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See detailDetecting Public Health crises: APC-Detrended methodology and residuals in a 25-country, 35-year mortality matrix
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

Scientific Conference (2018, June 09)

Background. Mortality-by-cause analyses as done in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 update are helpful to monitor progress of public health improvements within and across countries. However, separate ... [more ▼]

Background. Mortality-by-cause analyses as done in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 update are helpful to monitor progress of public health improvements within and across countries. However, separate analyses by cause and country miss larger patterns of public health crises that are restricted to certain cohorts and periods. Those public health crises may go unnoticed even if they affect several countries and thus come with some threat potential. We propose a new method to detect cohorts with increased mortality at certain ages and periods. Method. We develop an analytical and visualizing technique based on established Age-Period-Cohort-Detrended (APCD) methodology (Chauvel and Schröder 2014). After detecting all-cause mortality increases, plotting the resulting age-period coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. Age-period interactions are plotted as ‘big red spots’. We employ the new technique in data from the Human Mortality Database, spanning 25-60 years of age, calendar years 1975-2010, and 25 countries. Results. We detect age-period interactions of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries and the U.S. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data show that mortality increases are mostly due to increased HIV/AIDS mortality. Discussion. Country-specific explanations, such as political frustrations in Spain, have been proposed to explain the 1990s increases in HIV/AIDS mortality. However, the new technique suggests that increases in HIV/AIDS mortality were more likely to be due to specific behaviors of cohorts of certain ages in a certain period. We discuss limitations of the method, such as detecting social class mortality differences of affected cohorts. Altogether, the new technique offers intuitive and efficient handling of large amounts of age-country-year mortality information. The method can further be applied in the fields of education, longevity, and demography at large. [less ▲]

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See detailDetecting the "Big Red Spot" of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: Age-period-cohort residual analysis
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

in PAA Server (2017, April 28)

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide ... [more ▼]

In times of wide availability of yearly mortality information of age and period groups all over the world, we lack in tools that detect and graph fine-grained deviations from mortality trends. We provide a new age-period-cohort based methodology, combining information from age-period (AP) and APC-Detrended (APCD) analyses to detect all-cause mortality increases. Plotting the resulting AP coefficients and APCD residuals in equilateral Lexis diagrams, mortality patterns can easily be distinguished as age, period, or cohort trends and fluctuations. Additionally, we detect abnormalities as interactions of age and period (‘big red spots’). We then investigate the ‘red spots’ of mortality of young-adult cohorts in the early 1990s in Spain, other southern European countries and the U.S. to delineate their simultaneously occurring public health crises. Additional analyses with WHO mortality data show that mortality increases are mostly due to increased HIV/AIDS mortality. We discuss possible applications of the new method. [less ▲]

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See detailCohort factors impinging on suicide rates in the United States, 1990-2010
Chauvel, Louis UL; Leist, Anja UL; Smith, Herbert

in PAA server (2016)

We use CDC microdata on cause of death and CPS data on populations by age to create suicide rates for five-year age groups at five-year intervals, further cross-classified by race/ethnicity, education ... [more ▼]

We use CDC microdata on cause of death and CPS data on populations by age to create suicide rates for five-year age groups at five-year intervals, further cross-classified by race/ethnicity, education, and marital status. We examine the suicide history 1990-2010 of U.S. birth cohorts, net of age and cohort linear trends. These de-trended cohort deviations follow familiar patterns: most pronounced in the Baby Boom, least pronounced during the Baby Bust, they illustrate the so-called Easterlin effect. Suicide rates for women show similar patterns as suicide patterns for men. We show persistence of those effects net of micro factors (especially education and marriage) implicated in suicide behavior and correlated at the macro level with relative cohort size. Analysis of suicide patterns over time for high- and low-educated men and women shows that white men with low education face a sharp increase, significantly above the linear time trends, in suicide rates among cohorts born between 1955 and 1970. This bump is mostly unrelated to secular trends of increasing average educational attainment rates, at least if no interaction between age and cohort is involved in the explanation. No obvious pattern related to cohort size is found for African-American high- and low-educated men, which makes sense given the very different historical dynamics for this minority sub-population. [less ▲]

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