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See detailGlobal inequalities 1980-2050: a microdata oriented simulation – Worldsim
Chauvel, Louis UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal UL; Hartung, Anne UL et al

Scientific Conference (2018, July 13)

Former global inequality models lack realistic features of the population (age, gender, education, behavior). Worldsim develops a panel sample based simulation of the world population until 2050, relying ... [more ▼]

Former global inequality models lack realistic features of the population (age, gender, education, behavior). Worldsim develops a panel sample based simulation of the world population until 2050, relying on UN, Cepii, etc, big data aggregated forecasts, that we individually disaggregate. The simulation confirms the decline of the world's Gini index, but underlines several paradoxes in the socioecodemography of the world, with increasing gaps between resources and needs. Compared to more standard socioeconomic simulations of inequalities, we provide more substantial characterization of the population, and compared to other global simulations, we capture the dimensions of social divergences between social groups and geographic regions. [less ▲]

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See detailInequality and generations - Age-Period-Cohort Modelling
Hartung, Anne UL; Bar-Haim, Eyal UL; Chauvel, Louis UL

Presentation (2018, July)

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Peer Reviewed
See detailDetecting Public Health crises: APC-Detrended methodology and residuals in a 25-country, 35-year mortality matrix
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

Scientific Conference (2018, June 09)

Background. Mortality-by-cause analyses as done in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 update are helpful to monitor progress of public health improvements within and across countries. However, separate ... [more ▼]

Background. Mortality-by-cause analyses as done in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 update are helpful to monitor progress of public health improvements within and across countries. However, separate analyses by cause and country miss larger patterns of public health crises that are restricted to certain cohorts and periods. Those public health crises may go unnoticed even if they affect several countries and thus come with some threat potential. We propose a new method to detect cohorts with increased mortality at certain ages and periods. Method. We develop an analytical and visualizing technique based on established Age-Period-Cohort-Detrended (APCD) methodology (Chauvel and Schröder 2014). After detecting all-cause mortality increases, plotting the resulting age-period coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. Age-period interactions are plotted as ‘big red spots’. We employ the new technique in data from the Human Mortality Database, spanning 25-60 years of age, calendar years 1975-2010, and 25 countries. Results. We detect age-period interactions of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries and the U.S. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data show that mortality increases are mostly due to increased HIV/AIDS mortality. Discussion. Country-specific explanations, such as political frustrations in Spain, have been proposed to explain the 1990s increases in HIV/AIDS mortality. However, the new technique suggests that increases in HIV/AIDS mortality were more likely to be due to specific behaviors of cohorts of certain ages in a certain period. We discuss limitations of the method, such as detecting social class mortality differences of affected cohorts. Altogether, the new technique offers intuitive and efficient handling of large amounts of age-country-year mortality information. The method can further be applied in the fields of education, longevity, and demography at large. [less ▲]

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See detailThe persistence of the gender earnings gap: cohort trends and the role of education in twelve countries
Bar-Haim, Eyal UL; Chauvel, Louis UL; Gornick, Janet et al

in Inequality Matters - LIS newsletter, Issue No. 6 (2018)

Studying twelve countries over 30 years, we examine whether women’s educational expansion has translated into a closing gender earnings gap. As educational attainment is cohort-dependent, an Age-Period ... [more ▼]

Studying twelve countries over 30 years, we examine whether women’s educational expansion has translated into a closing gender earnings gap. As educational attainment is cohort-dependent, an Age-Period-Cohort analysis is most appropriate in our view. Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data, we show that while in terms of attainment of tertiary education women have caught up and often even outperform men, substantial gender differences in earnings persist in all countries. These results are consistent with the composition of the top earnings decile. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition methods, we demonstrate that the role of education in explaining the gender earnings gap has been limited and even decreased over cohorts. Contrary, employment status as well as occupation explain a more substantial part in all countries. We conclude that earnings differences at levels far from gender equality likely also persist in the future, even if the “rise of women” in terms of education continues. [less ▲]

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See detailThe persistence of the gender earnings gap: cohort trends and the role of education in twelve countries
Bar-Haim, Eyal UL; Chauvel, Louis UL; Gornick, Janet et al

in Inequality Matters - LIS newsletter, Issue No. 6 (2018)

Studying twelve countries over 30 years, we examine whether women’s educational expansion has translated into a closing gender earnings gap. As educational attainment is cohort-dependent, an Age-Period ... [more ▼]

Studying twelve countries over 30 years, we examine whether women’s educational expansion has translated into a closing gender earnings gap. As educational attainment is cohort-dependent, an Age-Period-Cohort analysis is most appropriate in our view. Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data, we show that while in terms of attainment of tertiary education women have caught up and often even outperform men, substantial gender differences in earnings persist in all countries. These results are consistent with the composition of the top earnings decile. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition methods, we demonstrate that the role of education in explaining the gender earnings gap has been limited and even decreased over cohorts. Contrary, employment status as well as occupation explain a more substantial part in all countries. We conclude that earnings differences at levels far from gender equality likely also persist in the future, even if the “rise of women” in terms of education continues. [less ▲]

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Peer Reviewed
See detailInequality in old age cognition across the world
Olivera, Javier; Andreoli, Francesco; Leist, Anja UL et al

in Economics and Human Biology (2018), 29

Although cohort and country differences in average cognitive levels are well established, identifying the degree and determinants of inequalities in old age cognitive functioning could guide public health ... [more ▼]

Although cohort and country differences in average cognitive levels are well established, identifying the degree and determinants of inequalities in old age cognitive functioning could guide public health and policymaking efforts. We use all publicly available and representative old age surveys with comparable information to assess inequalities of cognitive functioning in six distinctive age groups of 29 countries. We document that cognitive inequalities in old age are largely determined by earlier educational inequalities as well as gender differential survival rates. For example, a one percentage point increase in the Gini index of past education is associated with an increase of 0.45 percentage points in the Gini index of delayed recall and 0.23 percentage points in the Gini of immediate recall. Results are robust to a variety of alternative explanations and persist even after controlling for gender-related biases in survival rates. Furthermore, we find evidence that unequal opportunities for education -captured by differences in parental background and gender- also have significant effects on inequality of old age cognition. [less ▲]

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See detailMore Necessary and Less Sufficient: An Age-Period-Cohort Approach to Overeducation in Comparative Perspective
Bar-Haim, Eyal UL; Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL

E-print/Working paper (2018)

In many countries, the skilled labor market has lagged behind educational expansion. As a result of increased competition, younger cohorts of the highly educated face decreasing returns to education or ... [more ▼]

In many countries, the skilled labor market has lagged behind educational expansion. As a result of increased competition, younger cohorts of the highly educated face decreasing returns to education or overeducation. Surprisingly, decreasing occupational outcomes do not coincide empirically with the economic returns among those with tertiary education. Regarding the process of changes in economic returns to education based on cohort transformations, we expect that the expansion of tertiary education affects specific cohorts, which find themselves facing more labor market competition. As a result, the economic returns to education should decrease over cohorts even though they remain stable and even increase during the same period. To study this process, we model economic returns with a new Age-Period- Cohort-Trended-Lag (APCTLAG) method, which allows comparing the gap in economic returns between tertiary and less than tertiary education over cohorts. Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), we analyze trends over three decades in 12 countries. Our results confirm that educational returns for tertiary education have declined over time, even though the gap between the educated and the less educated has remained similar in most of the countries. For younger cohorts, tertiary education has become more necessary to survive in the competitive labor market, but the actual economic returns to it have decreased - making tertiary education less sufficient than before. [less ▲]

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Peer Reviewed
See detailPopulation aging, demographic trends and consequences for long-term care
Leist, Anja UL

in Boll, Thomas; Ferring, Dieter; Valsiner, Jaan (Eds.) Cultures of care in aging (2018)

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing ... [more ▼]

This chapter reviews recent projections related to the aging of populations, developments in health expectancy and disability, and associated trends in need for and provision of long-term care, focusing on the developments in Europe but mentioning worldwide trends where possible. First, I present demographic trends in changing age structure of populations, expected costs of those changes, and discuss how innovative measures such as the ‘real elderly dependency ratio’ could offer a more balanced view on those trends. Second, projections of healthy life expectancy and time spent with morbidity and disability are presented. Then possible limitations of those projections are discussed, especially regarding recent evidence on changing incidence of dementia, and the possible further reductions in incidence if unfavorable lifestyle and health behaviours were reduced. After that, I will delineate demographic trends in need for assistance with care, and their implications for both formal and informal long-term care provision and costs. Specifically, a ‘care gap’ both in the provision of formal and informal care has been foreseen for several countries. Lastly, I discuss some trends and phenomena in long-term care provision which may influence the trends in long-term care needs and provision. In particular, estimated care gaps could become less threatening if the trend of migration of trained and untrained caregivers to provide live-in and institutional care in understaffed countries will continue, and if technological innovations will reduce care needs by enabling persons with disabilities to carry out activities of daily living autonomously. [less ▲]

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See detailDigital Inequalities in the Use of Self-Tracking Diet and Fitness Apps: Interview Study on the Influence of Social, Economic, and Cultural Factors
Régnier, Faustine; Chauvel, Louis UL

in JMIR mHealth and uHealth (2018), 6(4), 1-13

Background: Digital devices are driving economic and social transformations, but assessing the uses, perceptions, and impact of these new technologies on diet and physical activity remains a major ... [more ▼]

Background: Digital devices are driving economic and social transformations, but assessing the uses, perceptions, and impact of these new technologies on diet and physical activity remains a major societal challenge. Objective: We aimed to determine under which social, economic, and cultural conditions individuals in France were more likely to be actively invested in the use of self-tracking diet and fitness apps for better health behaviors. Methods: Existing users of 3 diet and fitness self-tracking apps (Weight Watchers, MyFitnessPal, and sport apps) were recruited from 3 regions of France. We interviewed 79 individuals (Weight Watchers, n=37; MyFitnessPal, n=20; sport apps, n=22). In-depth semistructured interviews were conducted with each participant, using open-ended questions about their use of diet and fitness apps. A triangulation of methods (content, textual, and quantitative analyses) was performed. Results: We found 3 clusters of interviewees who differed by social background and curative goal linked to use under constraint versus preventive goal linked to chosen use, and intensity of their self-quantification efforts and participation in social networks. Interviewees used the apps for a diversity of uses, including measurement, tracking, quantification, and participation in digital communities. A digital divide was highlighted, comprising a major social gap. Social conditions for appropriation of self-tracking devices included sociodemographic factors, life course stages, and cross-cutting factors of heterogeneity. Conclusions: Individuals from affluent or intermediate social milieus were most likely to use the apps and to participate in the associated online social networks. These interviewees also demonstrated a preventive approach to a healthy lifestyle. Individuals from lower milieus were more reluctant to use digital devices relating to diet and physical activity or to participate in self-quantification. The results of the study have major implications for public health: the digital self-quantification device is intrinsically less important than the way the individual uses it, in terms of adoption of successful health behaviors. [less ▲]

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Peer Reviewed
See detailThe role of nutrition and literacy on the cognitive functioning of elderly poor individuals
Leist, Anja UL; Novella, Rafael; Olivera, Javier

in Journal of Aging & Social Policy (2018)

Maintaining cognitive function is a prerequisite of living independently, which is a highly valued component in older individuals’ wellbeing. In this paper we assess the role of early-life and later-life ... [more ▼]

Maintaining cognitive function is a prerequisite of living independently, which is a highly valued component in older individuals’ wellbeing. In this paper we assess the role of early-life and later-life nutritional status, education and literacy on the cognitive functioning of older adults living in poverty in Peru. We exploit the baseline sample of the Peruvian non-contributory pension program Pension 65 and find that current nutritional status and literacy are strongly associated with cognitive functioning for poor older adults. In a context of rising popularity of non-contributory pension programs around the world, our study intends to contribute to the discussion of designing accompanying measures to the pension transfer, such as adult literacy programs and monitoring of adequate nutrition of older adults. [less ▲]

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See detailDynamics of Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US
Chauvel, Louis UL; Hartung, Anne UL; Palmisano, Flaviana

E-print/Working paper (2017)

This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions ... [more ▼]

This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions, this paper proposes a framework that is based on individuals’ relative positions in the distribution, and is neutral in relation to structural changes that occur in the economy. Applying this approach to investigate rank volatility in Germany and the US over three decades, we show that while poorer individuals within both countries are the most volatile, the volatility trend for the middle class in each of these countries differs. [less ▲]

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See detailIncreases in well-being in the transition to retirement for unemployed. Catching up with formerly employed persons
Ponomarenko, Valentina; Leist, Anja UL; Chauvel, Louis UL

in Ageing & Society (2017), online

This paper examines the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement depending on transitioning from being employed, unemployed, or economically inactive. Whereas transitioning ... [more ▼]

This paper examines the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement depending on transitioning from being employed, unemployed, or economically inactive. Whereas transitioning from employment to unemployment has been found to cause a decrease of subjective well-being with more time spent in unemployment, it is not clear how transitioning from unemployment to retirement affects well-being levels. We use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to monitor life satisfaction of respondents who retire in between two waves. We portray well-being scores before and after retirement and then identify the change in life satisfaction during the retirement transition using a First Difference model. Results indicate that being unemployed before retirement is associated with an increase in life satisfaction, but presents mainly a catching-up effect compared to employed persons transitioning to retirement. Retirement from labour market inactivity does not lead to significant changes in well-being. Findings are robust to selection into unemployment and country differences. As well-being of unemployed persons recovers after transitioning to retirement, especially the currently unemployed population should be supported to prevent detrimental consequences of economically unfavourable conditions and lower well-being. [less ▲]

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See detailDetecting the "Big Red Spot" of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: Age-period-cohort residual analysis
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

in PAA Server (2017, April 28)

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide ... [more ▼]

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide a new age-period-cohort based methodology, combining information from age-period (AP) and APC-Detrended (APCD) analyses to detect all-cause mortality increases. Plotting the resulting AP coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can easily be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. Additionally, we detect abnormalities as interactions of age and period (‘big red spots’). We then investigate the ‘red spots’ of mortality of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries and the U.S. to delineate their simultaneously occurring public health crises. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data show that mortality increases are mostly due to increased HIV/AIDS mortality. We discuss possible applications of the new method. [less ▲]

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See detailSocial inequalities in dementia care, cure, and research
Leist, Anja UL

in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (2017)

Social inequalities in dementia can be found in diagnosis, cure, care, and research. Less advantaged groups are women, persons with ethnic minority status, lower income, lower education, and living in ... [more ▼]

Social inequalities in dementia can be found in diagnosis, cure, care, and research. Less advantaged groups are women, persons with ethnic minority status, lower income, lower education, and living in more deprived or rural areas. These social inequalities suggest that funding of research and medical and care expenses related to dementia may not be equitably allocated to those in need, even in the most advanced countries. Experience from the field of heart disease gives an estimate on the timescale and efforts it takes to successfully address social inequalities related to gender. Strong concerted efforts will be needed to mitigate social inequalities in dementia. [less ▲]

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See detailScarring effects across the life course and the transition to retirement
Ponomarenko, Valentina UL

Doctoral thesis (2017)

This thesis investigates the long-term negative effects of unemployment, labour market inactivity and atypical employment. Within the theoretical framework of cumulative advantages and disadvantages, it ... [more ▼]

This thesis investigates the long-term negative effects of unemployment, labour market inactivity and atypical employment. Within the theoretical framework of cumulative advantages and disadvantages, it is outlined how life-course differentiation creates gaps between age peers and cohorts and how this leads to social inequality in old age. In the three separate, but linked studies, disadvantages across the career and their associations to retirement are analysed. The focus of the analyses is laid on the outcomes of career disadvantages in form of subjective and financial well-being. The three studies all use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. This large and multidimensional panel study provides not only prospective, but also retrospective data on European countries. The data base is employed in different combinations in the studies. In the first and second study, the retrospective wave SHARELIFE provides information on employment biography and is related to well-being indicators of the regular waves. In the third study, the persistence of disadvantages upon retirement is observed with a causal model. The first study investigates how disadvantages are affecting careers and subjective well-being of older Europeans. In two complementary analyses, first the employment history of older Europeans is studied with sequence analysis methods to show how non-employment and part-time work shape careers and to illustrate gender differences. In a second step, indicators of timing and duration, exemplifying the accumulation mechanisms, are related to subjective well-being in old age. The results indicate that women experience more turbulent careers with more periods of non-employment and part-time employment. However, this is not reflected in lower subjective well-being in old age. Accumulation of non-employment disadvantages is far more comprehensive for men than for women. Part-time employment has an ambiguous effect for women, but is not relevant for men. In the second study, the household level is added and it is analysed how an adverse employment history is related to wealth accumulation. The results show that cumulative non-employment and employment in lower occupations has significant disadvantages for wealth accumulation in old age. However, large differences for men and women remain. Particularly, the household composition and household factors are decisive in the effectuality of these disadvantages. The third study includes the scarring question, that means if career disadvantages continue beyond the working life. The study examines whether non-employment disadvantages are still found in retirement and the extent to which well-being levels change in the transition to retirement. Well-being scores before and after retirement are obtained and unbiased effects of the retirement transition are identified. Results indicate that being unemployed before retirement is associated with an increase in life satisfaction, but presents mainly a catching-up effect compared to employed persons transitioning to retirement. Findings are robust to selection into unemployment and country differences. [less ▲]

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See detailA Prey-Predator Model of Trade Union Density and Inequality in 12 Advanced Capitalisms over Long Periods
Chauvel, Louis UL; Schröder, Martin UL

in Kyklos : internationale Zeitschrift für Sozialwissenschaften (2017), 70(1), 3-26

This article shows empirically how trade union membership and income inequality are mutually related in twelve countries over more than 100 years. While past research has shown that high income inequality ... [more ▼]

This article shows empirically how trade union membership and income inequality are mutually related in twelve countries over more than 100 years. While past research has shown that high income inequality occurs alongside low trade union membership, we show that past income inequality actually increases trade union membership with a time lag, as trade unions recruit more members after inequality has been high. But we also show that strengthened trade unions then fight inequality, thereby destroying what helped them to recruit new members in the past. As trade union density decreases, inequality increases and eventually re-incentivises workers to join unions again. By showing this empirically, we reconceptualise the relationship between inequality and union density as a Lotka-Volterra prey and predator model, where predators eat prey – unions destroy inequality, but thereby also destroy their own basis for survival. By empirically showing that trade union density and social inequality influence each other in this way over long periods, this article contributes to a dynamic approach on how social problems and social movements interact. [less ▲]

Detailed reference viewed: 94 (7 UL)