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See detailModelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
Kemp, Francoise UL; Proverbio, Daniele UL; Aalto, Atte UL et al

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2021)

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social ... [more ▼]

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
Kemp, Francoise UL; Proverbio, Daniele UL; Aalto, Atte UL et al

in Journal of Theoretical Biology (2021)

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social ... [more ▼]

Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come. [less ▲]

Detailed reference viewed: 184 (38 UL)
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See detailCoWWAn: Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis
Proverbio, Daniele UL; Kemp, Francoise UL; Magni, Stefano UL et al

E-print/Working paper (2021)

We present COVID-19 Wastewater Analyser (CoWWAn) to reconstruct the epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, this mechanistic ... [more ▼]

We present COVID-19 Wastewater Analyser (CoWWAn) to reconstruct the epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, this mechanistic model-based approach quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. In situations of reduced testing capacity, analysing wastewater data with CoWWAn is a robust and cost-effective alternative for real-time surveillance of local COVID-19 dynamics. [less ▲]

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See detailDynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks.
Proverbio, Daniele UL; Kemp, Francoise UL; Magni, Stefano UL et al

in PloS one (2021), 16(5), 0252019

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of ... [more ▼]

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model. [less ▲]

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See detailCOVID-19 Crisis Management in Luxembourg: Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach
Burzynski; Machado, Joel; Aalto, Atte UL et al

in Economics and Human Biology (2020), 43

We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg ... [more ▼]

We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg. The model has been used to produce nowcasts and forecasts at various stages of the crisis. We focus here on two key moments in time, namely the deconfinement period following the first lockdown, and the onset of the second wave. In May 2020, we predicted a high risk of a second wave that was mainly explained by the resumption of social life, low participation in large-scale testing, and reduction in teleworking practices. Simulations conducted 5 months later reveal that managing the second wave with moderately coercive measures has been epidemiologically and economically effective. Assuming a massive third (or fourth) wave will not materialize in 2021, the real GDP loss due to the second wave will be smaller than 0.4 percentage points in 2020 and 2021. [less ▲]

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See detailAssessing suppression strategies against epidemicoutbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model
Proverbio, Daniele UL; Kemp, Francoise UL; Magni, Stefano UL et al

E-print/Working paper (2020)

The current COVID-19 outbreak represents a most serious challenge for societies worldwide. It isendangering the health of millions of people, and resulting in severe socioeconomic challenges dueto lock ... [more ▼]

The current COVID-19 outbreak represents a most serious challenge for societies worldwide. It isendangering the health of millions of people, and resulting in severe socioeconomic challenges dueto lock-down measures. Governments worldwide aim to devise exit strategies to revive the economywhile keeping the pandemic under control. The problem is that the effects of distinct measures arenot well quantified. This paper compares several suppression approaches and potential exit strategiesusing a new extended epidemic SEIR model. It concludes that while rapid and strong lock-down isan effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such as social distanc-ing, active protection and removal can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitativeunderstanding will support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions. Finally, the paperprovides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diversescenarios with our model. [less ▲]

Detailed reference viewed: 133 (4 UL)