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See detailPopulation aging, demographic trends and consequences for long-term care
Leist, Anja UL

in Boll, Thomas; Ferring, Dieter; Valsiner, Jaan (Eds.) Cultures of care in aging (2018)

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing ... [more ▼]

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing on the developments in Europe but mentioning worldwide trends where possible. First, I present demographic trends in changing age structure of populations, expected costs of those changes, and discuss how innovative measures such as the ‘real elderly dependency ratio’ could offer a more balanced view on those trends. Second, projections of healthy life expectancy and time spent with morbidity and disability are presented. Then possible limitations of those projections are discussed, especially regarding recent evidence on changing incidence of dementia, and the possible further reductions in incidence if unfavorable lifestyle and health behaviours were reduced. After that, I will delineate demographic trends in need for assistance with care, and their implications for both formal and informal long-term care provision and costs. Specifically, a ‘care gap’ both in the provision of formal and informal care has been foreseen for several countries. Lastly, I discuss some trends and phenomena in long-term care provision which may influence the trends in long-term care needs and provision. In particular, estimated care gaps could become less threatening if the trend of migration of trained and untrained caregivers to provide live-in and institutional care in understaffed countries will continue, and if technological innovations will reduce care needs by enabling persons with disabilities to carry out activities of daily living autonomously. [less ▲]

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See detailDynamics of Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Palmisano, Flaviana

E-print/Working paper (2017)

This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions ... [more ▼]

This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions, this paper proposes a framework that is based on individuals’ relative positions in the distribution, and is neutral in relation to structural changes that occur in the economy. Applying this approach to investigate rank volatility in Germany and the US over three decades, we show that while poorer individuals within both countries are the most volatile, the volatility trend for the middle class in each of these countries differs. [less ▲]

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See detailIncreases in well-being in the transition to retirement for unemployed. Catching up with formerly employed persons
Ponomarenko, Valentina; Leist, Anja UL; Chauvel, Louis UL

in Ageing & Society (2017), online

This paper examines the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement depending on transitioning from being employed, unemployed, or economically inactive. Whereas transitioning ... [more ▼]

This paper examines the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement depending on transitioning from being employed, unemployed, or economically inactive. Whereas transitioning from employment to unemployment has been found to cause a decrease of subjective well-being with more time spent in unemployment, it is not clear how transitioning from unemployment to retirement affects well-being levels. We use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to monitor life satisfaction of respondents who retire in between two waves. We portray well-being scores before and after retirement and then identify the change in life satisfaction during the retirement transition using a First Difference model. Results indicate that being unemployed before retirement is associated with an increase in life satisfaction, but presents mainly a catching-up effect compared to employed persons transitioning to retirement. Retirement from labour market inactivity does not lead to significant changes in well-being. Findings are robust to selection into unemployment and country differences. As well-being of unemployed persons recovers after transitioning to retirement, especially the currently unemployed population should be supported to prevent detrimental consequences of economically unfavourable conditions and lower well-being. [less ▲]

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See detailDetecting the "Big Red Spot" of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: Age-period-cohort residual analysis
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

in PAA Server (2017, April 28)

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide ... [more ▼]

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide a new age-period-cohort based methodology, combining information from age-period (AP) and APC-Detrended (APCD) analyses to detect all-cause mortality increases. Plotting the resulting AP coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can easily be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. Additionally, we detect abnormalities as interactions of age and period (‘big red spots’). We then investigate the ‘red spots’ of mortality of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries and the U.S. to delineate their simultaneously occurring public health crises. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data show that mortality increases are mostly due to increased HIV/AIDS mortality. We discuss possible applications of the new method. [less ▲]

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See detailSocial inequalities in dementia care, cure, and research
Leist, Anja UL

in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (2017)

Social inequalities in dementia can be found in diagnosis, cure, care, and research. Less advantaged groups are women, persons with ethnic minority status, lower income, lower education, and living in ... [more ▼]

Social inequalities in dementia can be found in diagnosis, cure, care, and research. Less advantaged groups are women, persons with ethnic minority status, lower income, lower education, and living in more deprived or rural areas. These social inequalities suggest that funding of research and medical and care expenses related to dementia may not be equitably allocated to those in need, even in the most advanced countries. Experience from the field of heart disease gives an estimate on the timescale and efforts it takes to successfully address social inequalities related to gender. Strong concerted efforts will be needed to mitigate social inequalities in dementia. [less ▲]

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See detailScarring effects across the life course and the transition to retirement
Ponomarenko, Valentina UL

Doctoral thesis (2017)

This thesis investigates the long-term negative effects of unemployment, labour market inactivity and atypical employment. Within the theoretical framework of cumulative advantages and disadvantages, it ... [more ▼]

This thesis investigates the long-term negative effects of unemployment, labour market inactivity and atypical employment. Within the theoretical framework of cumulative advantages and disadvantages, it is outlined how life-course differentiation creates gaps between age peers and cohorts and how this leads to social inequality in old age. In the three separate, but linked studies, disadvantages across the career and their associations to retirement are analysed. The focus of the analyses is laid on the outcomes of career disadvantages in form of subjective and financial well-being. The three studies all use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. This large and multidimensional panel study provides not only prospective, but also retrospective data on European countries. The data base is employed in different combinations in the studies. In the first and second study, the retrospective wave SHARELIFE provides information on employment biography and is related to well-being indicators of the regular waves. In the third study, the persistence of disadvantages upon retirement is observed with a causal model. The first study investigates how disadvantages are affecting careers and subjective well-being of older Europeans. In two complementary analyses, first the employment history of older Europeans is studied with sequence analysis methods to show how non-employment and part-time work shape careers and to illustrate gender differences. In a second step, indicators of timing and duration, exemplifying the accumulation mechanisms, are related to subjective well-being in old age. The results indicate that women experience more turbulent careers with more periods of non-employment and part-time employment. However, this is not reflected in lower subjective well-being in old age. Accumulation of non-employment disadvantages is far more comprehensive for men than for women. Part-time employment has an ambiguous effect for women, but is not relevant for men. In the second study, the household level is added and it is analysed how an adverse employment history is related to wealth accumulation. The results show that cumulative non-employment and employment in lower occupations has significant disadvantages for wealth accumulation in old age. However, large differences for men and women remain. Particularly, the household composition and household factors are decisive in the effectuality of these disadvantages. The third study includes the scarring question, that means if career disadvantages continue beyond the working life. The study examines whether non-employment disadvantages are still found in retirement and the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement. Well-being scores before and after retirement are obtained and unbiased effects of the retirement transition are identified. Results indicate that being unemployed before retirement is associated with an increase in life satisfaction, but presents mainly a catching-up effect compared to employed persons transitioning to retirement. Findings are robust to selection into unemployment and country differences. [less ▲]

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See detailA Prey-Predator Model of Trade Union Density and Inequality in 12 Advanced Capitalisms over Long Periods
Chauvel, Louis UL; Schröder, Martin UL

in Kyklos : internationale Zeitschrift für Sozialwissenschaften (2017), 70(1), 3-26

This article shows empirically how trade union membership and income inequality are mutually related in twelve countries over more than 100 years. While past research has shown that high income inequality ... [more ▼]

This article shows empirically how trade union membership and income inequality are mutually related in twelve countries over more than 100 years. While past research has shown that high income inequality occurs alongside low trade union membership, we show that past income inequality actually increases trade union membership with a time lag, as trade unions recruit more members after inequality has been high. But we also show that strengthened trade unions then fight inequality, thereby destroying what helped them to recruit new members in the past. As trade union density decreases, inequality increases and eventually re-incentivises workers to join unions again. By showing this empirically, we reconceptualise the relationship between inequality and union density as a Lotka-Volterra prey and predator model, where predators eat prey – unions destroy inequality, but thereby also destroy their own basis for survival. By empirically showing that trade union density and social inequality influence each other in this way over long periods, this article contributes to a dynamic approach on how social problems and social movements interact. [less ▲]

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See detailClosing or Persisting Gender Gap? A Cohort Analysis of Education and Wages in the United States and Europe
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal UL

in Population Association of America - PAA Annual Meeting 2017 (2017)

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See detailAPCGO: Stata module to calculate age-period-cohort effects for the gap between two groups (based on a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition), including trends for each parameter
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal UL

Computer development (2017)

The apcgo program calculates the blinder-oaxaca decomposition for each periodXage group context and estimates age-period-cohort APC-T (trended) models for the explained and unexplained gap. It provides ... [more ▼]

The apcgo program calculates the blinder-oaxaca decomposition for each periodXage group context and estimates age-period-cohort APC-T (trended) models for the explained and unexplained gap. It provides trended parameters of age, period and cohort effects (The trend in age is set to be the average effect of ageing of cohorts observed in the window of observation); appropriate constraints offer a unique solution and solve the traditional APC identification problem. The user provides a dependent variable, a binary group variable (gap), age and period, and controls from a microdata series of crossectional surveys. [less ▲]

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See detailSociétés francophones dans le monde de 2050 : Une génération de développement humain soutenable
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal UL et al

Report (2017)

Ce rapport est consacré à une question cruciale pour la Francophonie : le développement démographique, socioéconomique et humain comparé à l’horizon 2050 des sociétés francophones – ces pays membres ou ... [more ▼]

Ce rapport est consacré à une question cruciale pour la Francophonie : le développement démographique, socioéconomique et humain comparé à l’horizon 2050 des sociétés francophones – ces pays membres ou non de l’APF où la langue française joue un rôle important dans l’échange d’idées au quotidien. Il s’agit ici tout à la fois d’un bilan de ce développement depuis 1980 et d’une prospective à l’horizon de 2050. Nous soulignons le renouveau mondial de la francophonie au cours du XXIe siècle, en particulier dans le contexte de sociétés multilingues. Après des décennies de stagnation en proportion de la population mondiale, les pays francophones et la francophonie pourraient émerger comme troisième ère linguistique après l’Anglais et le Chinois, avec une présence sur l’ensemble des continents. Au travers d’un bilan dynamique des sociétés francophones, un ensemble de défis sont mis en évidence : la comparaison met en lumière les risques démographiques, de surpopulation, de pauvreté extrême, de gradient de développement humain (éducation, santé, égalité entre femmes et hommes, etc.). La génération qui vient pourrait voir une amplification des difficultés si nous suivons le scénario central de la prospective. Un autre scénario, optimiste, permet d’envisager une meilleure croissance des pays les plus pauvres, une marche vers l’égalisation du développement humain, un redéveloppement harmonieux, en promouvant la richesse humaine des pays en développement. C’est le message du philosophe Hans Jonas : en nous conformant au devoir d’améliorer le sort des générations suivantes, en investissant en elle, nous nous enrichirons ensemble. Sur cette voie, la pratique d’une francophonie multilingue – où le français est une langue officielle parmi d’autres – semble offrir aux pays qui la connaissent un surcroît de ressources de développement, en accroissant les canaux de la communication en interne et avec les autres pays. [less ▲]

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See detailHousehold Nonemployment, Social Risks and Inequality in Europe
Hubl, Vanessa Julia UL

Doctoral thesis (2016)

The dissertation explores interactions between households, states and markets and their relation to socio-economic inequalities among working-age households. The focus lies on three aspects: the ... [more ▼]

The dissertation explores interactions between households, states and markets and their relation to socio-economic inequalities among working-age households. The focus lies on three aspects: the importance of the welfare state, economic risks and opportunities within households, and the link between these two aspects and broader patterns of inequality at the societal level. These are analysed in three empirical studies, using a range of statistical methods (multilevel analysis, event history models and counterfactual analyses of income distributions). In addition, an extensive framework paper provides a background to the analyses, clarifies their relation in theoretical terms, and discusses the results. The first empirical study explores the relation between the regulation of social benefits, social risks, and household nonemployment in 20 European countries using internationally comparative institutional and survey data. The study reveals that eligibility conditions and activation policy vary systematically with the effect of social risks on the probability of household nonemployment. The strength and direction of influence depends on the specific policy area and risk factor. The second study analyses the duration of household nonemployment for British and German couples from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. Dual joblessness has become longer over time, which is related to changes in the household composition of nonemployed couples. The third analysis evaluates the consequences of welfare shifts between households on changing patterns of inequality between 2005 and 2010. Changes in the distribution of household employment, benefit transfers, and family types in Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Spain are analysed in terms of their contribution to developments in income inequality between households. The analysis of income distributions suggests that changes in socio-demographic and economic household characteristics in a population can have a substantial impact on different income groups. The overarching conclusion of the dissertation is that certain aspects of household composition enhance the risk of lower economic activity and welfare but that the impact of these factors varies strongly according to the broader context the households are situated in. Social policies that have the potential to reduce inequalities between households need to consider possible adverse effects on economic risk structures and spill-over effects to other areas of social protection. Future research should continue studying the household’s role in relation to the market, the state, and individual needs and resources; incorporate additional economic and welfare regime aspects into the analyses; and explore further statistical tools to do so. [less ▲]

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See detailLe malaise des classes moyennes représente une menace pour la démocratie
Chauvel, Louis UL

Article for general public (2016)

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See detailLa Spirale du déclassement. Essai sur la société des illusions
Chauvel, Louis UL

Book published by Seuil (2016)

Notre civilisation de classe moyenne est à la croisée des chemins. Alors qu'elle définissait le projet des démocraties modernes, elle fait face à des défis majeurs. La recristallisation en masse des ... [more ▼]

Notre civilisation de classe moyenne est à la croisée des chemins. Alors qu'elle définissait le projet des démocraties modernes, elle fait face à des défis majeurs. La recristallisation en masse des inégalités, la mobilité descendante, l'écrasement du pouvoir d'achat des salaires relativement aux prix des biens immobiliers, la paupérisation de cohortes entières de jeunes surdiplômés et la globalisation porteuse d'une montée aux extrêmes de la concurrence forment ensemble une spirale de déclassement aux effets potentiellement dévastateurs. Les inégalités de classes et la fracture des générations se renforcent mutuellement : à raison de la dynamique de repatrimonialisation, les écarts au sein des nouvelles générations sont appelés à se radicaliser. Ce sont autant de phénomènes dissimulés sous le voile du déni, qui risquent de réduire à néant l'ambition de laisser à nos enfants un monde meilleur. À partir de données et de comparaisons internationales inédites, Louis Chauvel récuse ici les illusions qui aggravent nos maux. Car les dénégations qu'on oppose aux difficultés réelles des classes moyennes et populaires, des jeunes et de pans entiers de la société ne font qu'aiguiser les frustrations et un ressentiment général dont la traduction politique s'exacerbe. [less ▲]

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See detailTesting persistence of cohort effects in the epidemiology of suicide: an age-period-cohort hysteresis model
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Ponomarenko, Valentina UL

in PLoS ONE (2016)

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD ... [more ▼]

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrended’ fluctuations) in suicide rates. The new APC-Hysteresis (APCH) model tests temporal stability of cohort effects. Analysing suicide rates in 25 WHO countries (periods 1970–74 to 2005–09; ages 20–24 to 70–79) with the APCD method, we find that country-specific birth cohort membership plays an important role in suicide rates. Among 25 countries, we detect 12 nations that show deep contrasts among cohort-specific suicide rates including Italy, Australia and the United States. The APCH method shows that cohort fluctuations are not stable across the life course but decline in Spain, France and Australia, whereas they remain stable in Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. We discuss the Spanish case with elevated suicide mortality of cohorts born 1965-1975 which declines with age, and the opposite case of the United States, where the identified cohort effects of those born around 1960 increase smoothly, but statistically significant across the life course. [less ▲]

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See detailIntroduction to the Special Issue on Ageing and Well-being
Isopahkala-Bouret, Ulpukka; Leist, Anja UL

in Social Inquiry into Well-Being (2016), 2(1), 1-3

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See detailThe World Young Leaders in Dementia Network - Goals and Activities
Leist, Anja UL

Speeches/Talks (2016)

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