The U.S.–China Supply Competition for Rare Earth Elements: A Dynamic Game View

in Environmental Modeling and Assessment (2022)

Rare earth elements govern today’s high-tech world and are deemed to be essential for the attainment of sustainable development goals. Since the 1990s, these elements have been predominantly supplied by ... [more ▼]

Rare earth elements govern today’s high-tech world and are deemed to be essential for the attainment of sustainable development goals. Since the 1990s, these elements have been predominantly supplied by one single actor, China. However, due to the increasing relevance of their availability, the United States, who imports 80% of its rare earths from China, recently announced its plan to (re-)enter the rare earths supply market. This paper analyzes the strategic interactions among these two countries in open-loop and Markovian strategy spaces. Particular interest is devoted to the impact of heterogeneous supply concepts on (1) the theoretical optimal timing for the U.S. to enter the non-renewable resource market, (2) China’s optimal supply reaction to the U.S.’ entry announcement, (3) the central planner outcome, and (4) the profitability of the suppliers’ extraction behavior. By setting up a continuous-time differential game model, we show that in the absence of arbitrage opportunity, (1) the U.S. should always postpone the production launch until its rare earths reserves coincide with those of China, (2) China’s monopolistic supply is not shaped by the selected strategy, (3) while the duopolistic Markovian behavior is initially more lucrative than open-loop commitment, the opposite situation emerges as the competition proceeds, and (4) on balance, both countries are financially better off when committing to an open-loop supply path. [less ▲]

Earthquakes and Mental Health

E-print/Working paper (2021)

Earthquakes may seriously deteriorate mental health by generating fear and stress as a result of economic and human losses. However, mental health has also been found to improve as a result of greater ... [more ▼]

Earthquakes may seriously deteriorate mental health by generating fear and stress as a result of economic and human losses. However, mental health has also been found to improve as a result of greater social cohesion in affected communities after the event. We examine the short-run effects of earthquakes on a wide set of mental health outcomes in Ecuador. To this end, we combine hospital admissions, death records, and survey data with precise measures of local seismic activity to exploit the plausibly random spatial and temporal nature of earthquake intensity. We find that damaging earthquakes decrease the propensity to be admitted, the number of days of hospitalisation for mental and behavioural disorders, and deaths due to suicide. Estimates from nationally-representative surveys provide suggestive evidence of increased life satisfaction, trust, and religious observance, and thus provide a possible explanation for the fall in admissions and suicides after an earthquake. [less ▲]

Impact of mining boom on the quality of public goods in Sub-Saharan Africa

E-print/Working paper (2021)

In this paper, we investigate the impact of public mining revenues on perception indicators of public goods quality in five mining countries that have recently experienced a boom in their government ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we investigate the impact of public mining revenues on perception indicators of public goods quality in five mining countries that have recently experienced a boom in their government revenues: Burkina Faso, Ghana, D.R. Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia. The effect of the tax revenue boom is identified using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy. Our estimations indicate that people living in mining regions as having a sense of structural disadvantage in terms of the provision of public goods; however, this perception is pro-cyclical in the presence of resource booms/busts. Our results hold even after taking account of the possible endogeneity of our measure of resource revenue. [less ▲]

A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data

in Journal of Development Economics (2021)

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring ... [more ▼]

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring these measures to a micro-founded gravity model in order to estimate the main drivers of refugee mobility across 26 regions in 2017. Our results show that the movements of refugees are sensitive to income differentials and contribute therefore to a more efficient allocation of labor across space. Comparing these findings with those of individuals with a non-refugee status, we find that refugees are more sensitive to variations of income at origin and to distance, while less responsive to changes in income at destination. These findings are robust to the way mobility is inferred from phone data and to the choice of the geographical unit of investigation. Further, we provide evidence against some alternative explanations of mobility such as the propensity to leave refugee camps, transit through Turkey, social magnet effects and sensitivity to agricultural business cycles. [less ▲]

Relative Productivity and Search Unemployment in an Open Economy

in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2020), 117

Using a panel of eighteen OECD countries, we find empirically that the long-run effects of higher productivity of tradables relative to non-tradables vary across time, space and stages of the business ... [more ▼]

Using a panel of eighteen OECD countries, we find empirically that the long-run effects of higher productivity of tradables relative to non-tradables vary across time, space and stages of the business cycle. More specifically, our evidence reveals that elasticities of the relative wage and relative price of non-tradables with respect to relative productivity of tradables increase over time. Our estimates also show that the fall in the relative wage is more pronounced whilst the appreciation in the relative price is less in countries where labor markets are more regulated and during periods of recession. To rationalize the evidence, we differentiate between labor mobility costs caused by job search efforts and hiring costs resulting from search frictions in the labor market in a two-sector open economy model. While time-declining labor mobility costs can account for the time-increasing effects of a productivity differential, international differences in labor market regulation and variations of hiring costs across the business cycle, respectively, can rationalize the cross-country and state-dependent effects we estimate empirically. Finally, labor market frictions have important implications for sectoral unemployment since labor mobility and hiring costs bias labor demand toward the traded sector which results in a greater decline in unemployment in tradables relative to unemployment in non-tradables following higher relative productivity. [less ▲]

Refugee Mobility: Evidence from Phone Data in Turkey

in Salah, Albert Ali; Pentland, Alex; Lepri, Bruno (Eds.) et al Guide to Mobile Data Analytics in Refugee Scenarios: The 'Data for Refugees Challenge' Study (2019)

Our research report employs the D4R data and combines it with several <br />other sources to study one of the multiple aspects of integration of refugees, namely <br />the mobility of refugees across ... [more ▼]

Our research report employs the D4R data and combines it with several <br />other sources to study one of the multiple aspects of integration of refugees, namely <br />the mobility of refugees across provinces in Turkey. In particular, we employ a <br />standard gravity model to empirically estimate a series of determinants of refugee <br />movements. These include the standard determinants such as province characteristics, <br />distances across provinces, levels of income, network effects as well as some <br />refugee-specific determinants such as the presence of refugee camps and the intensity <br />of phone call interaction among refugees. Importantly, we explore the effect <br />of certain categories of news events, notably protests, violence, and asylum grants. <br />Considering news as an indicator of policy implemented at the provincial level, we <br />gain a better understanding as to how policy can facilitate refugee mobility and thus <br />enhance integration. To benchmark our findings, we estimate the same model for the <br />mobility of individuals with a non-refugee status. [less ▲]

Corruption and tax compliance: Evidence from small retailers in Bamako, Mali

E-print/Working paper (2018)

We investigate the impact of corruption on tax compliance using a sample of 700 small business in Bamako, Mali. Our results show that paying bribes reduced tax compliance by almost ten percentage points.

Tax Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Impact of Tax and Business Law Reforms

in Economics Bulletin (2016), 36(3), 1805-1810

This paper contributes to measuring the influence of business (and tax) law reforms on sub-Saharan African countries tax mobilization ability. Relying on a new business law reform indicator, our results ... [more ▼]

This paper contributes to measuring the influence of business (and tax) law reforms on sub-Saharan African countries tax mobilization ability. Relying on a new business law reform indicator, our results validate the significant impact of corporate law modernization on governmental revenue, and unearth a complementary effect between business and tax law reforms. [less ▲]

Hurricane damage risk assessment in the Caribbean: An analysis using synthetic hurricane events and nightlight imagery

in Ecological Economics (2016), 124

History has shown that hurricanes can cause catastrophic destruction and impede economic growth in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, there is essentially as of date no comprehensive quantitative risk and ... [more ▼]

History has shown that hurricanes can cause catastrophic destruction and impede economic growth in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, there is essentially as of date no comprehensive quantitative risk and anticipated loss assessment for the region. In this paper we use synthetic hurricane tracks and local income proxies to estimate expected risk and losses if a climate similar to the last 30 years prevails. We show that on average, the annual fraction of expected property damage and subsequent impacts on income are nonnegligible, with large variations across islands. [less ▲]

Hurricane Damage Risk Assessment in the Caribbean: An Analysis using Synthetic Hurricane Events and Nightlight Imagery

Scientific Conference (2014, July 13)