References of "Parra-Cely, Sergio"
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See detailPanic? Probing Angst over Immigration and Crime
Mahe, Clotilde UL; Parra-Cely, Sergio

E-print/Working paper (2021)

We examine empirically whether immigration affects crime in an emerging country, Ecuador. We exploit the fact that immigration flows of Venezuelans suddenly evolved from voluntary to forced, and occurred ... [more ▼]

We examine empirically whether immigration affects crime in an emerging country, Ecuador. We exploit the fact that immigration flows of Venezuelans suddenly evolved from voluntary to forced, and occurred disproportionately along land borders. We use nationally representative administrative and survey data to precisely estimate an economically null effect of Venezuelan immigration on property and violent crime. We also show that natives are more likely to believe that immigration worsens the economy, despite clear evidence of negative labour market impact due to recent Venezuelan inflows. Results confirm that fears over immigration and crime are not necessarily supported by facts. [less ▲]

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See detailIsolating the incapacitative effect of social distancing on crime: Evidence from Ecuador’s Covid-19 lockdown
Mahe, Clotilde UL; Parra-Cely, Sergio

E-print/Working paper (2020)

Identifying the impact of incapacitation measures on crime, such as imprisonment or curfews, is challenging since any such intervention simultaneously dissuades from engaging in illegal behaviour. We ... [more ▼]

Identifying the impact of incapacitation measures on crime, such as imprisonment or curfews, is challenging since any such intervention simultaneously dissuades from engaging in illegal behaviour. We exploit Covid-19 confinement measures as a quasi-experiment to isolate incapacitative from deterrent effects of mobility restrictions in a developing country, Ecuador. Difference-in-differences and event-study estimates show a significant reduction in violent and property crime, relative to comparable months in pandemic-free years. While the fall in violent crime is driven by rape cases, we observe no cross-crime substitution for property crime. Heterogeneity effect analysis indicates that the composite decline in violent crime is entirely attributed to incapacitation. In contrast, the drop in property crime is attenuated in provinces where the economic activity mainly relies on essential sectors and blue-collar occupations, leaving incapacitation to explain 40 to 50% of the composite decrease. [less ▲]

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