Research note: Ukrainian Refugee Crisis Tests Luxembourg’s Humanitarian and Integration Policy

Diverse speeches and writings (2022)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have contributed to accelerating the rise in commodity prices (including energy), triggering inflation, and exacerbating instability in an already ... [more ▼]

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have contributed to accelerating the rise in commodity prices (including energy), triggering inflation, and exacerbating instability in an already convalescent Europe. The war has also sparked a massive refugee crisis, the most impressive in speed and size since World War II, whose economic impact is likely to be significant. As of mid-May, the stock of Ukrainian refugees who have fled their country due to the Russian invasion slightly exceeded 6 million, and some 8 million more were displaced internally.1 This refugee crisis imposes huge stress on the humanitarian protection regime and reception capacity of most European countries. This is not only the case in frontline countries such as Poland (3.3 million), Romania (0.9 million), Hungary (0.6 million) or Moldova (0.5 million), but also in other EU member states where the numbers of arrivals has almost reached (and sometimes exceeds) the levels of the 2015-16 refugee crisis in two months only. As of early May, the stocks have risen to 610 thousand in Germany, 70 thousand in France, 40 thousand in Belgium and 5 thousand in Luxembourg. These numbers are likely to grow in the coming weeks, as the war is far from over. [less ▲]

A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data

in Journal of Development Economics (2021)

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring ... [more ▼]

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring these measures to a micro-founded gravity model in order to estimate the main drivers of refugee mobility across 26 regions in 2017. Our results show that the movements of refugees are sensitive to income differentials and contribute therefore to a more efficient allocation of labor across space. Comparing these findings with those of individuals with a non-refugee status, we find that refugees are more sensitive to variations of income at origin and to distance, while less responsive to changes in income at destination. These findings are robust to the way mobility is inferred from phone data and to the choice of the geographical unit of investigation. Further, we provide evidence against some alternative explanations of mobility such as the propensity to leave refugee camps, transit through Turkey, social magnet effects and sensitivity to agricultural business cycles. [less ▲]

A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration

in Journal of Demographic Economics (2021)

Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this pa- per, we conduct a meta-analysis in order ... [more ▼]

Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this pa- per, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors’ reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, of find- ing a displacement effect, of finding an increase in immobility and of finding evidence in favour of a direct versus an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology. [less ▲]

The Role of Tuition Fees in Foreign Education: Evidence from Ital

in Journal of Economic Geography (2020), 20(2), 571-600

This paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the uni- versity level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility ... [more ▼]

This paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the uni- versity level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international stu- dents in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for Italy. We control for the potential endogeneity of tuition fees through a clas- sical IV approach based on the status of the university. We obtain evidence for a clear and negative effect of fees on international student mobility and confirm the positive impact of the quality of the education. The estimations also support the important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university. [less ▲]

Refugee Mobility: Evidence from Phone Data in Turkey

in Salah, Albert Ali; Pentland, Alex; Lepri, Bruno (Eds.) et al Guide to Mobile Data Analytics in Refugee Scenarios: The 'Data for Refugees Challenge' Study (2019)

Our research report employs the D4R data and combines it with several <br />other sources to study one of the multiple aspects of integration of refugees, namely <br />the mobility of refugees across ... [more ▼]

Our research report employs the D4R data and combines it with several <br />other sources to study one of the multiple aspects of integration of refugees, namely <br />the mobility of refugees across provinces in Turkey. In particular, we employ a <br />standard gravity model to empirically estimate a series of determinants of refugee <br />movements. These include the standard determinants such as province characteristics, <br />distances across provinces, levels of income, network effects as well as some <br />refugee-specific determinants such as the presence of refugee camps and the intensity <br />of phone call interaction among refugees. Importantly, we explore the effect <br />of certain categories of news events, notably protests, violence, and asylum grants. <br />Considering news as an indicator of policy implemented at the provincial level, we <br />gain a better understanding as to how policy can facilitate refugee mobility and thus <br />enhance integration. To benchmark our findings, we estimate the same model for the <br />mobility of individuals with a non-refugee status. [less ▲]

Immmigration and Internal Mobility in Canada

in Journal of Population economics (2018), 31(1), 69-106

We analyze the impact of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and permanent immigrants on interprovincial mobility in Canada. Particular attention is given to the Canadian program of TFWs that has intensified ... [more ▼]

We analyze the impact of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and permanent immigrants on interprovincial mobility in Canada. Particular attention is given to the Canadian program of TFWs that has intensified enormously over the last 30 years. Results of the empirical analysis are analyzed through the lens of a small theoretical model that incorporates a job-matching framework (Pissaridès, 1985, 2000) in a migration model à la Harris and Todaro (1970). We find that the inflow of TFWs into a given province tends to substantially decrease net interprovincial mobility. This is not the case, however, for the inflow of permanent immigrants selected through the Canadian point system. On average, each inflow of 100 TFWs is found to decrease net interprovincial migrants within the year by about 50, a number substantially higher than is present in existing literature. This number increases to 180 in the long run. The negative impact of TFWs is ascribed to the fact that TFWs are hired directly by employers, take vacant jobs, and display employment and participation rates of close to 100 per cent. Our paper suggests that, in general, the impact of immigration on labor market conditions depends critically on the way immigrants are selected. [less ▲]

Moving Parts: Immigration Policy, Internal Migration and Natural resource Shocks

in CD Howe Institute Commentary (2016), (446),

The Canadian government made major changes in 2014 to both the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program and the permanent economic immigration system. Under the previous system and its enforcement ... [more ▼]

The Canadian government made major changes in 2014 to both the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program and the permanent economic immigration system. Under the previous system and its enforcement, temporary foreign workers were in competition with some Canadian residents, resulting in major political backlash. In addition, permanent immigrants to Canada were not generally moving to locations with the strongest demand for jobs. The federal changes to the TFW Program limited the kinds of workers companies could bring in, made the applications more rigorous, and set an employer-specific cap on the use of TFWs. These changes will lead to a decrease in the number of TFWs working in Canada. In the permanent immigration system, the government modified the traditional points system and created the Express Entry System. International applicants must meet a threshold of points before the government will invite them to apply for immigration. The system is skewed toward labour-market demand. It rewards workers who have skills that the federal government determines the labour market needs. It also rewards permanent immigrants who have a Canadian job offer. We expect that the changes to the permanent immigration system will have many positive results. Immigrants will have better skills and improved job-market outcomes, and they will meet employer needs more closely than permanent immigrants did in the past. Likewise, recent changes to the TFW Program will improve the labour market for existing residents. However, the changes in the immigration system may have some unintended consequences. First, they make it difficult for international students at Canadian universities to become permanent residents. Further, whereas TFWs were the main source of labour-market competition for Canadian residents until 2014, new permanent immigrants will increasingly compete with Canadian residents. This change will have profound implications for interprovincial migration. Lastly, the permanent immigration policy prioritizes skills currently in demand, and that preference may decrease the immigration of workers whose skills may be more important in the longer term. [less ▲]

The Evolution of Immigration and Asylum Policy in Luxembourg: Insights from Impala

in Critical Quarterly for Legislation and Law (2016), 99(2), 132-154

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2015), 117(2), 723-767

We examine natural disasters and long-run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows, 1960- 2000. We find no direct ... [more ▼]

We examine natural disasters and long-run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows, 1960- 2000. We find no direct impact of long-run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin country characteristics and when considering migrants returning home and the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration and strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs. [less ▲]

Dissecting Network externalities in International Migration

in Journal of Demographic Economics (2015), 81(4), 379-408

Migrant networks play an important role in explaining the size and structure of migration flows. They affect the private costs and benefits of migration (assimilation channel) and lower legal entry ... [more ▼]

Migrant networks play an important role in explaining the size and structure of migration flows. They affect the private costs and benefits of migration (assimilation channel) and lower legal entry barriers through family reunification programs (policy channel). This paper presents a microfounded identification strategy allowing to disentangle the relative importance of these two channels. Our empirical analysis exploits U.S. immigration data by metropolitan area and country of origin. We first confirm that the overall network externality is strong (the elasticity of migration flows to network size is around one). More interestingly, we show that only a quarter of this elasticity is accounted for by the policy channel for the 1990-2000 period, and the magnitudes of the total network effect and the policy channel are greater for low-skilled migrants. Our results are strongly robust to sample selection, identification assumptions, and treatment for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. Finally, the policy channel was stronger in the 1990s than in the 1980s, possibly reflecting the changes in the U.S. family reunification policy. [less ▲]