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See detailPuzzles of Coalition Formation. Coalition Theory and Deviant Cases
Andeweg, Rudy; De Winter, Lieven; Dumont, Patrick UL

Book published by Routledge (2011)

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See detailWho gets what in coalition governments? Predictors of portfolio allocation in parliamentary democracies
Bäck, Hanna; Debus, Marc; Dumont, Patrick UL

in European Journal of Political Research (2011), 50(4), 441-478

Ministerial portfolios are the most obvious payoffs for parties entering a governing coalition in parliamentary democracies. This renders the bargaining over portfolios an important phase of the ... [more ▼]

Ministerial portfolios are the most obvious payoffs for parties entering a governing coalition in parliamentary democracies. This renders the bargaining over portfolios an important phase of the government formation process. The question of 'who gets what, and why?' in terms of ministerial remits has not yet received much attention by coalition or party scholars. This article focuses on this qualitative aspect of portfolio allocation and uses a new comparative dataset to evaluate a number of hypotheses that can be drawn from the literature. The main hypothesis is that parties which, in their election manifestos, emphasise themes corresponding to the policy remit of specific cabinet portfolios are more likely to obtain control over these portfolios. The results show that policy saliency is indeed an important predictor of portfolio allocation in postwar Western European parliamentary democracies. [less ▲]

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See detailAnalyse des élections au Luxembourg de Juin 2009
Dumont, Patrick UL; Kies, Raphaël UL; Spreitzer, Astrid et al

Report (2010)

Le chapitre 1 Législations, partis et campagne électorale au Luxembourg retrace d’une part les transformations du système politique luxembourgeois (avec la modification de la loi électorale, la ... [more ▼]

Le chapitre 1 Législations, partis et campagne électorale au Luxembourg retrace d’une part les transformations du système politique luxembourgeois (avec la modification de la loi électorale, la promulgation de loi sur le financement des partis politiques et les évènements qui ont marqué la législature 2004-2009) et, d’autre part analyse les enjeux et challenges de la législature 2004-2009. Il se focalise sur la campagne électorale de septembre 2008 à juin 2009 (aussi bien à travers les sondages que par un dépouillement exhaustif de la presse quotidienne et hebdomadaire luxembourgeoise de langue allemande et française à caractère politique). Le chapitre 2 Formation de l’opinion et candidats aux législatives et européennes a pour objet les conditions de la formation de l’opinion, de la représentation et de la médiation en politique au Grand-Duché. Ce chapitre informe particulièrement sur comment les citoyens forment leurs intentions de vote, les stratégies des partis tant dans le choix des candidatures que dans la mise en forme de leurs identités politiques et leurs relations avec les autres acteurs du système politique, communément appelés la « société civile ». Le chapitre 3 Résultats des élections législatives et européennes introduit non seulement de nouveaux modes de calculs pour la présentation des résultats, mais établit aussi des corrélations entre des caractéristiques socio-démographiques, tirées des données du recensement de 2001, des données statistiques sur la population en 2008 et en 2009 du STATEC et de l’IGSS de 2009 et des résultats des partis au niveau des 116 communes du Luxembourg. Les chapitre 4 et 5 Électorats dans les sondages pré & post-électoral visent, quant à eux, à établir le portrait sociologique des électorats des partis et leurs valeurs à travers tant les classiques déterminants du vote, comme la structure par âge, par genre, par niveau d’instruction et par situation face à l’emploi que par l’échelle des valeurs « matérialistes »/ »post-matérialistes » conceptualisée par Ronald Inglehart et ses disciples. En plus de l’étude des Luxembourgeois, pour la première fois, nous analysons aussi les étrangers résidents au Luxembourg. Le chapitre 6 Étude des bulletins marque la continuité avec les études précédentes sur les élections législatives et européennes, puisque c’est la huitième fois qu’il est procédé à un échantillonnage des bulletins réels pour les élections législatives. Cette analyse permet, d’une part, d’évaluer les proximités entre les partis eux-mêmes et, d’autre part, de mesurer les performances des politiques électorales personnelles des candidats, indépendamment de leurs affiliations personnelles. Nouveauté en 2009, il a été étudié également les bulletins pour les élections européennes. [less ▲]

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See detailLuxembourg
Dumont, Patrick UL; Kies, Raphaël UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook (2010)

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See detailLe paysage politique
Dumont, Patrick UL; Fehlen, Fernand UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in Der Luxemburg Atlas / Atlas du Luxembourg (2009)

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See detailLuxembourg
Dumont, Patrick UL; Kies, Raphaël UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook (2009)

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See detailDoes European Integration Lead to a 'Presidentialization' of Executive Politics? Ministerial Selection in Swedish Postwar Cabinets
Bäck, Hanna; Dumont, Patrick UL; Meier, Henk Erik et al

in EUROPEAN UNION POLITICS (2009), 10(2), 226-252

In this article, we address recent claims that executive legislative relations in parliamentary democracies are undergoing important changes owing to either a 'presidentialization' or a 'Europeanization ... [more ▼]

In this article, we address recent claims that executive legislative relations in parliamentary democracies are undergoing important changes owing to either a 'presidentialization' or a 'Europeanization' of domestic political systems. Therefore, we test empirically whether parliamentary democracies are indeed experiencing changes in executive-legislative relations and whether these developments can, in part, be explained by an increase in European integration. Using data on ministerial selection in Swedish cabinets during the years 1952-2006, we find that there appears to be a slight tendency towards 'presidentialization', which is indicated by a decrease in ministers with a parliamentary background being appointed, and that there exists some support for the notion that Sweden's political and economic integration into the European Union is part of the explanation for this change. [less ▲]

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See detailThe Selection of Ministers in Europe. Hiring and Firing
Dowding, Keith; Dumont, Patrick UL

Book published by Routledge (2009)

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See detailLuxembourg: The challenge of inclusive democracy in a 'local state'
Dumont, Patrick UL; Kies, Raphaël UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in Loughlin, John; Hendriks, Frank; Lidström, Anders (Eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Local and Regional Democracy in Europe (2009)

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See detailLuxembourg
Dumont, Patrick UL; Kies, Raphaël UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook (2008)

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See detailMaking the first move. A two-stage analysis of the role of formateurs in parliamentary government formation
Bäck, Hanna; Dumont, Patrick UL

in PUBLIC CHOICE (2008), 135(3-4), 353-373

A standard conclusion of theorists who model bargaining as a non-cooperative game is that the party designated to make the first move-the formateur party-will determine the bargaining outcome. Most ... [more ▼]

A standard conclusion of theorists who model bargaining as a non-cooperative game is that the party designated to make the first move-the formateur party-will determine the bargaining outcome. Most empirical studies of parliamentary coalition formation have paid surprisingly little attention to the formation process. In this paper we model government formation as a two-stage unordered discrete choice problem that better reflects this process. The first step involves the selection of a formateur party, and the second involves the choice of partners by the predicted formateur. We evaluate several hypotheses for the two stages, using a data set of all cabinets formed in the Western European countries from 1970 to 2006. In our analyses of formateur selection, we find that party size is clearly the dominant feature. In the second stage, we show that when predicting government composition it is fruitful to add information drawn from a first stage analysis. [less ▲]

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See detailCombining large-n and small-n strategies: The way forward in coalition research
Bäck, Hanna; Dumont, Patrick UL

in WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS (2007), 30(3), 467-501

Current research on coalition formation is plagued by two serious problems. First, we cannot predict more than about one-third of the Western European governments, and, second, we do not have a good ... [more ▼]

Current research on coalition formation is plagued by two serious problems. First, we cannot predict more than about one-third of the Western European governments, and, second, we do not have a good understanding of the causal mechanisms that explain the effects found in large-n coalition studies. This article illustrates that by combining statistical and case study analyses we can solve these problems. Since statistical analyses are well equipped for measuring and isolating effects, we argue that a coalition study should start with such an analysis. Predictions made in this analysis are then used to select cases. In order to study the mechanisms underlying effects found in large-n coalition studies, we argue for selecting cases that are predicted, and then applying the method of process verification. In order to find new explanatory variables, we argue for selecting cases that are deviant, and then applying the method of process induction. Substantive results of our analysis for coalition theory point to the importance of party strategies based on parties' past experiences, which aim at curtailing present and future costs of competing and governing with other parties. [less ▲]

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See detailPolicy with or without parties? A comparative analysis of policy priorities and policy change in Belgium, 1991 to 2000
Walgrave, Stefaan; Varone, Frederic; Dumont, Patrick UL

in JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY (2006), 13(7), 1021-1038

This paper confronts two models of policy: the party model states that policy-making is an orderly process initiated by parties implementing their party programme and carrying out their electoral promises ... [more ▼]

This paper confronts two models of policy: the party model states that policy-making is an orderly process initiated by parties implementing their party programme and carrying out their electoral promises; the external pressure model contends that policy change is a non-orderly process but rather a disjoint process coming in large bursts that are difficult to predict. Drawing upon eight policy agendas in Belgium covering the period from 1991 to 2000 we put both models to the test. Policy measures are operationalized via the budget and legislation. We found that budgets are as good as disconnected from any other policy agenda in Belgium. Legislation and the evolving legislative attention for issues in Belgium can be traced back to some extent to parties and external pressure at the same time. In terms of static policy priorities, we found that the party model indicators, party programmes and government agreements, are fairly good predictors of the lefislative attention an issue will receive during the governmental term. Regarding dynamic policy change from year to year, we found that the external pressure indicators parliamentary pressure, media coverage and street protest - performed much better and were able to grasp some variance in issue emphasis in legislation. [less ▲]

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See detailParty system(s) and electoral behaviour in Belgium: From stability to balkanisation
De Winter, Lieven; Swyngedouw, Marc; Dumont, Patrick UL

in WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS (2006), 29(5), 933-956

Belgium has one of the most fragmented party systems of any modern democracy. This article asks the following questions: is party fragmentation linked to the importance of the ethno-regionalist vote or to ... [more ▼]

Belgium has one of the most fragmented party systems of any modern democracy. This article asks the following questions: is party fragmentation linked to the importance of the ethno-regionalist vote or to the rules of the electoral system? Has party fragmentation also produced centrifugal or polarised multipartyism (between the regions, but also within Flanders, given the spectacular rise of the Vlaams Blok)? What explains the difference in party fragmentation between Flanders and Wallonia? What are the dimensions of party competition in each community and what are the socio-demographic and attitudinal characteristics of the different electorates? Which steps have the political elites taken to cope with the increasing fragmentation of the party landscape and growing voter volatility? To what extent has the increasing divergence between the regional party systems led to the building of asymmetrical coalitions at the federal and regional levels of government? The splitting of the Belgian party system into two, albeit still fragmented, party systems has further complicated the problems of coordination within a polarised, multicleavage and multilevel system that seriously undermines the stability of the entire political system. [less ▲]

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See detailWhy so few, and why so late? Green parties and the question of governmental participation
Dumont, Patrick UL; Bäck, Hanna

in European Journal of Political Research (2006), 45

Green parties have been represented in the parliaments of European Union countries since 1981, but it was not until recently that a few have entered national governments. Using a data set comprised of 51 ... [more ▼]

Green parties have been represented in the parliaments of European Union countries since 1981, but it was not until recently that a few have entered national governments. Using a data set comprised of 51 government formation opportunities (where the Greens were represented in parliament), the authors of this article show that the parties involved in these bargaining situations are more office-oriented than earlier studies had found. As Green parties are seen to be less office-seeking than other parties, this general tendency for office-seeking behaviour in government formation may partly account for the scarcity of Greens in government. Furthermore, a number of hypotheses derived from theories that account for the specific nature of Green parties in terms of their office-, policy- and vote-seeking orientations are tested. It is found that Greens participate in government when they have lost votes in at least one election, when the main party of the left identifies them as a clear electoral threat and when the policy distance between the Greens and either the formateur party or the main left party is small (the latter condition must be accompanied by a substantial proportion of seats for the Green party in parliament). As most of these simultaneous conditions only materialized recently, and in a few countries, it is argued that this analysis, which is the first comparative and multivariate test focused on this question, explains the scarcity and the delay of Green governmental participation. [less ▲]

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See detailDo Belgian parties undermine the democratic chain of delegation?
De Winter, Lieven; Dumont, Patrick UL

in WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS (2006), 29(5), 957-976

The Belgian party-archy violates the ideal-type chain of parliamentary delegation in many ways, insofar as political parties play a predominant role at each stage. They channel the delegation of power ... [more ▼]

The Belgian party-archy violates the ideal-type chain of parliamentary delegation in many ways, insofar as political parties play a predominant role at each stage. They channel the delegation of power from voters to MPs, from Parliament to the cabinet, from the collective cabinet to individual ministers, and from ministers to their civil servants. Hence, they can be considered the effective principals in the polity, and many actors of the parliamentary chain of delegation, such as MPs, ministers, and civil servants have been reduced to mere party agents. The extreme fragmentation of the Belgian party system in combination with its increasing need for multilevel coordination have further enhanced the position of political parties in the Belgian polity. Yet, at the same time (since the early 1990s), Belgium has also witnessed a gradual decline in the informal system of partitocratic delegation and clientelistic excesses, thereby giving back part of their autonomy to some formal agents, such as the cabinet, top civil servants and some MPs. Still, one can wonder whether these corrections are sufficient to counter the strong outburst of public dissatisfaction with the way parties have run the country in past decades. [less ▲]

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See detailParteiensystem, politische Parteien und Wahlen
Dumont, Patrick UL; Fehlen, Fernand UL; Poirier, Philippe UL

in Lorig, Wolfgang (Ed.) Das politische System Luxemburgs (2006)

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