Extreme Returns in the European Financial Crisis

Scientific Conference (2014, September 29)

Forecasting Distress in European SME Portfolios

E-print/Working paper (2014)

News Flow, Web Attention and Extreme Returns in the European Financial Crisis

E-print/Working paper (2013)

We examine the existence of stock market contagion effects among three groups of countries: the Euro-periphery countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), the Euro-core countries (Germany, France ... [more ▼]

We examine the existence of stock market contagion effects among three groups of countries: the Euro-periphery countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), the Euro-core countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium), and the major European Union -but not euro- countries (Sweden, UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark). Using daily stock market data from January 2004 till March 2013, contagion effects for the tails of the marginal distributions are present for the Pre-crisis and the Euro-crisis periods within the Euro-periphery countries and from the Euro-periphery group to the Non-Euro and the Euro-core groups. We do not find a significant change in the contagion transmission mechanism when comparing the two periods, but for the Euro-crisis periods the extreme returns have a higher magnitude. Finally, we propose a connection between extreme stock market returns, the Web Attention index and two News Flow factors. The Euro-periphery Web Attention and News Flow variables significantly affect the probabilities of extreme bottom returns for the Euro-periphery, the Non-euro and the Euro-core groups. The effect is asymmetric in most of the cases since the Euro-periphery Web Attention and News Flow factors do not affect the probabilities of extreme top returns, with a few exceptions. More Web Attention and more bad news for the Euro-periphery in times of crisis are associated with higher probabilities of extreme bottom returns within and across groups. Granger-causality tests show that the News Pessimism and the News Relevance factors exhibit a two-way causality with the stock market movements while the Web Search Volume Index (SVI) one-way Granger-causes stock markets and extreme bottom returns in the three country groups. [less ▲]

News and stock markets: A survey on abnormal returns and prediction models

Report (2012)

Vast amount of news articles are published daily reflecting global topics. The stories represent information about events and expert opinions, which may trigger positive or negative expectations on the ... [more ▼]

Vast amount of news articles are published daily reflecting global topics. The stories represent information about events and expert opinions, which may trigger positive or negative expectations on the stock markets. The literature describes various methods for analyzing such correlations. In this paper we consider related approaches for tracking the impact of news on abnormal stock returns. In the first part we introduce studies with back- ground in Finance. Primarily by applying statistical functions the works examine unusual price volatilities and explore possible sources and market conditions, e.g. biased investors, limited attention, macro-economic variables, country development state, et cetera. In the second part we present studies with background in Computer Science, which take advan- tage of historic news and the equivalent market values. By following the common learning paradigm the projects elaborate prototypes for trend and stock price prediction. In the current survey we evaluate leading approaches regarding the objectives, assumptions, in- put, techniques, and performance. Moreover we provide a comparison framework of the recent prototypes and identify gaps for future research. [less ▲]

The 2007‐2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity*

E-print/Working paper (2012)

Market Perceptions of US and European Policy Actions Around the Subprime Crisis

Scientific Conference (2012)