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See detailGranting votes: Exposing the political bias of intergovernmental grants using the within-between specification for panel data
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Public Choice (2017), 171(1-2), 223-241

Instead of alleviating fiscal inequalities, intergovernmental grants are often used to fulfill the grantors’ political goals. This study uses a unique panel dataset on the level of more than 500 Croatian ... [more ▼]

Instead of alleviating fiscal inequalities, intergovernmental grants are often used to fulfill the grantors’ political goals. This study uses a unique panel dataset on the level of more than 500 Croatian municipalities over a twelve-year period to uncover to which extent grant distribution is biased due to grantors’ electoral concerns. Instead of the default fixed effects approach to model panel data, we apply a novel within-between specification aimed at uncovering the contextual source of variation, focusing on the effects of electoral concerns on grant allocation within and between municipalities. We find evidence of a substantial political bias in grant allocation both within and between municipalities, particularly when it comes to local-level electoral concerns. The paper offers researchers a new perspective when tackling the issue of politically-biased grant allocation using panel data, particularly in cases where they wish to uncover the simultaneous impact of time-variant and time-invariant factors, or when they cannot apply a quasi-experimental approach due to specific circumstances of the given institutional context. [less ▲]

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See detailProxy politics, economic protest, or traditionalist backlash: Croatia’s referendum on the constitutional definition of marriage
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Europe-Asia Studies (2016), 68(5), 803-825

This article sheds light on the popular sources of opposition to the extension of gay rights in Eastern Europe by analysing the results of the 2013 Croatian referendum on the constitutional definition of ... [more ▼]

This article sheds light on the popular sources of opposition to the extension of gay rights in Eastern Europe by analysing the results of the 2013 Croatian referendum on the constitutional definition of marriage—the first referendum of this kind in Europe. Contrary to popular interpretations, our aggregate-level analysis reveals that the referendum results primarily reflected the pattern of support for the two principal electoral blocs, rather than communities’ traditionalist characteristics or grievances stemming from economic adversity. The article thereby stresses the importance of embedding the issue of contention over gay rights in Eastern Europe into the context of conventional political competition. [less ▲]

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See detailVoting after war: Legacy of conflict and the economy as determinants of electoral support in Croatia
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in Electoral Studies : An International Journal (2016), 42

In spite of a rapidly expanding literature on democratization, elections, and conflict, we lack systematic understanding of what determines electoral results in post-conflict societies. This article ... [more ▼]

In spite of a rapidly expanding literature on democratization, elections, and conflict, we lack systematic understanding of what determines electoral results in post-conflict societies. This article offers a novel initiative in revealing electoral patterns in states recuperating from painful experiences of war by analyzing data from more than 500 Croatian municipalities during five post-war electoral cycles. While the findings suggest voters do respond to parties' economic policies, the underlying pattern of electoral support demonstrates that competition is heavily constrained by the legacy of conflict, with the communities more exposed to the violence being more likely to vote for the principal party of the center-right which led the country into independence and throughout the war. This tendency exhibits a remarkable level of stability over time, which suggests conflict dynamics can become firmly embedded in post-conflict democratic electoral competition e even in societies that are not ethnically diverse. [less ▲]

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See detailResponse to reviews of The Hour of Europe by Charles W. Ingrao and Robert M. Hayden
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Southeastern Europe (2016), 40

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See detailPredgovor
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Goldberg, Jeffrey (Ed.) Obama: Vanjskopolitička doktrina (2016)

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See detailProsperity and peace: Economic interests and war legacy in Croatia’s EU referendum vote
Glaurdic, Josip UL; Vukovic, Vuk

in European Union Politics (2015), 16(4), 577-600

Studies of popular attitudes toward European integration have paid limited attention to the historical roots of voters’ security preferences. Using an original municipality-level data set, we test whether ... [more ▼]

Studies of popular attitudes toward European integration have paid limited attention to the historical roots of voters’ security preferences. Using an original municipality-level data set, we test whether the pattern of voting in Croatia’s 2012 referendum on European Union accession was affected by the legacy of the country’s 1991–1995 war for independence or rather by economic factors. While finding evidence for the impact of the communities’ level of prosperity and structure of economy, our analysis more notably demonstrates that the intensity of the communities’ experience of war had a positive effect on their level of support for European Union membership. This effect also had a strong interactive relationship with the communities’ political allegiances, highlighting the importance not only of historically rooted security issues but also of political actors who make those issues electorally salient. [less ▲]

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See detailYugoslavia’s Dissolution: Between the Scylla of Facts and the Charybdis of Interpretation
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Bieber, Florian (Ed.) Debating the End of Yugoslavia (2014)

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See detailThe owl of Minerva flies only at dusk? British diplomacy on the eve of Yugoslav wars
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in East European Politics & Societies (2013), 27(3), 545-563

Could the Western foreign policy makers have done anything to prevent the violence accompanying the breakup of Yugoslavia? The answer to that question largely depends on their level of awareness of what ... [more ▼]

Could the Western foreign policy makers have done anything to prevent the violence accompanying the breakup of Yugoslavia? The answer to that question largely depends on their level of awareness of what was happening in the South Slavic federation in the run-up to war. This article analyzes a string of newly declassified documents of the British Foreign Office related to the February 1991 visit of a high-level British political delegation to Yugoslavia, together with interviews with some of the meetings’ protagonists. These declassified documents and interviews offer a unique snapshot in the development of the Yugoslav crisis and Britain’s policy in the region. They give us a clear picture of the goals and strategies of the principal Yugoslav players and show us what the West knew about the true nature of the Yugoslav crisis and when. The article’s conclusions are clear. Yugoslavia’s breakup and impending violence did not require great foresight. Their cause was known well in advance because it was preannounced— it was the plan of the Serbian regime of Slobodan Milošević to impose a centralized Yugoslavia upon the other republics or, if that failed, to use force to create a Greater Serbia on Yugoslavia’s ruins. Crucially, British policy at the time did nothing to dissuade Milošević from his plan and likely contributed to his confidence in using violence to pursue the creation of a new and enlarged Serbian state. [less ▲]

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See detailOdgovor na prikaz knjige Vrijeme Europe
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Casopis za Suvremenu Povijest (2013), 44(3), 747-754

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See detailThe West, Milosevic, and the Collapse of Yugoslavia: A Response to David Kanin
Glaurdic, Josip UL

Article for general public (2012)

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See detailIn pursuit of unity: The West and the breakup of Yugoslavia
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in RUSI Journal (2012), 157(1), 70-77

More than twenty years on, the collapse of Yugoslavia still offers salutary lessons on crisis-management and intervention – activities the international community will find no less essential now than in ... [more ▼]

More than twenty years on, the collapse of Yugoslavia still offers salutary lessons on crisis-management and intervention – activities the international community will find no less essential now than in 1991. Drawing on new evidence, this article shows how Western leaders had prescient intelligence on the political currents in Yugoslavia, and yet followed a knee-jerk policy counter to them. The stubborn preference for stability and the familiar at a time of global systemic uncertainty ultimately bore the terrible consequences of Vukovar, Sarajevo and Srebrenica. [less ▲]

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See detailPredgovor hrvatskom izdanju
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Nye, Joseph S. (Ed.) Budućnost moći (2012)

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See detailPredgovor hrvatskom izdanju
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Clinton, Bill (Ed.) Natrag na posao - Zašto trebamo pametnu državu za snažnu ekonomiju (2012)

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See detailRavnodušni realizam: SAD i jugoslavenska kriza, 1987.-1991.
Glaurdic, Josip UL

in Rudolf, Davorin (Ed.) Nastanak suvremene države Hrvatske i dvadeseta obljetnica njezina utemeljenja (2012)

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See detailThe Hour of Europe: Western Powers and the Breakup of Yugoslavia
Glaurdic, Josip UL

Book published by Yale University Press (2011)

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