Modelling complex systems in the context of the COVID-19 pandemics

Doctoral thesis (2022)

Systems biology is an interdisciplinary approach investigating complex biological systems at different levels by combining experimental and modelling approaches to understand underlying mechanisms of ... [more ▼]

Systems biology is an interdisciplinary approach investigating complex biological systems at different levels by combining experimental and modelling approaches to understand underlying mechanisms of health and disease. Complex systems including biological systems are affected by a plethora of interactions and dynamic processes often with the aim to ensure robustness to emer- gent system properties. The need for interdisciplinary approaches became very evident in the recent COVID-19 pandemic spreading around the globe since the end of 2019. This pandemic came with a bundle of urgent epidemiological open questions including the infection and transmis- sion mechanisms of the virus, its pathogenicity and the relation to clinical symptoms. During the pandemic, mathematical modelling became an essential tool to integrate biological and healthcare data into mechanistic frameworks for projections of future developments and the assessment of different mitigation strategies. In this regard, systems biology with its interdisciplinary approach was a widely applied framework to support society in the COVID-19 crisis. In my thesis, I applied different mathematical modelling approaches as a tool to identify underlying mechanisms of the complex dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with a specific focus on the situation in Luxembourg. For this purpose, I analysed the COVID-19 pandemic at its different phases and from various perspectives by investigating mitigation strategies, consequences in the healthcare and economical system, and pandemic preparedness in terms of early-warning signals for re-emergence of new COVID-19 outbreaks by extended and adapted epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models. [less ▲]

Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis

in Science of the Total Environment (2022), 827

Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective ... [more ▼]

Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective approach for epidemic monitoring and the development of an effective warning system. However, its quantitative link to the epidemic status and the stages of outbreak is still elusive. Modelling is thus crucial to address these challenges. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model-based approach to reconstruct the complete epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. Our approach integrates noisy wastewater data and daily case numbers into a dynamical epidemiological model. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, it quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. Following its quantitative analysis, we also provide recommendations for wastewater data standards and for their use as warning indicators against new infection waves. In situations of reduced testing capacity, our modelling approach can enhance the surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction and robust and cost-effective real-time monitoring of local COVID-19 dynamics. [less ▲]

Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2021)

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social ... [more ▼]

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come. [less ▲]

Assessing suppression strategies against epidemicoutbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model

E-print/Working paper (2020)

The current COVID-19 outbreak represents a most serious challenge for societies worldwide. It isendangering the health of millions of people, and resulting in severe socioeconomic challenges dueto lock ... [more ▼]

The current COVID-19 outbreak represents a most serious challenge for societies worldwide. It isendangering the health of millions of people, and resulting in severe socioeconomic challenges dueto lock-down measures. Governments worldwide aim to devise exit strategies to revive the economywhile keeping the pandemic under control. The problem is that the effects of distinct measures arenot well quantified. This paper compares several suppression approaches and potential exit strategiesusing a new extended epidemic SEIR model. It concludes that while rapid and strong lock-down isan effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such as social distanc-ing, active protection and removal can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitativeunderstanding will support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions. Finally, the paperprovides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diversescenarios with our model. [less ▲]