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See detailPopulation aging, demographic trends and consequences for long-term care
Leist, Anja UL

in Boll, Thomas; Ferring, Dieter; Valsiner, Jaan (Eds.) Cultures of care in aging (in press)

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing ... [more ▼]

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing on the developments in Europe but mentioning worldwide trends where possible. First, I present demographic trends in changing age structure of populations, expected costs of those changes, and discuss how innovative measures such as the ‘real elderly dependency ratio’ could offer a more balanced view on those trends. Second, projections of healthy life expectancy and time spent with morbidity and disability are presented. Then possible limitations of those projections are discussed, especially regarding recent evidence on changing incidence of dementia, and the possible further reductions in incidence if unfavorable lifestyle and health behaviours were reduced. After that, I will delineate demographic trends in need for assistance with care, and their implications for both formal and informal long-term care provision and costs. Specifically, a ‘care gap’ both in the provision of formal and informal care has been foreseen for several countries. Lastly, I discuss some trends and phenomena in long-term care provision which may influence the trends in long-term care needs and provision. In particular, estimated care gaps could become less threatening if the trend of migration of trained and untrained caregivers to provide live-in and institutional care in understaffed countries will continue, and if technological innovations will reduce care needs by enabling persons with disabilities to carry out activities of daily living autonomously. [less ▲]

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See detailLe malaise des classes moyennes représente une menace pour la démocratie
Chauvel, Louis UL

Article for general public (2016)

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See detailTesting persistence of cohort effects in the epidemiology of suicide: an age-period-cohort hysteresis model
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Ponomarenko, Valentina UL

in PLoS ONE (2016)

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD ... [more ▼]

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrended’ fluctuations) in suicide rates. The new APC-Hysteresis (APCH) model tests temporal stability of cohort effects. Analysing suicide rates in 25 WHO countries (periods 1970–74 to 2005–09; ages 20–24 to 70–79) with the APCD method, we find that country-specific birth cohort membership plays an important role in suicide rates. Among 25 countries, we detect 12 nations that show deep contrasts among cohort-specific suicide rates including Italy, Australia and the United States. The APCH method shows that cohort fluctuations are not stable across the life course but decline in Spain, France and Australia, whereas they remain stable in Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. We discuss the Spanish case with elevated suicide mortality of cohorts born 1965-1975 which declines with age, and the opposite case of the United States, where the identified cohort effects of those born around 1960 increase smoothly, but statistically significant across the life course. [less ▲]

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See detailIntroduction to the Special Issue on Ageing and Well-being
Isopahkala-Bouret, Ulpukka; Leist, Anja UL

in Social Inquiry into Well-Being (2016), 2(1), 1-3

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See detailThe World Young Leaders in Dementia Network - Goals and Activities
Leist, Anja UL

Speeches/Talks (2016)

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See detailThe Intensity and Shape of Inequality: The ABG Method of Distributional Analysis
Chauvel, Louis UL

in Review of Income and Wealth (2016), 62(1), 5268

Inequality is anisotropic: its intensity varies by income level. We here develop a new tool, the isograph, to focus on local inequality and illustrate these variations. This method yields three ... [more ▼]

Inequality is anisotropic: its intensity varies by income level. We here develop a new tool, the isograph, to focus on local inequality and illustrate these variations. This method yields three coefficients which summarize the shape of inequality: a main coefficient, Alpha, which measures inequality at the median, and two correction coefficients, Beta and Gamma, which pick up any differential curvature at the top and bottom of the distribution. The analysis of a set of 232 microdata samples from 41 different countries in the LIS datacenter archive allows us to provide a systematic overview of the properties of the ABG (Alpha Beta Gamma) coefficients, which are compared both to a set of standard indices (Atkinson indices, generalized entropy, Wolfson polarization, etc.) and the GB2 distribution. This method also provides a smoothing tool that reveals the differences in the shape of distributions (the strobiloid) and how these have changed over time. [less ▲]

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See detailTackling the global challenge of dementia
Leist, Anja UL

Speeches/Talks (2016)

The talk gives an overview of the current activities of the World Young Leaders in Dementia and the newly formed World Dementia Council, along with recent findings in research on dementia (1) from a ... [more ▼]

The talk gives an overview of the current activities of the World Young Leaders in Dementia and the newly formed World Dementia Council, along with recent findings in research on dementia (1) from a social epidemiological and life course perspective, (2) with regard to societal and economic costs of dementia, and (3) with regard to delaying onset and progression of dementia. [less ▲]

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See detailMalaise in the Western Middle Classes
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL

E-print/Working paper (2016)

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See detailInequality in old age cognition across the world
Olivera, Javier; Leist, Anja UL; Chauvel, Louis UL

in PAA website (2016)

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See detailClosing or Persisting Gender Gap? A Cohort Analysis of Education and Wages in the US and Europe
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal

Scientific Conference (2016)

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See detailMalaise in the Western Middle Classes
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL

in UNESCO (Ed.) World Social Science Report 2016. Challenging Inequalities: Pathways to a Just World (2016)

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See detailJeunes générations, inégalités et problèmes sociaux : chômeurs, décrocheurs, Neets, au Luxembourg et chez nos voisins
Chauvel, Louis UL

in Georges, Nathalie; Schronen, Danielle; Urbé, Robert (Eds.) Sozialalmanach Inegalitéiten 2016 (2016)

The international debate on NEETS differs from Luxembourguish realities: the problem associated with unemployment or downward mobile youth as it is described in Japan, Australia or France has no perfect ... [more ▼]

The international debate on NEETS differs from Luxembourguish realities: the problem associated with unemployment or downward mobile youth as it is described in Japan, Australia or France has no perfect equivalent in Luxembourg, where the main problem of youth integration is housing shortage and increasing difficulties to gain autonomy, issues that are exacerbated for the children of immigrants. [less ▲]

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See detailDynamics of income rank volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Palmisano, Flaviana

in SOEP2016 Book of Abstracts (2016)

This paper provides a methodology to compare profiles of income rank volatility over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in the marginal ... [more ▼]

This paper provides a methodology to compare profiles of income rank volatility over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in the marginal distributions, this paper proposes a framework that based on individuals’ relative position in the distribution results to be neutral to the structural changes that occur in the economy. Applying this approach to investigate rank volatility in Germany and the US over three decades, we show that while poorer individuals are the most volatile in both countries, the volatility trend of the middle class marks the difference between these two countries. [less ▲]

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See detailIs income equality also better for your cognitive health? A multilevel analysis on trajectories of cognitive function at older ages
Leist, Anja UL; Chauvel, Louis UL

in PAA website (2016)

This paper contributes to research on contextual associations with older-age cognitive function by investigating to which extent country-level income inequality is associated with older-age cognitive ... [more ▼]

This paper contributes to research on contextual associations with older-age cognitive function by investigating to which extent country-level income inequality is associated with older-age cognitive function and decline. Data came from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), providing information on cognitive function (fluency, immediate and delayed recall) of respondents aged 50-80 years coming from a total of 16 European countries that participated in at least two waves of SHARE. A total of 44,303 observations were available at first and second measurement, 13,509 observations at third measurement, and 9,736 observations at fourth measurement. Three-level hierarchical models (measurements nested within individuals nested within countries) were run, showing that income inequality was negatively associated with cognitive level but not with decline. The findings suggest that income inequality is not associated with cognitive trajectories. Mechanisms of maintaining cognitive function at older ages may not be susceptible to country-level income inequalities. [less ▲]

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See detailCohort factors impinging on suicide rates in the United States, 1990-2010
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

in PAA server (2016)

We use CDC microdata on cause of death and CPS data on populations by age to create suicide rates for five-year age groups at five-year intervals, further cross-classified by race/ethnicity, education ... [more ▼]

We use CDC microdata on cause of death and CPS data on populations by age to create suicide rates for five-year age groups at five-year intervals, further cross-classified by race/ethnicity, education, and marital status. We examine the suicide history 1990-2010 of U.S. birth cohorts, net of age and cohort linear trends. These de-trended cohort deviations follow familiar patterns: most pronounced in the Baby Boom, least pronounced during the Baby Bust, they illustrate the so-called Easterlin effect. Suicide rates for women show similar patterns as suicide patterns for men. We show persistence of those effects net of micro factors (especially education and marriage) implicated in suicide behavior and correlated at the macro level with relative cohort size. Analysis of suicide patterns over time for high- and low-educated men and women shows that white men with low education face a sharp increase, significantly above the linear time trends, in suicide rates among cohorts born between 1955 and 1970. This bump is mostly unrelated to secular trends of increasing average educational attainment rates, at least if no interaction between age and cohort is involved in the explanation. No obvious pattern related to cohort size is found for African-American high- and low-educated men, which makes sense given the very different historical dynamics for this minority sub-population. [less ▲]

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See detailCognitive inequalities in later life: Cross-country differences in the education-cognition gradient
Leist, Anja UL

in Gerontologist (2016), 56(S3), 428-429

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