development and associated economic growth. As countries worldwide transition to a low-carbon economy (in particular, by the development of renewable energy sources), the increasing fluctuation in renewable energy production requires new flexibility options within the electricity system in order to guarantee security of supply. It is advanced in this paper that such a flexibility transition with an active participation of industry in general has unique potential: It will not only promote green industrial development, but also become an engine for inclusive industrial development and growth as well as delivering a just transition to a low-carbon economy. Given the high potential of industrial demand-side flexibility, a first monitoring approach for such a flexibility transition is illustrated, which bases on a flexibility index. Our flexibility index allows for an indication of mis-developments and supports an appropriate implementation of countermeasures together with relevant stakeholders. Hence, it holds various insights for both policy-makers and practice with respect to how industrial demand-side flexibility can ensure advances towards an inclusive, just, and sustainable industrial development. [less ▲]