The welfare impact of global migration in OECD countries

in Journal of International Economics (2016), 101

This paper quantifies the effect of global migration on the welfare of non-migrant OECD citizens. We develop an integrated, multi-country model that accounts for the interactions between the labor market ... [more ▼]

This paper quantifies the effect of global migration on the welfare of non-migrant OECD citizens. We develop an integrated, multi-country model that accounts for the interactions between the labor market, fiscal, and market size effects of migration, as well as for trade relations between countries. The model is calibrated to match the economic and demographic characteristics of the 34 OECD countries and the rest of the world, as well as trade flows between them in the year 2010. We show that recent migration flows have been beneficial for 69% of the non-migrant OECD population, and for 83% of non-migrant citizens of the 22 richest OECD countries. Winners are mainly residing in traditional immigration countries; their gains are substantial and are essentially due to the entry of immigrants from non-OECD countries. Although labor market and fiscal effects are non-negligible in some countries, the greatest source of gain comes from the market size effect, i.e. the change in the variety of goods available to consumers. [less ▲]

Crise des réfugiés : quelques clarifications s'imposent !

Article for general public (2015)

Efficiency gains from liberalizing labor mobility

in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2015), 117(2), 303-346

In this paper, we quantify the effect of a complete liberalization of cross-border migration on the world GDP and its distribution across regions. We build a general equilibrium model, endogenizing ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we quantify the effect of a complete liberalization of cross-border migration on the world GDP and its distribution across regions. We build a general equilibrium model, endogenizing bilateral migration and income disparities between and within countries. Our calibration strategy uses data on effective and potential migration to identify total migration costs and visa costs by education level. Data on potential migration reveal that the number of people in the world who have a desire to migrate is around 400 million. This number is much smaller than that predicted in previous studies, and reflects the existence of high “incompressible” migration costs. In our benchmark framework, liberalizing migration increases the world GDP by 11.5–12.5 percent in the medium term. Our robustness analysis reveals that the gains are always limited, in the range of 7.0 percent (with schooling externalities) to 17.9 percent (if network effects are accounted for). [less ▲]

REVENU, POPULATION ET FLUX MIGRATOIRES AU 21ème SIÈCLE: UN DÉFI SOCIÉTAL POUR L’ EUROPE

E-print/Working paper (2014)

International migration, transfer of norms and home country fertility

in Canadian Journal of Economics (2013), 46(4), 1406-1430

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including ... [more ▼]

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including a transfer of destination countries’ fertility norms. We provide a rigorous test of the diffusion of fertility norms using highly detailed original data on migration. Our results provide evidence of a significant transfer of destination countries’ fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin: a 1% decrease (increase) in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces (raises) home country fertility by about 0.3%. [less ▲]

Diasporas

in Journal of Development Economics (2011), 95

Migration flows are shaped by a complex combination of self-selection and out-selection mechanisms, both of which are affected by the presence of a diaspora abroad. In this paper, we analyze how existing ... [more ▼]

Migration flows are shaped by a complex combination of self-selection and out-selection mechanisms, both of which are affected by the presence of a diaspora abroad. In this paper, we analyze how existing diasporas (the stock of people born in a country and living in another one) affect the size and human-capital structure of current bilateral migration flows. Our analysis exploits a bilateral data set on international migration by educational attainment from 195 countries to 30 OECD countries in 1990 and 2000. Based on simple microfoundations and controlling for various determinants of migration, we found that diasporas increase migration flows and lower their average educational level. Interestingly, diasporas explain majority of the variability of migration flows and selection. This suggests that, without changing the generosity of family reunion programs, education-based selection rules are likely to have moderate impact. Our results are highly robust to the econometric techniques, accounting for the large proportion of zeros and endogeneity problems. [less ▲]

On the Robustness of Brain Drain Estimates

in Annales d'Economie et de Statistique (2010), 97

Recent theoretical studies suggest that migration prospects can raise the ex- pected return to human capital and thus foster education investment at home or, in other words, induce a brain gain. In a ... [more ▼]

Recent theoretical studies suggest that migration prospects can raise the ex- pected return to human capital and thus foster education investment at home or, in other words, induce a brain gain. In a recent paper we used the Docquier and Marfouk (2006) data set on emigration rates by education level to examine the impact of brain drain migration on gross (pre-migration) human capital for- mation in developing countries. We found a positive e¤ect of skilled migration prospects on human capital growth in a cross-section of 127 developing coun- tries, with a short-run elasticity of about 5 percent. In this paper we assess the robustness of our results to the use of alternative brain drain measures, de nitions of human capital, and functional forms. We nd that the results hold using alternative brain drain measures controlling for whether migrants acquired their skills in the home or in the host country. We also regress other indicators of human capital investment on skilled migration rates and nd a positive e¤ect on youth literacy while the e¤ect on school enrolment depends on the exact functional speci cation chosen. Finally, we nd our resuls to be robust to using the ratio of skilled to unskilled migration rates (instead of just the former) and to controlling for the demoraphic structure of the population. This [less ▲]

Measuring International Skilled Migration: A New Database Controlling for Age of Entry

in World Bank Economic Review (2007), 21(2), 249-254

In this paper, we provide alternative measures of the brain drain by defining skilled immigrants as those arrived in the receiving country after age 12, 18 or 22. We use data on age of entry collected in ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we provide alternative measures of the brain drain by defining skilled immigrants as those arrived in the receiving country after age 12, 18 or 22. We use data on age of entry collected in a sample of OECD countries and then estimate the age-of-entry structure in the remaining host countries. The corrected brain drain rates are obviously below the global rates calculated in Docquier and Marfouk (2006). 1 [less ▲]