DEMAND-SIDE-MANAGEMENT MIT WÄRMEPUMPEN IN LUXEMBURG - POTENZIALE UND HERAUSFORDERUNGEN DER WÄRMEPUMPENFLEXIBILITÄT FÜR DIE SYSTEMINTEGRATION DER ERNEUERBAREN ENERGIEN

Doctoral thesis (2020)

In 2020 the European Union introduced the “Green Deal” and declared the target of climate neutrality until 2050. The necessary measures will lead to a massive roll-out of fluctuating renewable energies ... [more ▼]

In 2020 the European Union introduced the “Green Deal” and declared the target of climate neutrality until 2050. The necessary measures will lead to a massive roll-out of fluctuating renewable energies such as wind power and photovoltaic. This in turn will lead to an increasing need for flexibility in the energy system. The design of the future European internal market for electricity intends to let end-consumers actively participate by managing their consumption based on variable electricity prices and in that way contributing to the flexibility demand. For private households, these Demand-Side-Management measures target heat pumps in particular. This work analyzes the flexibility potential of heat pumps in residential buildings and addresses challenges in the Luxembourgish context. The time horizon for the evaluation is defined as 2030. The methodology presented in this work is applicable to similar regions in Europe. The research questions are investigated by the means of thermal simulation. The software TRNSYS is used for the building models and heating systems. A Model-Predictive-Control, developed in MATLAB, is sending control signals to the heat pump that are based on variable electricity tariffs. The heat extraction of the thermal energy storage tank is determined by a neural network, so that the Model-Predictive-Control in itself works without an integrated building model. The suitability of the approach is validated by the simulation results. Based on the national developments in the building stock, there is a theoretical heat pump potential of 236-353 MWel that can offer flexibility. The band with arises because of different suppositions for the yearly refurbishment rate. The technical potential is significantly lower and is determined by the developments of the national heat pump market. As the data availability for Luxemburg was insufficient, a heat market study was initiated that investigated sales numbers for the period of 2014-2018 and derived scenarios until 2030. The technical potential in conclusion amounts to 30-73 MWel. The insights of the national context are used for the design of the simulation models. The concept of Demand-Side-Management is tested with numerous simulation cases and is then evaluated on aspects of energy efficiency, profitability and load shifting. In total there are three reference buildings, one single-family and one multi-family house, each according to the energetic standard of a new construction, and one single-family house that meets the legal requirements for energetic refurbishment in Luxembourg. In order to demonstrate the influence of the heat source there are simulations with air-to-water as well as geothermal heat pumps. The analysis furthermore considers six different thermal energy storage capacities. The influence of the predictive control strategy is demonstrated by a comparison with reference cases that work with a common control. The flexible electricity tariffs are based on real market data of the EPEX-Spot Day-Ahead auction and is completed with grid fees and taxes in Luxembourg. The simulation results confirm the suitability of the Model-Predictive-Control approach without integrated building model. Air-to-water heat pumps achieve better efficiency and cost reduction than geothermal heat pumps, as they have two ways to reduce the costs: via the variable electricity tariffs and via a performance optimization of the heat pump itself. The performance optimization is the preferred choice of the control strategy if the price profile consists of mainly static components. Buildings with high insulation level show a sharper reaction to price signals than buildings with lower insulation standard. For the latter in return the absolute cost reduction potential is better as the overall energy demand is higher. With low capacity thermal energy storage, the energy efficiency and cost reduction potential are limited since the reaction to price signals immediately leads to a temperature rise in the tank counteracting the overall objective by increasing the heat pump consumption. With increasing tank capacity, this aspect improves. Nevertheless, there is a limit where the increasing heat losses of the tank compensate the positive aspects of bigger tanks. As the heating systems are usually not equipped with larger thermal energy storage tanks, there is an extra investment for the end-consumer that needs to be compensated by the cost reduction of the Demand-Side-Management. This profitability is only given for the multi-family house and the less insulated single-family house, equipped with an air-to-water heat pump and small to medium sized storage tanks. Two alternative price profiles are tested in order to demonstrate the influence of the price signals. In the first case, a higher volatility of the prices is presumed, to reflect a higher market share of renewable energies. In the second case variable grid fees are added to the volatile prices to further increase the incentive of Demand-Side-Management. In all simulation cases the cost reduction increases so that that buildings with high thermal insulation and air-to-water heat pump are profitable with medium sized thermal energy storage. At the same time a change of behavior of the predictive controller can be observed as the price signals become more attractive than the aspect of performance optimization, leading to an increased electricity consumption in comparison to the previous price profile. An overall economic potential of 22-53 MWel can be concluded. The numerous constraints for the heat pump operation lead to an implicit load management effect that is difficult to interpret. Nevertheless, there is a clear systemic benefit of Demand-Side-Management that result from the better performance of air-to-water heat pumps and the highly probable reaction to extreme price signals. The assessment of a high number of heat pumps by the grid operator in order to stabilize the electricity grid is questionable. The main counter arguments are the limited reliability considering the constraints and the low electric power compared to the e-mobility that will be the major challenge of the low voltage grids in the nearer future. Concepts, where energy providers or direct marketers assess the flexibility to optimize procurement strategies seems more interesting. In this context the profitability is the main question that cannot be verified based on the findings, except if there is added value stemming from synergy effects that were not considered in this work. In relation to the peak demand of the Luxembourgish energy system there is a relevant heat pump potential for Demand-Side-Management. In the nearer future the subject should be further investigated, keeping in mind the findings and sensitivities presented in this work. [less ▲]

Demand-Side-Management Potentials for Heat-Pumps in Residential Buildings

Scientific Conference (2019, September 02)

The rollout of volatile renewable energies, within the European Union creates a need for flexibility, which in turn can be solved with Demand-Side-Management. Heat pumps in single-family houses can ... [more ▼]

The rollout of volatile renewable energies, within the European Union creates a need for flexibility, which in turn can be solved with Demand-Side-Management. Heat pumps in single-family houses can contribute by adapting their consumption towards price signals, boosting the integration of renewable energies at the same time. Studies so far only focus on Nearly-Zero-Energy-Buildings neglecting the potential of buildings with lower energy standard. This paper illustrates the load shifting potential of two reference-building types by the means of thermal simulation. Therefore, a designed control unit adapts the operation times of the heat pump according to spot market price signals while simultaneously sustaining indoor comfort. The results show remarkable cost reductions achieved by load shifting for both cases. In addition, the approach of this study facilitates the projection of Demand-Side-Management potentials of whole regions. [less ▲]