References of "Glaurdic, Josip 50026806"
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See detailEthnic Bias after Ethnic Conflict: Preferential Voting and the Serb Minority in Croatian Elections
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Mochtak, Michal UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL

in Ethnopolitics (2021)

In spite of growing interest in democratization and electoral competition after ethnic conflict, we know little about the impact of ethnic violence on voter choice in post-conflict societies. This article ... [more ▼]

In spite of growing interest in democratization and electoral competition after ethnic conflict, we know little about the impact of ethnic violence on voter choice in post-conflict societies. This article uses an original dataset of local-level electoral results, communities’ exposure to war violence, and candidates’ ethnicity derived from names in contemporary Croatia to uncover the relationship between local post-conflict ethnic distribution, ethnic violence, and the electorate’s ethnic bias. Our analysis points to the presence of ethnic bias that is determined by local interethnic balance and exposure to war violence – particularly for communities populated by the Serb minority. [less ▲]

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See detailContesting war memories: Parties and voters in contemporary Southeast Europe
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Mochtak, Michal UL

in Party Politics (2021)

Over the past four decades, there has been a proliferation of interest in the causes, consequences, and dynamics of contestation over collective memories across a variety of fields. Unfortunately ... [more ▼]

Over the past four decades, there has been a proliferation of interest in the causes, consequences, and dynamics of contestation over collective memories across a variety of fields. Unfortunately, collective memories—particularly those of traumatic experiences of violence such as wars and revolutions—have been largely absent from party politics research. Using data collected in an expert survey on the policy positions and ideological orientations of all relevant political parties, as well as an extensive survey of more than ten thousand voters in the six post-conflict countries of Southeast Europe, we demonstrate that collective memories of war are not only subjects of historiographical contestation but are also significant sources of ideological and policy differentiation among political parties, as well as one of the strongest determinants of voter choice. Our analysis shows that collective memories are politically contested and that party politics research would benefit from taking them seriously. [less ▲]

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See detailWarrior candidates: Do voters value combat experience in postwar elections?
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe

in Political Research Quarterly (2021)

Electoral competition in postwar societies is often dominated by war veterans. The question whether voters actually reward candidates’ records of war service, however, remains open. We answer it using a ... [more ▼]

Electoral competition in postwar societies is often dominated by war veterans. The question whether voters actually reward candidates’ records of war service, however, remains open. We answer it using a unique dataset with detailed information on the records of combat service of nearly four thousand candidates in two cycles of parliamentary elections held under proportional representation rules with preferential voting in Croatia. Our analysis shows war veterans’ electoral performance to be conditional on the voters’ communities’ exposure to war violence: combat veterans receive a sizeable electoral bonus in areas whose populations were more exposed to war violence, but are penalized in areas whose populations avoided destruction. This divergence is particularly pronounced for candidates of nationalist rightwing parties, demonstrating the importance of the interaction between lived war experiences and political ideology in postwar societies. [less ▲]

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See detailVoting and winning: perceptions of electoral integrity in consolidating democracies
Mochtak, Michal UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Democratization (2021), 28(8), 1423-1441

How do voters in consolidating democracies see electoral integrity? How does election affect the change in perception of electoral integrity among these voters? What role does winning play in seeing an ... [more ▼]

How do voters in consolidating democracies see electoral integrity? How does election affect the change in perception of electoral integrity among these voters? What role does winning play in seeing an election as free and fair? Building on the theory of the winner-loser gap, we answer these questions using original two-wave panel surveys we conducted before and after three parliamentary elections in Southeast Europe in 2018 and 2020. The article focuses on changes of perception of electoral integrity as a function of satisfaction with the electoral results in contexts where the quality of elections has always been at the centre of political conflict. We specifically explore the socialization effect of elections in environments with notoriously low trust in political institutions and high electoral stakes. The article goes beyond the “sore loser” hypothesis and examines voters’ both political preferences and personal characteristics potentially responsible for the change in perception of electoral integrity over the course of electoral cycle. [less ▲]

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See detailHealth Versus Wealth During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Saving Lives or Saving the Economy?
Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Glaurdic, Josip UL; Mochtak, Michal UL

in Public Opinion Quarterly (2021)

Efforts to combat the COVID-19 crisis were characterized by a difficult trade-off: the stringency of the lockdowns decreased the spread of the virus, but amplified the damage to the economy. In this study ... [more ▼]

Efforts to combat the COVID-19 crisis were characterized by a difficult trade-off: the stringency of the lockdowns decreased the spread of the virus, but amplified the damage to the economy. In this study, we analyze public attitudes toward this trade-off on the basis of a survey and survey-embedded experiment of more than seven thousand respondents from Southeast Europe, collected in April and May 2020. The results show that public opinion generally favored saving lives even at a steep economic cost. However, the willingness to trade lives for the economy was greater when the heterogeneous health and economic consequences of lockdown policies for the young and the elderly were emphasized. Free market views also make people more acceptant of higher casualties, as do fears that the instituted measures will lead to a permanent expansion of government control over society. [less ▲]

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See detailCondoning postwar corruption: how legacies of war prevent democratic accountability in contemporary Southeast Europe
Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Glaurdic, Josip UL

in East European Politics (2021)

Do voters in postwar societies punish corrupt politicians? Or are their electoral preferences distorted by their own or the candidates’ war pasts? We answer these questions by analysing the results of an ... [more ▼]

Do voters in postwar societies punish corrupt politicians? Or are their electoral preferences distorted by their own or the candidates’ war pasts? We answer these questions by analysing the results of an experiment embedded in a survey of over seven thousand respondents from the countries of Southeast Europe that experienced armed conflict since the 1990s. Our findings show that voters in this region punish corruption harshly, yet are more likely to ignore it for politicians with a military service record. This tendency is, however, conditioned by voters’ partisanship and sense of war grievance. [less ▲]

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See detailFootball activism as political contention: Contextual determinants of membership in the association of supporters of Hajduk Split
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in International Review for the Sociology of Sport (2020), 55(8), 1094-1115

Where do politically activist football supporters come from? What are the social conditions under which they are successfully recruited and mobilised? This article answers those questions by analysing a ... [more ▼]

Where do politically activist football supporters come from? What are the social conditions under which they are successfully recruited and mobilised? This article answers those questions by analysing a unique dataset of more than 43,000 members of Our Hajduk – the association of supporters of the Croatian club Hajduk Split – as well as a host of data on the communities they live in. The analysis shows that Our Hajduk thrives in exactly the same areas where most other social, civil and political organisations thrive: among the more educated and more socioeconomically successful. Most importantly, the analysis shows that the pattern of Our Hajduk membership closely follows the patterns of political affiliation and participation in Croatia’s electoral arena and is guided by the opposition to political players who have dominated Croatian football and turned it into a social field marked by corruption and mismanagement. [less ▲]

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See detailTalking War: Representation, Veterans and Ideology in Post-War Parliamentary Debates
Mochtak, Michal UL; Glaurdic, Josip UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL

in Government and Opposition (2020), Online

How do politicians in post-war societies talk about the past war? How do they discursively represent vulnerable social groups created by the conflict? Does the nature of this representation depend on the ... [more ▼]

How do politicians in post-war societies talk about the past war? How do they discursively represent vulnerable social groups created by the conflict? Does the nature of this representation depend on the politicians’ ideology or their record of combat service? We answer these questions by pairing natural language processing tools and a large corpus of parliamentary debates with an extensive data set of biographical information including detailed records of war service for all members of parliament during two recent terms in Croatia. We demonstrate not only that veteran politicians talk about war differently from their non-veteran counterparts, but also that the sentiment of war-related political discourse is highly dependent on the speaker’s exposure to combat and ideological orientation. These results improve our understanding of the representational role played by combat veterans, as well as of the link between descriptive and substantive representation of vulnerable groups in post-war societies. [less ▲]

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See detailConsolidated democracy advantage: political instability and sovereign spreads in the EU
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Vizek, Maruška

in Comparative European Politics (2020), 18(3), 437-459

We expose the way the market evaluates internal political risk and instability in democratic polities by analysing the determinants of sovereign spreads of EU member states over the course of the past two ... [more ▼]

We expose the way the market evaluates internal political risk and instability in democratic polities by analysing the determinants of sovereign spreads of EU member states over the course of the past two decades. Our analysis builds on the “democratic advantage” argument which suggests democracies enjoy preferential treatment on the international market of sovereign debt because of their better ability to make credible commitments. We suggest that, when it comes to the market’s evaluation of internal political instability and risk in democratic polities, there actually exists a “consolidated democracy advantage”. In times of political instability, older and more consolidated democracies pay less of a premium on their debt than their younger and less consolidated counterparts. In other words, the market indeed views the commitment of consolidated democracies with long track records of democratic competition and survival as something qualitatively diferent than the commitment of new democracies with short track records. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling the Legacies of War Violence: Voters, Parties, Communities
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Lesschaeve, Christophe UL; Mochtak, Michal UL

in Anali Hrvatskog politološkog društva: časopis za politologiju (2019), 15(1), 77-101

Wars are extreme events with profound social consequences. Political science, however, has a limited grasp of their impact on the nature and content of political competition which follows in their wake ... [more ▼]

Wars are extreme events with profound social consequences. Political science, however, has a limited grasp of their impact on the nature and content of political competition which follows in their wake. That is partly the case due to a lack of conceptual clarity when it comes to capturing the effects of war with reliable data. This article systematises and evaluates the attempts at modelling the consequences of war in political science research which relies on quantitative methods. Our discussion is organised around three levels of analysis: individual level of voters, institutional level of political parties, and the aggregate level of communities. We devote particular attention to modelling the legacies of the most recent wars in Southeast Europe, and we offer our view of which efforts have the best potential to help set the foundations of a promising research programme. [less ▲]

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See detailPost-war voters as fiscal liberals: local elections, spending, and war trauma in contemporary Croatia
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in East European Politics (2018), 34(2), 173-193

This study exposes post-war voters’ fiscal liberalism using individual level and aggregate-level data covering a decade and a half of local electoral competition in post-war Croatia. Aggregate-level ... [more ▼]

This study exposes post-war voters’ fiscal liberalism using individual level and aggregate-level data covering a decade and a half of local electoral competition in post-war Croatia. Aggregate-level analysis shows Croatian voters’ fiscal liberalism to be conditional on their communities’ exposure to war violence: greater exposure to violence leads to greater support for fiscally expansionist incumbents. Individual-level analysis, on the other hand, shows post-war voters’ fiscal liberalism as rooted in their different levels of war-related trauma: more feelings of war-related trauma lead to greater economic expectations from the government. Our analysis also shows that voters’ war-conditioned preferences for fiscally expansionist incumbents show little sign of abating over time – a testament to the challenge presented by post-war recovery, and to the impact war exerts on political life long after the bloodshed has ended. [less ▲]

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See detailGranting votes: Exposing the political bias of intergovernmental grants using the within-between specification for panel data
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Public Choice (2017), 171(1-2), 223-241

Instead of alleviating fiscal inequalities, intergovernmental grants are often used to fulfill the grantors’ political goals. This study uses a unique panel dataset on the level of more than 500 Croatian ... [more ▼]

Instead of alleviating fiscal inequalities, intergovernmental grants are often used to fulfill the grantors’ political goals. This study uses a unique panel dataset on the level of more than 500 Croatian municipalities over a twelve-year period to uncover to which extent grant distribution is biased due to grantors’ electoral concerns. Instead of the default fixed effects approach to model panel data, we apply a novel within-between specification aimed at uncovering the contextual source of variation, focusing on the effects of electoral concerns on grant allocation within and between municipalities. We find evidence of a substantial political bias in grant allocation both within and between municipalities, particularly when it comes to local-level electoral concerns. The paper offers researchers a new perspective when tackling the issue of politically-biased grant allocation using panel data, particularly in cases where they wish to uncover the simultaneous impact of time-variant and time-invariant factors, or when they cannot apply a quasi-experimental approach due to specific circumstances of the given institutional context. [less ▲]

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See detailStruggling for the Future, Burdened by the Past: Croatia’s Relations with the United Kingdom from Independence to Brexit
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Croatian International Relations Review (2017), 23(79), 5-39

Apart from relations with its neighbours, Croatia’s relations with the United Kingdom (UK) were undoubtedly its greatest international challenge since it won its independence in the early 1990s. Relations ... [more ▼]

Apart from relations with its neighbours, Croatia’s relations with the United Kingdom (UK) were undoubtedly its greatest international challenge since it won its independence in the early 1990s. Relations between the two countries during this period were frequently strained partly due to Zagreb’s democratic shortcomings, but partly also due to competing visions of post-Cold War Southeast Europe and due to long-lasting biases rooted in Croatia’s and Britain’s conflicting policies during Yugoslavia’s breakup and wars. Croatia’s accession to the EU in 2013 offered an opportunity for the two countries to leave the burdens of their past behind, since Zagreb and London had similar preferences on a number of crucial EU policy fronts. However, Brexit changed everything. Croatia’s future relations with the UK are likely to be determined by the nature of Brexit negotiations and the evolution of British policy toward the pace and direction of EU integration. [less ▲]

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See detailProxy politics, economic protest, or traditionalist backlash: Croatia’s referendum on the constitutional definition of marriage
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Europe-Asia Studies (2016), 68(5), 803-825

This article sheds light on the popular sources of opposition to the extension of gay rights in Eastern Europe by analysing the results of the 2013 Croatian referendum on the constitutional definition of ... [more ▼]

This article sheds light on the popular sources of opposition to the extension of gay rights in Eastern Europe by analysing the results of the 2013 Croatian referendum on the constitutional definition of marriage—the first referendum of this kind in Europe. Contrary to popular interpretations, our aggregate-level analysis reveals that the referendum results primarily reflected the pattern of support for the two principal electoral blocs, rather than communities’ traditionalist characteristics or grievances stemming from economic adversity. The article thereby stresses the importance of embedding the issue of contention over gay rights in Eastern Europe into the context of conventional political competition. [less ▲]

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See detailVoting after war: Legacy of conflict and the economy as determinants of electoral support in Croatia
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Electoral Studies (2016), 42

In spite of a rapidly expanding literature on democratization, elections, and conflict, we lack systematic understanding of what determines electoral results in post-conflict societies. This article ... [more ▼]

In spite of a rapidly expanding literature on democratization, elections, and conflict, we lack systematic understanding of what determines electoral results in post-conflict societies. This article offers a novel initiative in revealing electoral patterns in states recuperating from painful experiences of war by analyzing data from more than 500 Croatian municipalities during five post-war electoral cycles. While the findings suggest voters do respond to parties' economic policies, the underlying pattern of electoral support demonstrates that competition is heavily constrained by the legacy of conflict, with the communities more exposed to the violence being more likely to vote for the principal party of the center-right which led the country into independence and throughout the war. This tendency exhibits a remarkable level of stability over time, which suggests conflict dynamics can become firmly embedded in post-conflict democratic electoral competition e even in societies that are not ethnically diverse. [less ▲]

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See detailResponse to reviews of The Hour of Europe by Charles W. Ingrao and Robert M. Hayden
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Southeastern Europe (2016), 40

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See detailPredgovor
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Goldberg, Jeffrey (Ed.) Obama: Vanjskopolitička doktrina (2016)

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See detailProsperity and peace: Economic interests and war legacy in Croatia’s EU referendum vote
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in European Union Politics (2015), 16(4), 577-600

Studies of popular attitudes toward European integration have paid limited attention to the historical roots of voters’ security preferences. Using an original municipality-level data set, we test whether ... [more ▼]

Studies of popular attitudes toward European integration have paid limited attention to the historical roots of voters’ security preferences. Using an original municipality-level data set, we test whether the pattern of voting in Croatia’s 2012 referendum on European Union accession was affected by the legacy of the country’s 1991–1995 war for independence or rather by economic factors. While finding evidence for the impact of the communities’ level of prosperity and structure of economy, our analysis more notably demonstrates that the intensity of the communities’ experience of war had a positive effect on their level of support for European Union membership. This effect also had a strong interactive relationship with the communities’ political allegiances, highlighting the importance not only of historically rooted security issues but also of political actors who make those issues electorally salient. [less ▲]

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